🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[Oryxslayer]

Just when you thought Dutch politics couldn't get anymore ridiculous. Amazing stuff.

Do you think BBB can be considered a CDA splinter?

That's what they were until the CDA decided to cut off their arm. Now that the government gave them a wedge issue, an they have won seats off it, we will be able to see if they will adapt into a national force or collapse from poor structural foundations (FvD).

[Oryxslayer]

The biggest problem is: there is no alternative. There is no one within the poltical landscape who looks like he or she can really challenge Rutte for the crown. Not Van der Plas nor Wilders or Kuiken or anybody else.
So Rutte wins by default. Not because of he is strong (the VVD is not polling great either) because of the others are weaker.

It will be interesting in this regard if precedent is predictive once more. There have been a few elections in recent memory where the voters left of VVD, those who care about influencing government rather than casting a protest or testimonial vote, find themselves congregating on the party polling the best late in the campaign. In this case that would be PvdA-Greens.

In the past though this just means Rutte has a stable coalition partner.  The BBBs present position though means there is a window for an alternative coalition,  if it is willing to accept the risk of a more wobbly base of support. That I personally suspect is just the future of Dutch politics as long as they maintain electoral rules that encourage indefinite electoral fragmentation. 

[Oryxslayer]

If Omtzigt does form a list and get a lot of MPs elected, what are the chances that they continue to form a coherent group for the whole term?

In this case there will inevitably be conflict and splitoffs. This seems almost unavoidable, taking into account that a) there will be so many new MPs, some of which are probably looking for a job and are not necessarily loyal, b) controversial decisions will have to be made when they are going to have a lot of power, whether in opposition or in coalition, c) Omtzigt still has a relatively vague program and can still be pretty much everything you want him to be, and d) there is very little time left to vet candidates properly. In the best case scenario for Omtzigt, this will be limited to some isolated cases; in the worst case, the entire project breaks up and takes down Omtzigt too.

The same risks also exist for BBB.

Okay so after all this is said: is there any chance Omtzigt makes an offer to/tries to direct a non-CDA/BBB party with deeper roots than 0 elections?

Cause I can think of plenty of other situations in other countries where widely popular figures and their small clique are enthusiastically welcomed to the ticket of a party they may not be 100% aligned with, simply out of mutual benefits. Even if everyone parts ways after getting their seats, its usually into the two groups - who'll still probably work in government together - rather than a mass fracturing of independents to the opposition benches.

[Oryxslayer]

If PvdA/GL did lead a government, who would they end up in coalition with? Presumably either D66 or SP (but perhaps not both) would be easy to win over, but who else would they bring in? Would they be able to work with BBB?

Them forming government would probably require a wide coalition of the winners that stretches across ideological lines...which really should be the expectation in almost any scenario given the fragmentation. Though I think the alliance would prefer teaming up with Omtzigt than the other potential large parties,  at least right now.

[Oryxslayer]

Since the above is broken,  here's the announcement video

https://twitter.com/PieterOmtzigt/status/1693352512747634907?t=5qOnTgkgUwKo9hDrb...

[Oryxslayer]

Interestingly, Omtzigt says he does not want to become Prime Minister. Would be an interesting situation if his party were to become the largest and in the governmental coalition.

That makes two of the top 5 parties leaders not wanting to be PM, one specifically running solely to be PM, and one who probably couldn't get a majority coalition if he was the PM candidate and not just a coalition partner.

[Oryxslayer]

Timmermans was approved to lead the PvdA-GL list earlier today by a overwhelmingly positive party member vote.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1707083923757437375?t=z_OGvHe81eTk81Ma_K...

What we put the odds of a big party "grand coalition" between Omtzigt, GL/PvdA, and VVD? Cause unless something dramatic happens that is guaranteed mathematically viable. It would be the type of deal totally in keeping with the history of Dutch coalitions just going for the simplest option that doesn't bother with the lesser (and no testimonial) parties.

[Oryxslayer]

the netherlands need a 5% thershold

No, what the Netherlands needs is to break the stigma around government formation.  We already are seeing some of it with talk of minority governments, but it should probably go even further.  The stigma on many-party governments needs to go as well. Cause it doesn't matter if you change the rules,  the culture will remain, and fragmentation will continue. The big parties vote shares will continue to decrease, and you have to be willing to invite some testimonials to the table. If that means more snap elections, then that's the trade off.

