Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Torie]

There is certainly a possibility for a VRA lawsuit given that another majority minority CD could easily be drawn in Atlanta and yet isn't...

You could also potentially sue to make a majority minority 12th.

There is 0 chance of the Augusta Savanah seat happening until dems win a trifecta. Pure hope for dems. If dems were going to sue they would have sued in 2012 for that.

My guess is if this map passes , Georgia Dems will sue for a 4th black seat in Atlanta after they win the governorship . You can draw one now probably as well while only touching the 4 Dem sink Blobs so not sure why the GA GOP Doesn't just do it. It wouldn't change the partisanship of any other seats but a court might change up the map more than necessary to get that 4th black district. Waste of time to sue right now.

What makes you believe the Gwinnett based seat is not a performing black seat, and/or in a Dem primary, voting is race based? There is next to no VRA risk with the seat as drawn. I suspect a majority of the voters in this seat in a Dem primary are black. If so, game over in a seat that  is safe Dem. How many racist whites vote in Dem primaries in this portion of the globe?

[lfromnj]

There is certainly a possibility for a VRA lawsuit given that another majority minority CD could easily be drawn in Atlanta and yet isn't...

You could also potentially sue to make a majority minority 12th.

There is 0 chance of the Augusta Savanah seat happening until dems win a trifecta. Pure hope for dems. If dems were going to sue they would have sued in 2012 for that.

My guess is if this map passes , Georgia Dems will sue for a 4th black seat in Atlanta after they win the governorship . You can draw one now probably as well while only touching the 4 Dem sink Blobs so not sure why the GA GOP Doesn't just do it. It wouldn't change the partisanship of any other seats but a court might change up the map more than necessary to get that 4th black district. Waste of time to sue right now.

What makes you believe the Gwinnett based seat is not a performing black seat, and/or in a Dem primary, voting is race based? There is next to no VRA risk with the seat as drawn. I suspect a majority of the voters in this seat in a Dem primary are black. If so, game over in a seat that  is safe Dem. How many racist whites vote in Dem primaries in this portion of the globe?

I don't really believe that, and I don't think that the 11th would either although the Georgia district courts will likely get more friendly for Dems. I think higher courts would strike it down. I still believe the safest move is to let Democrats draw the 4 districts within the blob.

[Skill and Chance]

There is certainly a possibility for a VRA lawsuit given that another majority minority CD could easily be drawn in Atlanta and yet isn't...

You could also potentially sue to make a majority minority 12th.

There is 0 chance of the Augusta Savanah seat happening until dems win a trifecta. Pure hope for dems. If dems were going to sue they would have sued in 2012 for that.

My guess is if this map passes , Georgia Dems will sue for a 4th black seat in Atlanta after they win the governorship . You can draw one now probably as well while only touching the 4 Dem sink Blobs so not sure why the GA GOP Doesn't just do it. It wouldn't change the partisanship of any other seats but a court might change up the map more than necessary to get that 4th black district. Waste of time to sue right now.

What makes you believe the Gwinnett based seat is not a performing black seat, and/or in a Dem primary, voting is race based? There is next to no VRA risk with the seat as drawn. I suspect a majority of the voters in this seat in a Dem primary are black. If so, game over in a seat that  is safe Dem. How many racist whites vote in Dem primaries in this portion of the globe?

I don't really believe that, and I don't think that the 11th would either although the Georgia district courts will likely get more friendly for Dems. I think higher courts would strike it down. I still believe the safest move is to let Democrats draw the 4 districts within the blob.

The judges are technically elected with opponents, but it's nonpartisan and unseating the original gov appointees is still very rare in the GA system. 

[lfromnj]

There is certainly a possibility for a VRA lawsuit given that another majority minority CD could easily be drawn in Atlanta and yet isn't...

You could also potentially sue to make a majority minority 12th.

There is 0 chance of the Augusta Savanah seat happening until dems win a trifecta. Pure hope for dems. If dems were going to sue they would have sued in 2012 for that.

My guess is if this map passes , Georgia Dems will sue for a 4th black seat in Atlanta after they win the governorship . You can draw one now probably as well while only touching the 4 Dem sink Blobs so not sure why the GA GOP Doesn't just do it. It wouldn't change the partisanship of any other seats but a court might change up the map more than necessary to get that 4th black district. Waste of time to sue right now.

What makes you believe the Gwinnett based seat is not a performing black seat, and/or in a Dem primary, voting is race based? There is next to no VRA risk with the seat as drawn. I suspect a majority of the voters in this seat in a Dem primary are black. If so, game over in a seat that  is safe Dem. How many racist whites vote in Dem primaries in this portion of the globe?

