🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[Flyersfan232]

Almost 100% identical to BBB for me. Slightly surprising

Note that this could be happenstance - this is always the danger of any spatial model. It could be that you landed on this position by answering questions differently from BBB but ended up in the same place. This is why I would always look into the positioning of the parties per question, which Kieskompas allows you to do.

However, based on what I know of your posting history, I don't find this to be too surprising. BBB have become broader than just a farmers' interest party and hold views somewhere between the center-right and the nationalist right 'blocs' of parties.

how do you know that timmerman reads this thread?

[Flyersfan232]

Yeah, no chance Wilders leads the government.

Omtzigt has now announced that he is willing to be PM, but only in a government consisting of experts. Smart move and could save some of his support, as this is a rather popular idea. But he should really have come up with it earlier. He comes across as too indecisive.

in a event of a pvv first place victory could we see a right wing government lead by a techonatic prime minister?

[Flyersfan232]

the netherlands need a 5% thershold

[Flyersfan232]

off topic but is the king still flying commerical planes?

[Flyersfan232]

Speaker of the Parliament Vera Bergkamp (D66) did not stand for re-election, so one of the first tasks of the newly elected Parliament will be to elect a new speaker. This has proven to be a difficult job over the last years. The investigation into the conduct of former Speaker Khadija Arib (PvdA) being the low point, but there was also much controversy about the limits to freedom of speech in Parliament. According to an adopted note by Parliament, the Speaker has to have 15 competences, among which "solid parliamentary experience", ability to "act with authority", ability to "cooperate well with the parliamentary organization", "standing above the parties", and "management skills".

There is talk about three candidates.

- Roelien Kamminga (VVD) was just elected temporary Speaker and has some experience as Deputy Speaker. But she has only been an MP for 2 years and the speaker of the Senate also comes from the VVD.

- Martin Bosma (PVV), on the other hand, doesn't lack experience: he has been an MP for 17 years now and has much experience as Deputy Speaker. He is well-liked across the parliament, as he has proven to lead debates with authority and humor, and he does not give PVV MPs any privileges. He tried to run for Speaker twice before, but apart from the fact that the PVV doesn't (didn't?) have many friends in parliament, the representative function of the Speaker internationally plus Bosma never disavowing Wilders' "fake parliament" comments from long ago were used as arguments to disqualify him. Additionally, the PVV recently (but before the election) supported an amendment stating that the Speaker always has to come from the opposition. Now that a government with the PVV doesn't seem unlikely anymore, this could be used as an argument against him. Bosma isn't certain to be in the race yet.

- Tom van der Lee (GL-PvdA) already declared his candidacy. He has been in parliament since 2017 - until this year for GL - and has also served as Deputy Speaker. But with the current right-wing configuration of the parliament, electing a GL-PvdA Speaker - who held very political top jobs in GL (head of communications, advisor to former party leaders Femke Halsema and Paul Rosenmöller) before entering parliament - seems a little counterintuitive.

VVD and NSC being the center of the parliament probably means Kamminga should be favored if she makes it to the runoff, but it could get interesting.

and D66/Volt voters who wanted GL/PVDA to be above PVV coming back home, I'd guess?

Exactly.

why isnt the pvv a political party?

[Flyersfan232]

how are talks going???

[Flyersfan232]

This autumn, Ahmed Aboutaleb (PvdA) will resign as mayor of Rotterdam after 15 years. He will not complete his third six-year term.

It is not a surprising decision: while Aboutaleb was often praised internationally (he was elected 'World Mayor 2021') and is still generally well-liked in the city, his support on the city council had been eroding. Three days ago, newspaper AD already published a long-read drawing the conclusion that his time seemed almost up. In addition to having to deal with a coalition (Leefbaar-VVD-D66-DENK) partly skeptical or hostile to him, a young, new generation of council members was unhappy with his inflexible style of governing and his rough style of debating - more characterized by taking than by giving. Recently, Aboutaleb lost a policy battle when he tried to prevent opening hours of bars and restaurants from being extended, and he received severe criticism for personally blocking the Israeli flag from being hoisted after October 7 while the city regularly does so when other countries are affected by calamities. Leefbaar attacked him in the press, which, according to AD, had hurt Aboutaleb, who had hoped to have more credits after such a long time as mayor. At the same time, Aboutaleb continues to be lauded as a great communicator and someone who can build bridges in times of crisis, such as after the mass shooting at September 28 in and around the Erasmus University Medical Center. According to AD, Aboutaleb considered jumping into the race for the GL-PvdA leadership when the government collapsed in July, but the parties had already decided on Frans Timmermans, as Aboutaleb wouldn't have a sufficiently green and left-wing profile.