Long formation guaranteed. Options then:
- Grand coalition in the center with GL/PvdA, VVD, NSC and BBB or D66, guaranteed to ruin them all except for the VVD who remain eternally stable at 20-30 seats
- The minority government option (VVD-NSC-BBB) with Wilders, SGP and the small right (excluding FVD which no one will touch) pacified
- New election in June 2024, potentially together with EP election

Which gets to another reason why I think the Dutch need to begin inviting the smaller parties into government and putting them under microscopes: the Senate. You talked about how government formation will be long without mentioning how the large number of small parties and a peaked BBB basically means that there is no easy majority in that chamber without either group. Especially with NSC having 0 seats there. If any government wants a majority in the current senate, they either need BBB, need to build a wide coalition far larger than the majority threshold in the parliament,  or they work on a case by case basis.  

Which is a strong recipe for either new ideas or new elections.

Oh yeah, a prediction, because why not.

GL-PvdA 32
PVV 30
VVD 25
NSC 17
D66 9
SP 6
BBB 5
PvdD 4
DENK 4
FVD 4
CDA 4
ChristenUnie 3
SGP 3
Volt 2
BVNL 1
JA21 1
BIJ1 0
50Plus 0

I haven't been too involved in the discussion here, and have been busiest elsewhere,  but David has made the developments easy to follow over the past months.  So overall I feel fairly confident that GL-PvdA is going to come in first,  and it may not be that close. PVV peaked too early, and the fact it is them peaking is going to activate the tactical Left voting. Which is going to make things difficult in government formation, cause the smaller left parties are going to therefore have a horrible result and want to stay out of government,  despite them being one path to a senate majority.  Omtzigt and Timmermans have seemed in my mind to be naturally paired for government for a while even if they have reservations that need to be settled - Timmermans needs the PM slot and Omtzigt doesn't want it. But beyond that the options are going to be limited.

[Oryxslayer]

Does anyone have any livestreams for the election results coverage that aren't geoblocked?

A live results map site would be amazing too.

Many thanks to everyone for all the updates, especially David.

Thanks,

DC

I have used https://nos.nl/ for the past two Dutch Elections (I recall checking live updates on my phone between shifts while working as a temp swim instructor in 2017). They should also have a livestream on their youtube page when the time comes. Here's their description of the counting process.

Let me see if their map is up yet.

[Oryxslayer]

Exit Poll from Nos/IPSOS:



Big lead by PVV

[Oryxslayer]

Well, Wilders will probably get the First attempt at government.  The remarkable thing is though,  his large lead seems to come from VVD so his math hasn't gotten any easier. Assuming the exit is perfectly accurate (lol) the "All-Right" government is at 69. Even throwing on SP to the pile of PVV+VVD+BBB+minor far rightist doesn't get him there. The easiest way to government is him hoping Omtzigt is willing to break his red line over PVV in Government.

Meanwhile,  the alternative tripartite of big parties will still need someone else to be bullied into forming government.

[Oryxslayer]

Party: I&O - Ipsos - Peil

PVV: 28 - 27 - 29
GL-PvdA: 27 - 24 - 28
VVD: 27 - 29 - 26
NSC: 21 - 19 - 19
D66: 9 - 11 - 8
BBB: 5 - 6 - 6
SP: 6 - 5 - 5
PvdD: 5 - 5 - 4
CDA: 4 - 4 - 6
FVD: 4 - 3 - 4
DENK: 3 - 4 - 4
CU: 3 - 4 - 3
Volt: 3 - 4 - 3
SGP: 3 - 3 - 2
JA21: 1 - 1 - 1
BIJ1: 0 - 1 - 1
BVNL:  1 - 0  - 1
50Plus: 0 - 0 - 0

All very close to each other, except for Ipsos on GL/PvdA; they have D66 higher.

Compared to the final polls it is clear that the right tactically voted for PVV while the left did not do the same for GL-PvdA. The balance between the right and left "blocs" did not shift much.

Or alternatively that the "tacitcal voting for the left" maybe had already taken place as much as it could up to this point? I don't really know

Well, the left parties did get squeezed compared to the final polls. There is left tactical voting here. The issue perhaps is the block of 'Left-Liberal" types who would float tactically were those who saw themselves are more left leaning withint the Omtzigt tent, and his Hardline on the PVV kept them there.

[Oryxslayer]

Is CDA likely going into opposition?

More like guarantied. That has been their path for a while.

