OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LaRose is a bland guy who doesn't inspire the masses.

Users don't understand how important DeWine was Vance was at the same exact Approvals as LaRose and was trailing by similar margins and what happened IAN boosted Johnson, Vance and Budd chances and instead of DeSantis and DeWine winning by 10 it was 20

We are expecting a 65/60 M D vote Turnout in 22 it was close to 62/60 M

[South Dakota Democrat]

Ugh, Sherrod Brown to Bernie Moreno might be a bigger downgrade than Doug Jones to Tommy Tuberville. Even if he flips Delaware County it won't be enough. I think Brown loses by 4-5 points.

I'm absolutely shocked that you think that.  Shocked, I tell you.

Honest to God, why are you even here?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

LaRose is a bland guy who doesn't inspire the masses.

Yeah. He has a lot of name rec right now but he's very uninspiring and I expect him to drop once the primary gets into gear.

[Xing]

I'm absolutely shocked that you think that.  Shocked, I tell you.

Honest to God, why are you even here?

Attention.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LaRose is a bland guy who doesn't inspire the masses.

Yeah. He has a lot of name rec right now but he's very uninspiring and I expect him to drop once the primary gets into gear.

Lol he has the same Approvals as Vance 40 percentage pts the difference is no DeWine I keep saying this because in 2006 and 2018 DeWine was far weaker and Brown won he was very strict in 22


Brown should win by 6 pts just like if DeWine wasn't on the ballot Ryan was polling 6 pts more than Vance and Vance is vulnerable in a Prez Eday like Johnson in 28

That's why I don't make exact maps id Brown wins just in 2012 Biden will carry OH

[Rjjr77]

LaRose is a bland guy who doesn't inspire the masses.

Yeah. He has a lot of name rec right now but he's very uninspiring and I expect him to drop once the primary gets into gear.

Lol he has the same Approvals as Vance 40 percentage pts the difference is no DeWine I keep saying this because in 2006 and 2018 DeWine was far weaker and Brown won he was very strict in 22


Brown should win by 6 pts just like if DeWine wasn't on the ballot Ryan was polling 6 pts more than Vance and Vance is vulnerable in a Prez Eday like Johnson in 28

0% chance Brown wins by 6, unless its Renacci again somehow and Brown still had to spend more than 30 million more than his opponent to underperform his poll numbers.

Brown is a very good candidate and can win, Brown has also never run in a bad democrat year in Ohio, this is going to be the first real test, and he aint winning by 6

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah sure and Biden is leading f Trump 5 pts in QU poll lol a 5 pt race is Wave insurance 2008/12 we won OH in

[Rjjr77]

Yeah sure and Biden is leading f Trump 5 pts in QU poll lol a 5 pt race is Wave insurance 2008/12 we won OH in

2008/12 were a long time ago, Ohio has 2 members of congress now who werent even old enough to rent a car in 2008

[Zedonathin2020]

Issue 1 just failed by LBJ-64 margins, its pretty much "LaOVER" for LaRose at this point

Likely Moreno primary, Tossup/Tilt Brown General

[ProgressiveModerate]

Issue 1 just failed by LBJ-64 margins, its pretty much "LaOVER" for LaRose at this point

Likely Moreno primary, Tossup/Tilt Brown General

I can't tell if this is Sarcasm, but it's honestly not going to fail by *that* much, and ballot initiatives tend to be less partisan than federal Senate elections.

[Zedonathin2020]

Issue 1 just failed by LBJ-64 margins, its pretty much "LaOVER" for LaRose at this point

Likely Moreno primary, Tossup/Tilt Brown General

I can't tell if this is Sarcasm, but it's honestly not going to fail by *that* much, and ballot initiatives tend to be less partisan than federal Senate elections.

I mostly meant in a "This is going to embarrass LaRose and make him look really bad" kind of way.

[Oryxslayer]

Issue 1 just failed by LBJ-64 margins, its pretty much "LaOVER" for LaRose at this point

Likely Moreno primary, Tossup/Tilt Brown General

I can't tell if this is Sarcasm, but it's honestly not going to fail by *that* much, and ballot initiatives tend to be less partisan than federal Senate elections.

I mostly meant in a "This is going to embarrass LaRose and make him look really bad" kind of way.

From the ballot initiative thread:

No one actually thought this would succeed, right?

Ask LaRose

I've always thought it was more to improve his stanting with social conservatives for the Senate primary, through I'm sure Republicans would have liked the buffer to protect against abortion, marijuana and fair redistricting measures.

I would say he now has a rough couple of months ahead. The electorate won't care about this failing in a few weeks, but it will care about November's Abortion and Marijuana questions. LaRose is damned if they succeed, which it the common wisdom, since he's gonna get criticized for not doing enough to help them. And if he alternatively does tie himself to the conservative flagpoles then he's probably gonna lose the Republicans who went 'Yes' to Dolan and drop below Moreno's vote totals.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Riverwalk and Rs say that it's not a blue wave because Trump is tied in Emerson poll but don't pay attention to the poll in OH that shows Brown leading by 13 well I look beyond polls I wait until  we get results

The hypocrisy of R users they can believe it's a close Edays with Trump but there is no way Brown can win

[Rjjr77]

Issue 1 just failed by LBJ-64 margins, its pretty much "LaOVER" for LaRose at this point

Likely Moreno primary, Tossup/Tilt Brown General

I can't tell if this is Sarcasm, but it's honestly not going to fail by *that* much, and ballot initiatives tend to be less partisan than federal Senate elections.

I mostly meant in a "This is going to embarrass LaRose and make him look really bad" kind of way.