Meanwhile, PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB will be negotiating in a mansion in Hilversum in which the previous three formations also took place. All financial specialists will also be part of the negotiations and it has been confirmed that the parties will not just talk about 'upholding the rule of law', but also about other subjects: nitrogen, climate, immigration, 'security of existence', healthcare, housing, good governance, international security, and public finances. This means the formation truly seems to be kicking off despite NSC clearly having cold feet. There are still no leaks yet, which indicates a very cautious type of harmony. To be continued...

when should agoverment be formed?

[Flyersfan232]

There is no deadline. If the formation succeeds, I'd expect it to be finished somewhere from late March to May.

After retracting the anti-Islam draft bills, today Wilders got another roadblock for a coalition out of the way by sending out this very strong statement in support of Ukraine. Him doing this pre-emptively is also important: he is really making it difficult for VVD and NSC to pull the plug on the negotiations.

https://twitter.com/geertwilderspvv/status/1745832719659982877?s=20

Prime minister wilders is getting more likely everyday it seems

[Flyersfan232]

Wilders says there is a "problem" with the formation because of the Senate's adoption of the new asylum law. He won't let the formation collapse, but it is clear he'll demand something in exchange for this. This also changes the dynamic in the formation, from Wilders having to give in on all sorts of things to Yesilgöz having to defend herself. NSC and BBB also oppose this law.

Since it seems unlikely the same Senate will retract the law, some media flout the idea of a compromise being that municipalities are obliged to take in asylum seekers but the law would not be enforced or municipalities would not be penalized for refusing asylum seekers. A very Dutch solution.

Meanwhile, Yesilgöz' position as VVD party leader is incredibly shaky. The right wing of the party is seething. Her inability to force a common course across both Houses of Parliament is seen as a sign of major weakness. Still, I think she will hold on for now: it is not as if any successor would inherit a better position.

Meanwhile, the PVV reaches an all-time high in yesterday's Peil poll and is more than four times as big as the VVD, who have lost 50% of their support since the election:

update?

[Flyersfan232]

The formation of a new coalition isn't going too smoothly, it seems. At this weekend's VVD congress, Dilan Yesilgöz said that "If you are an expert in sending angry messages into the world, you can even win elections", evidently hinting at Wilders. He hit back on Twitter, calling Yesilgöz "sour". And afterwards, Wilders said on Twitter he hopes the formation succeeds so "new elections are not needed": a clear hint towards the fact that the PVV would be the biggest virtual benefactor of new elections, while the VVD would lose particularly badly, although you would always have to see how that plays out in reality. Hard to see how new elections would be beneficial to anyone, though. Based on the polls, the math for a potential coalition doesn't change.

According to NRC, the biggest issue dividing the parties is actually not the rule of law or immigration, but government finances, with VVD and NSC advocating for austerity and budget cuts while PVV and BBB oppose this and have plans to increase spending, such as on abolishing copayments in healthcare and decreasing rents for people in social housing.

Today's Ipsos I&O poll has the PVV losing 2 virtual seats compared to December, but with 45 seats they would still gain 8 seats compared to the general election and thereby be the biggest winner by far. Meanwhile, 49% of all voters think the formation is taking place too slowly, 37% think it is taking place at the right pace, and only 1% think it is going too quickly. Voters of BBB, VVD and PVV more often say it is taking place at the right pace.

https://twitter.com/Opiniepanel/status/1752300864692203593?s=20

how do you think the the issue will be deal with?

[Flyersfan232]

NSC have pulled out of the negotiations - or so it seems. "Sources around the party" (i.e. spindoctors) claim there is no room for a majority government but NSC could still support a minority government. Either this could be a true rupture between NSC and the other parties, or they are trying to push the VVD into the coalition so they can support it from the outside - essentially to undo Yesilgöz' strategic move ("we won't enter any coalition"). But if NSC will truly be the ones making the formation of a coalition consisting of these four parties impossible, and if the other three close the ranks, I suspect NSC will pay the electoral price - most of their voters want this coalition. At the same time, this could be just NSC making strategic manoeuvres. Now we have to wait and see what Plasterk will advise next Monday.

why wait to monday?

[Flyersfan232]

https://twitter.com/geertwilderspvv/status/1756079707727016250?t=RuaeyWWX2kYZSje...

He's going for an election alright.

he do this all time as long  as he been on twitter

[Flyersfan232]

Dutch media are suggesting there is a breakthrough at NATO: Mark Rutte could be appointed Secretary General before the end of March. In that case, the new VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz would become acting Prime Minister as long as the formation is not finished yet - possibly increasing her chances of becoming PM in a new government too.

Biden trying to stop wilders from becoming prime minister?

[Flyersfan232]

Wasn't Stoltenberg scheduled to stay until October regardless of the decision of his successor?

Yes, but to me this seems to be the sort of thing that could very well be 'scheduled' until it isn't anymore.

What's the most scenario ahead now? Technocrat cabinet and snap elections? Or minority government with PVV support?