I don't really believe that, and I don't think that the 11th would either although the Georgia district courts will likely get more friendly for Dems. I think higher courts would strike it down. I still believe the safest move is to let Democrats draw the 4 districts within the blob.

The judges are technically elected with opponents, but it's nonpartisan and unseating the original gov appointees is still very rare in the GA system. 

I am talking about a Federal VRA case. and the district courts I still highly doubt anything happens

[Skill and Chance]

There is certainly a possibility for a VRA lawsuit given that another majority minority CD could easily be drawn in Atlanta and yet isn't...

You could also potentially sue to make a majority minority 12th.

There is 0 chance of the Augusta Savanah seat happening until dems win a trifecta. Pure hope for dems. If dems were going to sue they would have sued in 2012 for that.

My guess is if this map passes , Georgia Dems will sue for a 4th black seat in Atlanta after they win the governorship . You can draw one now probably as well while only touching the 4 Dem sink Blobs so not sure why the GA GOP Doesn't just do it. It wouldn't change the partisanship of any other seats but a court might change up the map more than necessary to get that 4th black district. Waste of time to sue right now.

What makes you believe the Gwinnett based seat is not a performing black seat, and/or in a Dem primary, voting is race based? There is next to no VRA risk with the seat as drawn. I suspect a majority of the voters in this seat in a Dem primary are black. If so, game over in a seat that  is safe Dem. How many racist whites vote in Dem primaries in this portion of the globe?

I don't really believe that, and I don't think that the 11th would either although the Georgia district courts will likely get more friendly for Dems. I think higher courts would strike it down. I still believe the safest move is to let Democrats draw the 4 districts within the blob.

The judges are technically elected with opponents, but it's nonpartisan and unseating the original gov appointees is still very rare in the GA system. 

I am talking about a Federal VRA case. and the district courts I still highly doubt anything happens

OK, makes sense.  More friendly because they have that pre-approval from the home state senators tradition for federal district courts, right?

[lfromnj]

There is certainly a possibility for a VRA lawsuit given that another majority minority CD could easily be drawn in Atlanta and yet isn't...

You could also potentially sue to make a majority minority 12th.

There is 0 chance of the Augusta Savanah seat happening until dems win a trifecta. Pure hope for dems. If dems were going to sue they would have sued in 2012 for that.

My guess is if this map passes , Georgia Dems will sue for a 4th black seat in Atlanta after they win the governorship . You can draw one now probably as well while only touching the 4 Dem sink Blobs so not sure why the GA GOP Doesn't just do it. It wouldn't change the partisanship of any other seats but a court might change up the map more than necessary to get that 4th black district. Waste of time to sue right now.

What makes you believe the Gwinnett based seat is not a performing black seat, and/or in a Dem primary, voting is race based? There is next to no VRA risk with the seat as drawn. I suspect a majority of the voters in this seat in a Dem primary are black. If so, game over in a seat that  is safe Dem. How many racist whites vote in Dem primaries in this portion of the globe?

I don't really believe that, and I don't think that the 11th would either although the Georgia district courts will likely get more friendly for Dems. I think higher courts would strike it down. I still believe the safest move is to let Democrats draw the 4 districts within the blob.

The judges are technically elected with opponents, but it's nonpartisan and unseating the original gov appointees is still very rare in the GA system. 

I am talking about a Federal VRA case. and the district courts I still highly doubt anything happens

OK, makes sense.  More friendly because they have that pre-approval from the home state senators tradition for federal district courts, right?

Bingo

[lfromnj]

Is McBath the first black congressperson ever drawn out outside of court ordered such as Cleo fields? I guess Butterfield but that isn't really a full drawn out.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Is McBath the first black congressperson ever drawn out outside of court ordered such as Cleo fields? I guess Butterfield but that isn't really a full drawn out.

Well the obvious answer is the redeemers period when states like South Carolina drew districts trying to dilute black voting power when violence proved not enough. A more recent case is Hansen Clarke was drawn into a seat with Gary Peters in Michigan 2013.

[lfromnj]

Is McBath the first black congressperson ever drawn out outside of court ordered such as Cleo fields? I guess Butterfield but that isn't really a full drawn out.

Well the obvious answer is the redeemers period when states like South Carolina drew districts trying to dilute black voting power when violence proved not enough. A more recent case is Hansen Clarke was drawn into a seat with Gary Peters in Michigan 2013.