[Oryxslayer]

SGP fails to come in first in Zwartewaterland, something that has always happened since the demise of the CDA as a large party of power. The same is true in Hardinxveld-Giessendam. Tiny towns in the bible Belt, but the BBB to PVV pipe seems strong here.

[Oryxslayer]

The PVV vote in Beek, Limburg almost doubled. (16.3% to 31.7%)

Limburg has always been their base so its going to be where they pull in nonvoters. It also seems to be where the VVD->PVV voter is strong. Even pre-election predictions had them winning every town there. Which is why I'm going to be more focused on the north here, but the shifts are no less significant.

[Oryxslayer]

Why does it take them so long to count votes in the Netherlands? In Germany the votes would almost all be counted within an or two of the polls closing

Gigantic ballot papers

For reference

[Oryxslayer]

NSC wins it's first municipality, Winterswijk. In the traditional CDA heartland, but voted for PvdA back then. It seems the swingly left voters in this type of region went with Omtzigt.

PVV are still surging in Ouder-Amstel, but to a lesser extent. Instead, the story is the surge for GL-PvdA, not all from other Left parties given the NSC as well.

VVD are also seemingly collapsing in their Brabant strongholds. Not just the PVV surge but also the rise of Omtzigt and the BBB are pulling them under the PV.

[Oryxslayer]

So I have to assume that the cordon sanitaire will have to be broken here, it’s either that or a broad anti-PVV government which I expect wouldn’t last very long

Well it wasn't that much of a cordon compared to some other countries, the VVD+ CDA had built a coalition with the support of the PVV in 2010. And the VVD campaign made it clear they were open to the PVV again (as a partner to them of course, never intended to be the other way around).

The real issue for the PVV mathematically, is division not opposition. They are too far from most of the left to work with them, some of the minor right parties won't enter or support government ever, and Omtzigt is squatting in the middle of the political arena. He seemingly has principles, its why votes like him, and one of those is opposition to the PVV. But his principles also compel him to avoid a repeat contest, and every foundation for government goes through him. Either Gl-PvdA + VVD + someone else, or VVD + PVV.  

[Oryxslayer]

Groningen, Netherlands' 6th largest city has just reported its results:

30.4% GL-PvdA (+11.6)
13.2% PVV (+7.5)
11.6% NSC (new)
10.6% VVD (-3.1)
  9.0% D66 (-14.0)
  4.3% SP (-3.3)
  4.1% PVdD (-1.9)
  3.8% Volt (-1.7)
  2.6% CU (-1.4)
  2.3% BBB (+1.9)

Snap!

Similar story in Wageningen (university town outside Arnhem). Only here the GL-PvdA surge eclipsed even the D66 collapse, even with the NSC also taking from their pool. There was something similar in the Amsterdam quick count: the GL-PvdA vote, and especially their gains, is looking even more urban and urban-adjacent than the D66, despite the latter having a far worse vote in many other non-urban areas.

[Oryxslayer]

Rotterdam. PVV failing to coming in first here when leading nationwide would have been a surprises. The large Muslim population has led to a large base for them as well. However, here it defiantly seems they got past nonvoters to turn out.

The main surprise I think is DENK gaining votes despite the GL-PvdA, despite the change in the electorate, and despite a decrease of support nationwide.

[Oryxslayer]

There was something similar in the Amsterdam quick count: the GL-PvdA vote, and especially their gains, is looking even more urban and urban-adjacent than the D66, despite the latter having a far worse vote in many other non-urban areas.

Yes, because D66 is an option for the 'too liberal for VVD, too rich to vote GL/PvdA' type of voter that lives in suburbs but GL/PvdA is not.

You misunderstand. I'm trying to express surprise at GL-PvdA seemingly appearing to be doing better among the urban/suburban areas and making most of their gains there, rather than places with a established PvdA base. This is despite what we know of, and you neatly conveyed, about the D66. And with NSC seemingly slipping into that position.

[Oryxslayer]

Amsterdam



The Hauge

[Oryxslayer]

Any more clarity as to which party will come second/third/fourth?

The VVD are going to have to do much better at retaining their vote in Holland than elsewhere for them to surpass GL-PvdA on their own IMO, if they do it will be because the left underperformed even a bit more then in estimates, or bad turnout. NSC has 4th locked in.

[Oryxslayer]

Seems to me now that the exit poll projection of 50+ getting a seat is getting less and less likely to occur in reality....

aaaaand the exit poll got adjusted with their seat going to PVV