MI-PPP: Biden +4

[Mail-order President]

PPP has a clear D bias, so this is pretty good for Trump.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

PPP/Progress Michigan (D)
August 28-29, 2020
897 voters

Not sure 3%

Edit: changes with July 28-29 poll:

Jorgensen 3% and Hawkins 1% (-2% from "third party" with 6%)
Not sure 3% (-3%)

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

A two-point swing to the Republicans immediately after the Republican convention is really not something that concerns me. Will likely be back to Biden +6 or +7 in a week. Tiny movements like this more than a month out from the election mean basically nothing.

If things don't rebound in a week or two, sure, that will be cause for *some* concern. But I'm probably 80% confident this will revert to the prior mean. And even if it doesn't, Biden leading Michigan by 4 is still consistent with a solid Biden win nationally, it would just be by a +6 or +7 margin, rather than the +8 to +10 we had been seeing.

I think I'm done commenting on polls for like a week because this is really just tiresome having to point out glaringly obvious things.

[Woody]

Biden cannot possibly overcome Trump's massive 10,704 victory over Clinton.

It simply CANNOT be done.

kErRy cAnNoT oVeRcOmE bUsH's mAsSiVe 537 vIcToRy oVeR gOr LOL!!!

Bush: SLAUGTHERS KERRY BY OVER 350,000+ VOTES IN FLORIDA

[WD]

Biden cannot possibly overcome Trump's massive 10,704 victory over Clinton.

It simply CANNOT be done.

kErRy cAnNoT oVeRcOmE bUsH's mAsSiVe 537 vIcToRy oVeR gOr LOL!!!

Bush: SLAUGTHERS KERRY BY OVER 350,000+ VOTES IN FLORIDA

Bush went from narrowly losing the popular vote in 2000, to winning it by 2 in 2004. So it makes sense that he would improve in swing states. Trump won’t do anything of the sort.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

All the blue avatars in here jumping for joy at Trump being down in a state he lost in 2016 lol. Meanwhile, they are completely radio silent in the Morning Conult and Leger threads. Bunch of hypocrites.

[Mail-order President]

For reference, this pollster had Clinton +5 right before the election

[Rand]

Biden cannot possibly overcome Trump's massive 10,704 victory over Clinton.

It simply CANNOT be done.

kErRy cAnNoT oVeRcOmE bUsH's mAsSiVe 537 vIcToRy oVeR gOr LOL!!!

Bush: SLAUGTHERS KERRY BY OVER 350,000+ VOTES IN FLORIDA

gOrE*

And I supported Bush in 2004.

[DrScholl]

Biden cannot possibly overcome Trump's massive 10,704 victory over Clinton.

It simply CANNOT be done.

kErRy cAnNoT oVeRcOmE bUsH's mAsSiVe 537 vIcToRy oVeR gOr LOL!!!

Bush: SLAUGTHERS KERRY BY OVER 350,000+ VOTES IN FLORIDA

Bush had 9/11 and the war on terrorism to run on. Security moms were a big part of his wins and many of those same women are now voting Democratic.

[VAR]

This is weird.

Democratic Party favorability: 38/50 (was 42/46)

What happened?

[Mail-order President]

This is weird.

Democratic Party favorability: 38/50 (was 42/46)

What happened?

Maybe running on burning cities down and looting for months doesn't work?

[BigSerg]

Contrary to the convention wisdom on this forum, PPP polls are generally not Dem internals, and do not have a strong D bias.

They have a B rating on 538, with the fifth most polls of any firm in their database, and a house effect of D+0.3.

"ProgressMich (D)"

[Buzz]

This is weird.

Democratic Party favorability: 38/50 (was 42/46)

What happened?

You might want to turn on the TV and see cities across the country on fire and rubble.

[DrScholl]

This is weird.

Democratic Party favorability: 38/50 (was 42/46)

What happened?

Maybe running on burning cities down and looting for months doesn't work?