True I forgot about post reconstruction. Hansen Clarke is interesting I guess although I am pretty sure that was a major upset?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Is McBath the first black congressperson ever drawn out outside of court ordered such as Cleo fields? I guess Butterfield but that isn't really a full drawn out.

Well the obvious answer is the redeemers period when states like South Carolina drew districts trying to dilute black voting power when violence proved not enough. A more recent case is Hansen Clarke was drawn into a seat with Gary Peters in Michigan 2013.

True I forgot about post reconstruction. Hansen Clarke is interesting I guess although I am pretty sure that was a major upset?

Not sure, Peters did have longer rootes in what became Clarke’s distirct. Clarke’s constituency got split between Peters and Conyers

[lfromnj]

Is McBath the first black congressperson ever drawn out outside of court ordered such as Cleo fields? I guess Butterfield but that isn't really a full drawn out.

Well the obvious answer is the redeemers period when states like South Carolina drew districts trying to dilute black voting power when violence proved not enough. A more recent case is Hansen Clarke was drawn into a seat with Gary Peters in Michigan 2013.

True I forgot about post reconstruction. Hansen Clarke is interesting I guess although I am pretty sure that was a major upset?

Not sure, Peters did have longer rootes in what became Clarke’s distirct. Clarke’s constituency got split between Peters and Conyers

Fair enough, although depopulation of Detroit  kind of did force it. Clarke still had a solid chance in that anyway. McBath just got nuked.

[Adam Griffin]

There is certainly a possibility for a VRA lawsuit given that another majority minority CD could easily be drawn in Atlanta and yet isn't...

You could also potentially sue to make a majority minority 12th.

There is 0 chance of the Augusta Savanah seat happening until dems win a trifecta. Pure hope for dems. If dems were going to sue they would have sued in 2012 for that.

My guess is if this map passes , Georgia Dems will sue for a 4th black seat in Atlanta after they win the governorship . You can draw one now probably as well while only touching the 4 Dem sink Blobs so not sure why the GA GOP Doesn't just do it. It wouldn't change the partisanship of any other seats but a court might change up the map more than necessary to get that 4th black district. Waste of time to sue right now.

What makes you believe the Gwinnett based seat is not a performing black seat, and/or in a Dem primary, voting is race based? There is next to no VRA risk with the seat as drawn. I suspect a majority of the voters in this seat in a Dem primary are black. If so, game over in a seat that  is safe Dem. How many racist whites vote in Dem primaries in this portion of the globe?

Based on the current VAP numbers alone and adjusting for lower Latino/Asian turnout, I'd estimate roughly 50% of the Democratic GE electorate is black; whites would be around 20%. In primaries, black share would usually be less, but the large Latino & Asian vote there that drops-off between generals and primaries likely ends up boosting the black share to a small but absolute majority even then.

[Torie]

Mirror, mirror on the all, why oh why on Ifromnj’s planet is there a VRA case after all?  Granted, the water does taste funny in NJ, so perhaps it is in the water.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Mirror, mirror on the all, why oh why on Ifromnj’s planet is there a VRA case after all?  Granted, the water does taste funny in NJ, so perhaps it is in the water.

Yea, I think a lot of people assume that since McBath is black and in the south she’s in a minority majority seat, when in actually Bordeaux is in a bigger minority seat. Black people do actually win in non-majority white seats these days (Neguese, Delgado, Underwood, Ellison etc.)

[Torie]

The above poster, Mr. Leecannon, is on to something. Middle to upper middle class white (Asians too, whatever) Democrats (of which there are a substantial number) in the prosperous suburbs of Atlanta have no problems whatsoever voting for a black in either Dem primaries or the General election. Provided that a seat (e.g. and i.e. GA-07 as drawn here) is safely Dem because there are enough of such bourgeoisie white and Asian Dem professionals, Gingles does not apply at all to this particular patch of real estate, and thus the VRA has no application whatsoever. The fact that blacks are very thin on the ground but nevertheless elected a black in the existing GA-06 with similar demographics is dispositive evidence that racists are equally thin on the ground in the area. Case closed. It's time to move on. Any VRA case that is filed here should be not only dismissed but found to be vexatious and  sanctioned, with the lawyers subject to discipline.

