2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2 (user search)
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  2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2  (Read 83467 times)
Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,825


« on: October 23, 2020, 10:06:13 PM »



The age wave is back, it's been hiding since 2008.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,825


« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2020, 08:58:42 PM »



NYC in the House!!!

100k + on Day One from the City alone...



Maybe it's because of Harris County, TX but I'm not really impressed with NY's numbers given its population.

NY has been mail voting as well, but they are not telling us anything as fall as how many have already mailed ballots. Considering the GOP is using early-in-person more and the dems are utilizing mail ballots, there are likely a bunch of ballots in bureaucratic purgatory right now, invisible until next week.

NY and NJ are such undemocratic machine states. It is a shame it took until the pandemic that they were willing to start absentee and early voting. Georgia of all places, has had for a long time absentee, early voting and online voter registration.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,825


« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2020, 02:37:05 AM »

Arizona is the low-key most important state IMO.  Biden definitely looks strong there, but still too early to come out with any definitive statements.  I would give him probably a 75% chance of taking it.  It also looks like it might turn red on PredictIt here soon, so if you want to make some money, hammer it as soon as it does.


Are the people on PredictIt crazy lol
I can see why they would think trump will win FL but the Numbers coming out of AZ dont seem good for Trump or the the GOP at all....
PredictIt is full of Trump cultists (just read the comments, ugh), which is hardly a bad thing, it means we can take their money. A lot of people there also seem to unironically believe that "Democrats hate to nominate white males" talking point which made for good earnings during the primary, and amongst certain races in 2018. It's amazing people not only believe that but are willing to bet money based on it.

YouTube and Predictit are full of MAGA cultists. The dislike to like ratio is always very negative on any Biden or Democratic video. The YouTube comment section is just as bad as Predictit.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,825


« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2020, 11:49:17 PM »

When you take all this into account, you can see the optimistic case for Trump.  There's much lower turnout so far this year among 18-29 and 30-39 voters, and much higher turnout among 65+.  New voters skew more male.

That said, the main good signal for Trump is weaker youth turnout, and one of Biden's biggest advantages over Clinton is decimating the age gap.  Seniors actually favor Biden this year.  And that may be reflected in the polls of people who have already voted.

1) You're comparing partial EV data for one election to total vote for another
2) Young voters in GA disproportionately vote on Election Day
3) There has never been a prominent statewide election in GA where EV was younger than ED
4) >500k seniors automatically received mail ballots this year because they voted in the primary - something that was never done before

Old people love to vote ASAP by mail. Young people almost always wait until election day, or wait until the last minute to return their mail ballot or vote early in person.
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