From the ballot initiative thread:

No one actually thought this would succeed, right?

Ask LaRose

I've always thought it was more to improve his stanting with social conservatives for the Senate primary, through I'm sure Republicans would have liked the buffer to protect against abortion, marijuana and fair redistricting measures.

I would say he now has a rough couple of months ahead. The electorate won't care about this failing in a few weeks, but it will care about November's Abortion and Marijuana questions. LaRose is damned if they succeed, which it the common wisdom, since he's gonna get criticized for not doing enough to help them. And if he alternatively does tie himself to the conservative flagpoles then he's probably gonna lose the Republicans who went 'Yes' to Dolan and drop below Moreno's vote totals.

The abortion amendment will be problimatic for GOP, but Marijuana is different. There are actually a solid coalition of GOP legislators who back the legalization movement.

LaRose has a bigger problem, whats his lane? hes been affiliated with Kasich too much to be with the conservatives, and hes been with Trump too much to be with the dems, and he struggles to raise the money the other candidates can put in with a snap of their fingers. Hes actually lagged behind other state wide republicans with his big win. I dont see the path. I think at his juncture, the first minority senator from the state of Ohio will be Bernie Moreno

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

LaRose might be problematic in a general given how he's the one tied the most to the unpopular issues. I could see a scenario where Trump wins Ohio by 10 and Brown beats LaRose.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's the scenario where Ds are looking at but Suffolk had it 6 not 10 we won OH before users especially Rs that Obama and Biden and Bill Clinton never won Ohio yes they did and they won FL, CO, WI, NV, MT, NC PA and MI the only one is TX

[SnowLabrador]

LaRose might be problematic in a general given how he's the one tied the most to the unpopular issues. I could see a scenario where Trump wins Ohio by 10 and Brown beats LaRose.

According to the new Emerson poll released today, Brown's outrunning Biden by 11 points against LaRose. Of course, it's Emerson, so it's probably trash, but even that outperformance might not be quite enough.

[Senator Incitatus]

LaRose might be problematic in a general given how he's the one tied the most to the unpopular issues. I could see a scenario where Trump wins Ohio by 10 and Brown beats LaRose.

According to the new Emerson poll released today, Brown's outrunning Biden by 11 points against LaRose. Of course, it's Emerson, so it's probably trash, but even that outperformance might not be quite enough.

How are people reading a poll with an incumbent at 35% as anything other than a likely flip? Brown isn’t running ahead of Biden; he’s running behind. The Republican nominees are just running much further behind Trump because they have much lower name recognition.

[wbrocks67]

LaRose might be problematic in a general given how he's the one tied the most to the unpopular issues. I could see a scenario where Trump wins Ohio by 10 and Brown beats LaRose.

According to the new Emerson poll released today, Brown's outrunning Biden by 11 points against LaRose. Of course, it's Emerson, so it's probably trash, but even that outperformance might not be quite enough.

How are people reading a poll with an incumbent at 35% as anything other than a likely flip? Brown isn’t running ahead of Biden; he’s running behind. The Republican nominees are just running much further behind Trump because they have much lower name recognition.

Because there's lots of Dem-leaning groups that are undecided, particularly young people and black voters.

[Senator Incitatus]

LaRose might be problematic in a general given how he's the one tied the most to the unpopular issues. I could see a scenario where Trump wins Ohio by 10 and Brown beats LaRose.

According to the new Emerson poll released today, Brown's outrunning Biden by 11 points against LaRose. Of course, it's Emerson, so it's probably trash, but even that outperformance might not be quite enough.

How are people reading a poll with an incumbent at 35% as anything other than a likely flip? Brown isn’t running ahead of Biden; he’s running behind. The Republican nominees are just running much further behind Trump because they have much lower name recognition.

Because there's lots of Dem-leaning groups that are undecided, particularly young people and black voters.

And self-evidently a very large number of Trump voters, who are not a Democratic-leaning group.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gas prices are surging War in Ukraine and Israel are driving the gas in Chicago it's 3.41 and SF and Phoenix it's 6.09. It's gonna be lower next yr

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

LaRose might be problematic in a general given how he's the one tied the most to the unpopular issues. I could see a scenario where Trump wins Ohio by 10 and Brown beats LaRose.

According to the new Emerson poll released today, Brown's outrunning Biden by 11 points against LaRose. Of course, it's Emerson, so it's probably trash, but even that outperformance might not be quite enough.

How are people reading a poll with an incumbent at 35% as anything other than a likely flip? Brown isn’t running ahead of Biden; he’s running behind. The Republican nominees are just running much further behind Trump because they have much lower name recognition.

The Presidential race is 45-33, while the Senate is 39-38 with LaRose. So the amount of undecideds is essentially the same in both races.

[SnowLabrador]

Do you all think a third-party candidate will qualify for the ballot? Or will it just be Brown versus his opponent like it was in 2018?

[Rjjr77]

Do you all think a third-party candidate will qualify for the ballot? Or will it just be Brown versus his opponent like it was in 2018?

Ohio has no qualified 3rd parties, and there is no talk of any well known 3rd party challenger. There will be an irrelevant independent either as a Write In or who qualifies but it doesnt look likely.

Its shaping up to be a Sherrod Brown vs. Bernie Moreno with a Moreno 4-6 point win from what I'm hearing

[ProgressiveModerate]

Any thoughts after seeing the Abortion and Weed initiatives?

Obviously, those margins are not realistic for the Senate race, but it does show at least some individual issues work to Dems favor in Ohio, and the "liberal" or Democrat associated side can win statewide ballot initiatives.