Will millennials become more conservative with age, and if so, by how much? (user search)
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  Will millennials become more conservative with age, and if so, by how much? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Will millennials become more conservative with age, and if so, by how much?  (Read 3702 times)
Virginiá
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« on: August 10, 2016, 09:15:42 PM »

Opinions can change of certain issues, depending on each person's life experiences, but overall the "people get more conservative as they age" idea is a myth. It's possible that Democrats lose a little ground among Millennials as they age simply because they have such huge amounts of support from them, but voters don't just morph into Republicans / conservatives with age. Some people seem to have this idea that just because older voters right now lean Republican to varying degrees, that that is somehow the natural progression of things, but many of those voters always leaned Republican. Reagan did as well among young voters as Obama in 2012, and many people who came of age during that time period still lean Republican, just like people who grew up during Clinton/Bush2 (and so far, Obama, for the most part) lean overwhelmingly Democratic.

I have always found this to be a fascinating read:
http://www.people-press.org/2011/11/03/the-generation-gap-and-the-2012-election-3/

Particularly pages 1 & 2, if you have the time.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2016, 03:05:57 PM »

Todays liberals are tomorrows conservatives, so yes.

No. Not unless how we define 'conservative' completely changes.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2016, 04:32:27 PM »

I still expect the almost perfect linear pattern of age correlating positively with Republican voting to continue.

What do you mean? That as people get older, they will vote Republican? Where are these new voters going to come from though? If that's what you mean, then you're basically saying Millennials/younger genx'ers are going to start voting Republican. The major reason why the GOP base is older right now is because they've failed to win over much of the last 1.5 generations of voters, leaving them with an aging base that, lucky for them, votes more consistently than a younger Democratic base.
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Virginiá
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Posts: 18,893
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Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

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« Reply #3 on: September 03, 2016, 03:09:01 PM »

Yes, as people get older, they become more conservative.


Nope. Debunked myth.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/07/09/the-politics-of-american-generations-how-age-affects-attitudes-and-voting-behavior/
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Virginiá
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« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2016, 12:02:18 PM »

Fiscally, yes. There are already many signs that Millennials on the "from each according to his ability" side of things already tend to oppose redistribution. This group will grow in number and influence as Millennials get older and wealthier.

Socially, I'm not really sure.

But one has to ask, even if they are somewhat fiscally moderate/conservative, how does that apply to policies? Just because you are fiscally conservative doesn't necessarily mean you are against, say, single-payer healthcare, or expanding social security, and so on. Millennials have shown greater openness to such proposals and generally favor government in many aspects more than other generations. Millennials are also open to taxes on the wealthy, and that is hardly surprising given the age we have grown up in, where inequality and the wealthy gaming the system has become a defining issue of our generation.

However, personally, I still believe that aging and financial status doesn't guarantee a shift towards conservatism at any level. Studies don't support the aging aspect at least. Millennials are not really all that fiscally liberal right now, sure, but just because they aren't does not mean they will trend even more towards fiscal conservatism down the road.
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Virginiá
Virginia
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Posts: 18,893
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Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

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« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2016, 12:36:45 PM »

Millennials who make good money tend to oppose redistributive policy. This means single-payer healthcare, etc. This has been shown more than once. This doesn't mean they'll be Republicans, as you can see in Colorado that there are a significant group of Dems who oppose single-payer, but I don't think you're going to see huge numbers of high-earning Millennials willingly vote their money away, at least not with the polling data that's out there right now.

Do you have any resources/polls for this I can look at, on Millennial position issues by age and wealth? I'm not saying you are wrong, but I'm curious and I'd like to add the data to my collection.
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