Wilders' decision makes the formation of a PVV-VVD-NSC-BBB government more likely, not less likely. It was always clear that VVD and NSC weren't going to accept Wilders as PM. I always expected this. This is the sacrifice Wilders has to make to make the formation of this coalition work.

It looks like the four parties are now heading towards the formation of a government in which all four parties are equally committed to a non-detailed coalition agreement, but the party leaders are outside the government and stay in parliament - a form of government which they would then call extraparliamentary.

will wilders get to pick the person to become prime minister if so who?

[Flyersfan232]

will wilders get to pick the person to become prime minister if so who?

I don't think he'll get to pick the PM singlehandedly, but it stands to reason that he'll have a big voice in it. It will probably have to be someone with a clear right-wing profile.

who do u think it will be?

[Flyersfan232]

A little more elaboration on the past period. When Kim Putters became informateur, the left-wing parties claimed the formation had to start from scratch again and all the time in between had been wasted. It was easy to draw this conclusion at the time, but it didn't prove to be true: the 'fundaments for constitutionality' the four leaders had agreed on under Plasterk were essential for the next step to be taken.

When Putters started his job, he first organized a number of roundtable discussions with a number of (mostly academic) experts to inform himself: on experiences with formations in general, on public governance, on parliamentary history, and on an international comparative perspective on the formation of non-majority governments (with specific attention for Denmark).

Then, Putters invited all 15 party leaders to share their perspective on the next steps in the formation, which only Stephan van Baarle (DENK) was not willing to do (in protest of any attempts to govern with the PVV). Esther Ouwehand (PvdD) wanted centrist options without the PVV to be investigated, but all the other party leaders supported the investigation of some sort of combination of PVV-VVD-NSC-BBB. Frans Timmermans (GL-PvdA) explicitly excluded support for any type of government that depends on the PVV, and Geert Wilders (PVV) explicitly excluded support for a minority government without the PVV in it.

Given that we have negative parliamentarism, an important question is whether any potential minority government would be sent home immediately. GL-PvdA and D66 didn't exclude this possibility if Wilders were to become PM. Volt said this would depend on the type of government and the content of the coalition agreement.

CDA, D66, SP, FVD, SGP, ChristenUnie, Volt and JA21 say they are willing to judge proposals by their content and not to vote against everything a minority government would propose. GL-PvdA will not "cooperate when the PVV is involved in a proposal", with only a limited number of exceptions (this all sounds very vague - in Dutch it does too).

CDA and SGP want a non-extensive coalition agreement; GL-PvdA, D66, PvdD and FVD support this idea but are skeptical about the chances of this happening; the VVD supports the idea, but wants more detailed attention for the 'fundamental principles' of the rule of law, government finances, and the international position of the Netherlands; Pieter Omtzigt (NSC) supports the idea, but explicitly wants a more detailed agreement on "what he finds to be important" (literal quote), "especially regarding a solid financial framework". PVV, BBB, SP and PvdD (mentioned before too...) have no preference for a non-extensive agreement.

Then, Putters negotiated with the parties involved and concluded a "program government" should be formed, i.e. a government with a non-extensive coalition agreement in which all political leaders take place in parliament and 50% of the ministers come from "outside politics". Putters thinks an agreement should be made on "for example these" 10 topics: asylum and immigration; nitrogen, nature, water, agriculture, fisheries and food security; social security and purchasing power; healthcare; public housing; good governance; public safety; finances; rule of law; international affairs and a business-friendly environment.

What now?

Some of my conclusions:

- At different points in the formation, VVD and NSC tried to stay as far away from this government as possible - and both took a severe hit in the polls for doing so. The majority of their voters want this. They now seem to have come to the conclusion that this option is the only workable option. An option in which either the VVD or NSC would provide outside support to a government of PVV, BBB and one of VVD or NSC would not be workable, because the VVD understandably demanded 'the same level of commitment' from all parties.

- For the sake of their position internationally (VVD) and their credibility nationally (NSC), it is in the interest of VVD and NSC to claim this is very much not a regular four-party government. For the sake of the stability of this future coalition, it is in the interest of PVV and BBB to not openly speak out against this narrative, even though these two parties would prefer a regular four-party government. The term 'extraparliamentary government' was sent to the bin by Putters because it makes no sense (every government always depends on not having a parliamentary majority against it), so 'program government' it's going to be.

- It is in the interest of the left-wing opposition to claim this is very much a regular government in the making, only with some window dressing involved.

- The truth will probably be somewhere in the middle, but could veer towards either end. If the coalition agreement ends up very extensive and the vast majority of the ministers end up coming from the four parties, it would be difficult to dispute the left's conclusion. But if the coalition agreement will not be very extensive, there is actually a lot of room for parliament, and many ministers come from outside politics, then this is indeed an innovation in Dutch politics.