[Nyvin]

The above poster, Mr. Leecannon, is on to something. Middle to upper middle class white (Asians too, whatever) Democrats (of which there are a substantial number) in the prosperous suburbs of Atlanta have no problems whatsoever voting for a black in either Dem primaries or the General election. Provided that a seat (e.g. and i.e. GA-07 as drawn here) is safely Dem because there are enough of such bourgeoisie white and Asian Dem professionals, Gingles does not apply at all to this particular patch of real estate, and thus the VRA has no application whatsoever. The fact that blacks are very thin on the ground but nevertheless elected a black in the existing GA-06 with similar demographics is dispositive evidence that racists are equally thin on the ground in the area. Case closed. It's time to move on. Any VRA case that is filed here should be not only dismissed but found to be vexatious and  sanctioned, with the lawyers subject to discipline.

Imagine how hardcore Democrats could gerrymander Georgia in 2031 with this in mind.

[Oryxslayer]

The above poster, Mr. Leecannon, is on to something. Middle to upper middle class white (Asians too, whatever) Democrats (of which there are a substantial number) in the prosperous suburbs of Atlanta have no problems whatsoever voting for a black in either Dem primaries or the General election. Provided that a seat (e.g. and i.e. GA-07 as drawn here) is safely Dem because there are enough of such bourgeoisie white and Asian Dem professionals, Gingles does not apply at all to this particular patch of real estate, and thus the VRA has no application whatsoever. The fact that blacks are very thin on the ground but nevertheless elected a black in the existing GA-06 with similar demographics is dispositive evidence that racists are equally thin on the ground in the area. Case closed. It's time to move on. Any VRA case that is filed here should be not only dismissed but found to be vexatious and  sanctioned, with the lawyers subject to discipline.

Yes, GA-06 is not protected. Maybe a separate court case challenging another Atlanta seat would change it, but it was majority White after the 2020 census so a dilution claim would be tenuous.

The better claim that I expect to be made is section 2 on GA-13 and the surrounding Cobb/S Suburb region. 4 and 5 got unpacked and are Whiter, but 13 is even more of an AA pack on the map and >85% minority. It's unwieldy geographically, four south suburbs and Cobb counties are cracked, and we get new seats like GA-14 taking in minority voters from the region to prevent another minority seat. The goal would be to unpack the 13th by having it take in a bit more of the outlying south suburbs like Fayette, and then create a new majority AA seat in the west suburbs/ATL/Cobb. I'm not sure what seat would become said new seat, probably GA-11, but the resulting shifts would probably push GA-06 further beyond the pale. McBath could run in this potential western seat cause it would no doubt include Marietta, but it would have almost none of her former seat.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The above poster, Mr. Leecannon, is on to something. Middle to upper middle class white (Asians too, whatever) Democrats (of which there are a substantial number) in the prosperous suburbs of Atlanta have no problems whatsoever voting for a black in either Dem primaries or the General election. Provided that a seat (e.g. and i.e. GA-07 as drawn here) is safely Dem because there are enough of such bourgeoisie white and Asian Dem professionals, Gingles does not apply at all to this particular patch of real estate, and thus the VRA has no application whatsoever. The fact that blacks are very thin on the ground but nevertheless elected a black in the existing GA-06 with similar demographics is dispositive evidence that racists are equally thin on the ground in the area. Case closed. It's time to move on. Any VRA case that is filed here should be not only dismissed but found to be vexatious and  sanctioned, with the lawyers subject to discipline.

Imagine how hardcore Democrats could gerrymander Georgia in 2031 with this in mind.

It is 100% fact that the VRA is actually a hindrance to extreme democrat gerrymanders.  Without it democrats (if they controlled the state) could draw 3 seats they could win in South Carolina. With it the most is two, and only one of them safe.

[Stuart98]

No VRA argument in the north end of metro Atlanta, but that was never the area there was any question about. The VRA case would be in the much poorer southern end of the metro.

The above poster, Mr. Leecannon, is on to something. Middle to upper middle class white (Asians too, whatever) Democrats (of which there are a substantial number) in the prosperous suburbs of Atlanta have no problems whatsoever voting for a black in either Dem primaries or the General election. Provided that a seat (e.g. and i.e. GA-07 as drawn here) is safely Dem because there are enough of such bourgeoisie white and Asian Dem professionals, Gingles does not apply at all to this particular patch of real estate, and thus the VRA has no application whatsoever. The fact that blacks are very thin on the ground but nevertheless elected a black in the existing GA-06 with similar demographics is dispositive evidence that racists are equally thin on the ground in the area. Case closed. It's time to move on. Any VRA case that is filed here should be not only dismissed but found to be vexatious and  sanctioned, with the lawyers subject to discipline.

Imagine how hardcore Democrats could gerrymander Georgia in 2031 with this in mind.

It is 100% fact that the VRA is actually a hindrance to extreme democrat gerrymanders.  Without it democrats (if they controlled the state) could draw 3 seats they could win in South Carolina. With it the most is two, and only one of them safe.

