OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)

[kwabbit]

I wish him the best of luck...he'll need it, and he's one of the best Senators, I don't want to lose him! Sadly I fear that even a bad, Trumpian JR Majewski-like candidate could still make the election only a tossup at best for his re-election prospects. I really don't trust Ohio, even as Brown has the reputation of knowing how to win in it. The state may very well have changed too much now for that to continue.

Just so everyone is aware, here is what we know so far about Senate 2024.

Arizona: Sinema will certainly get a primary challenge as she has been censured by the state party for keeping the filibuster on voting rights.

California: Feinstein has filed papers, however this has been confirmed to only be a technicality and she may not run again. The CA Dem party is also sick of her as they endorsed de Leon over her in 2018.

Delaware: Carper has said he may retire.

Florida: Scott is running again

Indiana: Braun is retiring to run for Governor.

Maine: King has said he may retire.

Maryland: Cardin hasn't said yet, but given his age he may retire.

Massachusetts: Warren is running again.

Michigan: Stabenow is running again.

Nebraska: Fischer is running again.

New Jersey: Menendez is running again.

Ohio: Brown is running again.

Texas: Cruz has filed to run again, though he may still run for President.

Utah: Romney drama

Vermont: if Bernie runs again, he will likely run in the Dem primary but refuse the nomination again.

Virginia: Kaine has filed to run again, and Gov. Glenn Youngkin has openly said he is considering running.

West Virginia: Manchin is running again, and already has endorsements from Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski.

Here’s my take on some of these:

Arizona: I honestly think Sinema will retire. She’s made so many enemies, she’ll probably see the writing on the wall and decide not to run. I think she’ll cash out and get some high paying job in the private sector. Whether or not Sinema runs, I think Ruben Gallego is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Not really sure who republicans will put up.

California: I think Feinstein will retire, she’ll get a lot of pressure from the party to do so. The Democratic race will be wide open. The only person who could maybe clear the field is Gavin Newsom, if he decides to go for Senate instead of a long shot bid for President. Even then, someone would probably run to his left.

Delaware: Not really sure what Carper does. If he retires, Lisa Blunt Rochester is the obvious frontrunner.

Florida: I think Rick Scott is delusional enough to try to run for President. But, he’ll drop out before any primaries take place and will run for re-election. Stephanie Murphy may be his Democratic opponent.

Indiana: I actually think Eric Holcomb may decide to run for this, but someone will probably run to his right.

Maine: I think King retires, and Jared Golden likely takes his place.

Ohio: Sherrod Brown is the underdog, but shouldn’t be ruled out. Not sure who the Republicans will nominate, I expect it to be a large field like it was this year.

Texas: I think Cruz only runs for President if Trump doesn’t. Otherwise, he’ll run for another term in the Senate (and will probably win again)

Utah: I think Romney will retire. If not, he’ll still get a primary challenge (likely by Sean Reyes)

Vermont: Bernie probably runs again with no serious opposition.

Virginia: I do think Glenn Youngkin probably runs. Although, he may run for President if Trump doesn’t. If he wants to finish his term as Governor he could instead challenge Mark Warner in 2026.

West Virginia: Manchin runs again, but will almost certainly lose to whoever Republicans nominate.

First off, uuuggh at Menendez not retiring already!

Second, I think Youngkin will probably try to figure out which incumbent he might have a better chance against, and when: Kaine or Warner. It will probably depend on the environment. I still don't think he'd be able to win though; gubernatorial and senate dynamics can greatly differ, and Youngkin's victory last year came with some of the best timing possible.

Menendez should be primaried. I'm surprised he didn't face a serious challenger in 2018, since his weak challenger got 37%. All the NJ Dem congress people are establishment centrist types, so I don't know if they'd challenge Menendez. Maybe Malinowski can take a shot if he loses to Kean.

[kwabbit]

Any reason to think Moreno's support is durable? He didn't do that well in 2022 and will face a united front of elected officials. IMO he's only the frontrunner now since no one else was running.

[kwabbit]

What's the chance this ends up as tight as Oz vs. McCormick did by the end?

Very unlikely. More likely that Moreno wins by over 10. No election day votes are in but unless LaRose collapsed and most of it went to Dolan then Moreno will win easily.

[kwabbit]

Dolan overtook Moreno suddenly, I’m guessing a big county came in?

Cuyahoga, home to Cleveland. Dolan reps affluent eastern suburbs of Cleveland within Cuyahoga County in the OH senate.