This is absolutely hyperbole and you know it. Knock it off.

Contrary to the convention wisdom on this forum, PPP polls are generally not Dem internals, and do not have a strong D bias.

They have a B rating on 538, with the fifth most polls of any firm in their database, and a house effect of D+0.3.

"ProgressMich (D)"

They commissioned the poll, but that doesn't mean it's biased because they aren't the actual pollster. Your President poisons his opposition, but you want to judge this country? Give me a break.

[roxas11]

I know some will freak out at the Big headline numbers but honestly this is not a Bad poll Biden
if anything there are Huge red flags and warning signs for trump in this poll

the biggest is the rising approval numbers for both Biden and Whitmer.
Biden approval and disapproval is now nearly equal


trump approval numbers have not improved at all after the RNC convention
and this poll actually shows an uptick in his disprovel rating

that suggest that trump many not be helped by these riots the way that some on here may have thought he would

all in all if these numbers hold trump is not winning Michigan again

[Mail-order President]

I know some will freak out at the Big headline numbers but honestly this is not a Bad poll Biden
if anything there are Huge red flags and warning signs for trump in this poll

the biggest is the rising approval numbers for both Biden and Whitmer.
Biden approval and disapproval is now nearly equal


trump approval numbers have not improved at all after the RNC convention
and this poll actually shows an uptick in his disprovel rating

that suggest that trump many not be helped by these riots the way that some on here may have thought he would

all in all if these numbers hold trump is not winning Michigan

Hillary was winning MI by 5 right before election day according to this pollster.  I wouldn't be celebrating if I were a red avatar

[Rand]

This is weird.

Democratic Party favorability: 38/50 (was 42/46)

What happened?

You might want to turn on the TV and see cities across the country on fire and rubble.

Another promise kept, Donald. Your country's doing great

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I know some will freak out at the Big headline numbers but honestly this is not a Bad poll Biden
if anything there are Huge red flags and warning signs for trump in this poll

the biggest is the rising approval numbers for both Biden and Whitmer.
Biden approval and disapproval is now nearly equal


trump approval numbers have not improved at all after the RNC convention
and this poll actually shows an uptick in his disprovel rating

that suggest that trump many not be helped by these riots the way that some on here may have thought he would

all in all if these numbers hold trump is not winning Michigan

Hillary was winning MI by 5 right before election day according to this pollster.  I wouldn't be celebrating if I were a red avatar

polls going into 2016 didn't adjust for educational attainment. This isn't a pure apples-to-apples comparison.

[WD]

I know some will freak out at the Big headline numbers but honestly this is not a Bad poll Biden
if anything there are Huge red flags and warning signs for trump in this poll

the biggest is the rising approval numbers for both Biden and Whitmer.
Biden approval and disapproval is now nearly equal


trump approval numbers have not improved at all after the RNC convention
and this poll actually shows an uptick in his disprovel rating

that suggest that trump many not be helped by these riots the way that some on here may have thought he would

all in all if these numbers hold trump is not winning Michigan

Hillary was winning MI by 5 right before election day according to this pollster.  I wouldn't be celebrating if I were a red avatar

Polling averages are more useful than individual polls,  Clinton was up by 3 in the averages in MI on election day, the undecideds broke heavily for Trump. Not to mention that the polling averages got her vote share completely right. Today, in 538’s MI average Biden is up by more than 6 and is polling at 49.5% of the vote. Trump isn’t winning Michigan.

[CellarDoor]

I know some will freak out at the Big headline numbers but honestly this is not a Bad poll Biden
if anything there are Huge red flags and warning signs for trump in this poll

the biggest is the rising approval numbers for both Biden and Whitmer.
Biden approval and disapproval is now nearly equal


trump approval numbers have not improved at all after the RNC convention
and this poll actually shows an uptick in his disprovel rating

that suggest that trump many not be helped by these riots the way that some on here may have thought he would

all in all if these numbers hold trump is not winning Michigan

Hillary was winning MI by 5 right before election day according to this pollster.  I wouldn't be celebrating if I were a red avatar

Was/Is PPP weighting by education then/now?