- Will the coalition agreement actually be non-detailed? We have to wait and see. But usually, when distrust is greater among future coalition partners, the coalition agreement will be more extensive. Based on that lesson, I would be surprised if this coalition agreement truly ends up so non-detailed.

- Left-wing newspapers wrote angry 'editorial comments' claiming VVD and NSC had easily given up their position and are now forming a government with the PVV. I don't think that's the mood in the country, however. This took four months. Most people are getting annoyed with the slow formation and don't really care about PVV or no PVV.

- Wilders had to give up his claim on the PM position and has said he did so out of love for the country. This will definitely strengthen him: it looks statesmanlike, and by staying in parliament with more distance from the government, it is probably easier to remain popular too. However, afterwards, Wilders stated that regarding his PM ambitions there was "one party that said: fine" (BBB), "one party that said: preferably not, but we won't block it" (the VVD), and "one that said: absolutely not" (NSC). Wilders said Omtzigt blocking him as PM would be "unfair, undemocratic, and constitutionally incorrect".

- Important to note that Wilders also has to walk a difficult tightrope here, as part of the PVV base will have difficulty understanding why Wilders as leader of the biggest party cannot become PM. They would perhaps become angry if Wilders had left the impression he had given away the position too easily. Now, I think he ended up as the net winner of this. The issue regarding Wilders' PM ambitions overshadowed the bigger conclusion: that the negotiations on actual policy between the four parties are finally taking off again, and that they found a way to move forward in terms of government structure too.

is it possible putters could be the prime minister of this government

[Flyersfan232]

who are the candidates suspected by the media to be prime minister?

[Flyersfan232]

The Corbynization of GL-PvdA continues — but in this case it's despite the efforts of the party leader, Frans Timmermans, who tries to prevent this but evidently isn't in control. Former GL youth leader and loudmouth Sabine Scharwachter already did considerable damage to the party in the runup to the election when she kept insisting on the slogan 'From the river to the sea' and on the idea that October 7 wasn't a pogrom, even trying to make Timmermans take back his words on this. In February, she called for a 'February Intifada', as an analogy to the February strikes in WWII in Amsterdam to protect Jews — it cannot get much more perverse.

Then, when the Amsterdam Holocaust Museum was opened some two weeks ago and Israeli president Herzog visited for the occasion, GL-PvdA MP Kati Piri led the boycott movement against Herzog's visit. Herzog came anyway and the subsequent protest next to the museum completely overshadowed the opening, with slurs ('cancer Jews', 'Hamas is my brother') being shouted at Jewish children and Holocaust survivors coming to visit. In the public opinion, GL-PvdA is the party tied to these protests — not a great look. As a result, Ronny Naftaniel, a prominent moderate Jewish voice on the Israeli-Arab conflict, cancelled his PvdA membership after 45 years. Notable that Timmermans didn't distance himself from Piri but didn't provide vocal support for her position either.

And yesterday, the Netherlands reached another low point: a concert by Jewish singer Lenny Kuhr (74 years old) was interrupted by 'anti-Zionist' activists, who intimidated Kuhr and called her a terrorist. GL-PvdA seems to be the only major party having trouble calling this incident for what it is: antisemitism. Scharwachter, again, has the worst takes on this. GL (she's not a PvdA member and was opposed to the merger) is either unwilling or unable to throw her out. De Telegraaf is having a field day in describing the situation within GL-PvdA and so do the right-wing parties.

and the government formation what the update there?

[Flyersfan232]

any update?

[Flyersfan232]

RTL Nieuws states that it is indeed Ronald Plasterk who is being considered as PM candidate. Other sources have not yet been able to confirm this.

If true, PvdA voters must be over the moon. Finally a PM from their party again! /s Although in reality the PvdA board would certainly terminate his party membership before his inauguration - if he hasn't done so himself already.

maybe he form his own party

[Flyersfan232]

https://nltimes.nl/2024/05/14/next-dutch-pm-labour-partys-ronald-plasterk-emerges-wilders-first-choice

[Flyersfan232]

Would Plasterk be the first atheist Dutch PM?

"...he is an outspoken atheist. In 1997 he coined the term ietsisme ("somethingism") to refer to the religious belief that the Christian God does not exist, but that there is some greater force that created the universe and governs it. This position is roughly equivalent to 18th century Deism. He first strongly criticized the belief on intellectual grounds, calling it a "poor and irritating phenomenon", but later claimed that it was a mix of atheism and nostalgia, and much more sympathetic "than the idea of a cruel God that wants this misery"."

There have been four prime ministers who were irreligious at the time they became PM. De Meester (1905-1908) was atheïst. Drees and Den Uyl were brought up protestant but left the church and were agnostic apparently. I am not sure about Wim Kok. He was never religious but i don't know if he was actually an atheist

Wilders is a atheist himself i believe