Not true; here's a (probably) VRA compliant SC map with 3 D winnable seats (though only one is safe):

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

No VRA argument in the north end of metro Atlanta, but that was never the area there was any question about. The VRA case would be in the much poorer southern end of the metro.

The above poster, Mr. Leecannon, is on to something. Middle to upper middle class white (Asians too, whatever) Democrats (of which there are a substantial number) in the prosperous suburbs of Atlanta have no problems whatsoever voting for a black in either Dem primaries or the General election. Provided that a seat (e.g. and i.e. GA-07 as drawn here) is safely Dem because there are enough of such bourgeoisie white and Asian Dem professionals, Gingles does not apply at all to this particular patch of real estate, and thus the VRA has no application whatsoever. The fact that blacks are very thin on the ground but nevertheless elected a black in the existing GA-06 with similar demographics is dispositive evidence that racists are equally thin on the ground in the area. Case closed. It's time to move on. Any VRA case that is filed here should be not only dismissed but found to be vexatious and  sanctioned, with the lawyers subject to discipline.

Imagine how hardcore Democrats could gerrymander Georgia in 2031 with this in mind.

It is 100% fact that the VRA is actually a hindrance to extreme democrat gerrymanders.  Without it democrats (if they controlled the state) could draw 3 seats they could win in South Carolina. With it the most is two, and only one of them safe.

Not true; here's a (probably) VRA compliant SC map with 3 D winnable seats (though only one is safe):

Sorry should’ve been more specific. You can draw a vra compliant map with three Dems seats, but without extreme gerrymandering it’s hard to create multiple safe seats for democrats. I even have created a map that’s 4-3 dem with massive snakey precinct cutting districts. The VRA is an obstacle to extreme democratic gerrymandering. But it also prevents democratic shut outs in Louisiana, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, and South Carolina

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Seems like they moved my hometown of Warner Robins into GA-02 from GA-08. I might have to make a go at that seat in the next favorable cycle 👀.

[Stuart98]

Redid most of my fair GA map




There are 5 majority black districts, 1 majority minority district, and 2 more districts that are <60% white. Splits in various elections:

Senate 2016: 9-5 R
Pres 2016, LG 2018, AG 2018: 8-6 R
Gov 2018, all 2020 elections: 7-7

[Stuart98]

Sorry should’ve been more specific. You can draw a vra compliant map with three Dems seats, but without extreme gerrymandering it’s hard to create multiple safe seats for democrats.

That's more down to bad geography than the VRA; too many dems locked up in 60% R areas in Greenville, Spartanburg, and Rock Hill with no clean way to put them in a dem/competitive district (at least with 7 districts; my 11 district CRR map has a lean R Greenville/Spartanburg district).

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Sorry should’ve been more specific. You can draw a vra compliant map with three Dems seats, but without extreme gerrymandering it’s hard to create multiple safe seats for democrats.

That's more down to bad geography than the VRA; too many dems locked up in 60% R areas in Greenville, Spartanburg, and Rock Hill with no clean way to put them in a dem/competitive district (at least with 7 districts; my 11 district CRR map has a lean R Greenville/Spartanburg district).

Your 7-7 map is somewhat different from mine as you made a lean D seat in Augusta and a lean R seat in the Milton area instead of the other way around.

[Torie]

Any VRA legal analyst who thinks the odds are more than highly remote that SCOTUS will invalidate this division of the 4 spokes of the wheel between Democrats, because the easternmost spoke may be close but not equal to 50% BVAP in a Dem primary where there are plenty of white Dems comfortable to vote for a black, and where the color of the skin of the Rep, white or black, has very little to do with ideology, and where it is clear any white candidate in a Dem primary  whom even a relatively  small percentage of the black electorate finds unacceptable, is doomed, is not an analyst that you want to hire, because they are committing malpractice.  




In other news, a back bencher whose name is Steny Hoyer, and not one in the vanguard of the revolution, who happens to be a white Dem, but represents another CD packed with middle class and upper middle-class whites and blacks, who live together, where they need not, because of the values that they share in common, manages to win Dem primaries in a CD where the electorate must be at least 50% BVAP. Heal thy self. In other news, outside the most extreme racialized driven voting patterns, the VRA is on life support.  It creates more problems then it solves. I am confident that SCOTUS agrees with me. I suspect they are almost eager to signal in circumstances like this that they agree with me. Remember Sandra Day O’Connor? If not, look her up in this context perhaps if the spirit moves you.