[Mail-order President]

I know some will freak out at the Big headline numbers but honestly this is not a Bad poll Biden
if anything there are Huge red flags and warning signs for trump in this poll

the biggest is the rising approval numbers for both Biden and Whitmer.
Biden approval and disapproval is now nearly equal


trump approval numbers have not improved at all after the RNC convention
and this poll actually shows an uptick in his disprovel rating

that suggest that trump many not be helped by these riots the way that some on here may have thought he would

all in all if these numbers hold trump is not winning Michigan

Hillary was winning MI by 5 right before election day according to this pollster.  I wouldn't be celebrating if I were a red avatar

Polling averages are more useful than individual polls,  Clinton was up by 3 in the averages in MI on election day, the undecideds broke heavily for Trump. Not to mention that the polling averages got her vote share completely right. Today, in 538’s MI average Biden is up by more than 6 and is polling at 49.5% of the vote. Trump isn’t winning Michigan.

Wrong.  Biden is up 2.6 and doing much worse than hillary was right now

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I see the resident R hacks are ignoring the approval rating as usual. Trump really doesn't have any room to grow with that number, he's at his ceiling.

[WD]

I know some will freak out at the Big headline numbers but honestly this is not a Bad poll Biden
if anything there are Huge red flags and warning signs for trump in this poll

the biggest is the rising approval numbers for both Biden and Whitmer.
Biden approval and disapproval is now nearly equal


trump approval numbers have not improved at all after the RNC convention
and this poll actually shows an uptick in his disprovel rating

that suggest that trump many not be helped by these riots the way that some on here may have thought he would

all in all if these numbers hold trump is not winning Michigan

Hillary was winning MI by 5 right before election day according to this pollster.  I wouldn't be celebrating if I were a red avatar

Polling averages are more useful than individual polls,  Clinton was up by 3 in the averages in MI on election day, the undecideds broke heavily for Trump. Not to mention that the polling averages got her vote share completely right. Today, in 538’s MI average Biden is up by more than 6 and is polling at 49.5% of the vote. Trump isn’t winning Michigan.

Wrong.  Biden is up 2.6 and doing much worse than hillary was right now

In RCP, which includes Trash polls like Trafalgar, which throw the average off. 538 weights each poll to account for bias,  it’s much more accurate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is weird.

Democratic Party favorability: 38/50 (was 42/46)

What happened?

You might want to turn on the TV and see cities across the country on fire and rubble.

https://twitter.com/joshscampbell/status/1300823490396786689

[Mail-order President]

I know some will freak out at the Big headline numbers but honestly this is not a Bad poll Biden
if anything there are Huge red flags and warning signs for trump in this poll

the biggest is the rising approval numbers for both Biden and Whitmer.
Biden approval and disapproval is now nearly equal


trump approval numbers have not improved at all after the RNC convention
and this poll actually shows an uptick in his disprovel rating

that suggest that trump many not be helped by these riots the way that some on here may have thought he would

all in all if these numbers hold trump is not winning Michigan

Hillary was winning MI by 5 right before election day according to this pollster.  I wouldn't be celebrating if I were a red avatar

Polling averages are more useful than individual polls,  Clinton was up by 3 in the averages in MI on election day, the undecideds broke heavily for Trump. Not to mention that the polling averages got her vote share completely right. Today, in 538’s MI average Biden is up by more than 6 and is polling at 49.5% of the vote. Trump isn’t winning Michigan.

Wrong.  Biden is up 2.6 and doing much worse than hillary was right now

In RCP, which includes Trash polls like Trafalgar, which throw the average off. 538 weights each poll to account for bias,  it’s much more accurate.

Muh RCP doesn't add my trash D internals to the average. 538 with arbitrary skewing is OK tho.

BTW Trafalgar has a better track record than ppp