PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[Progressive Pessimist]

Would Rep. Ryan Bizzarro, a blue-collar middle class Democrat be a good gubernatorial choice in '22?

https://www.instagram.com/ryanbizzarro/

Only in the Bizzarro world where Shapiro doesn't run.

[Progressive Pessimist]

IFNORED THAT WASJT WHAT I was thinking about, I was talking about split voting, again a user takes my words out of context, IGONORED, IGNORED

We got a new one, folks!

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/houseofbuddy/status/1447628687986286595

Good.  This along with MI and WI are probably the most important governorships for Dems to win in 2022.  All of these states are just a Republican governor away from AZ/GA/TX style election laws from being passed.

Absolutely. It's becoming cliche to say but 2022 is going to be the most consequential election this century...until 2024 becomes that. Really, any election which features a Republican Party that wants to transform our country into a place only they would want to live in essentially makes every election the most important ever.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Mastriano continues to shoot himself in the foot with these controversial statements about Israel now. I don't think he even cracks 45% at the moment.

Hopefully he sinks even lower. The man is evil and a bigot.

He is basically a microcosm of the GOP this year, and why I am dreading the midterms like a convict on death row dreads their execution if it ends up being as good of a year for them as it could be.

There used to be a time where I would just simply be disappointed if the GOP won but still be able to not be mortified by it. Now though it's just so existentially harrowing when they, especially when resembling Mastriano, win elections anywhere.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yeah guys we should all have 100% faith in polls rn totally

Nobody should have faith in polls totally.  There is some inaccuracy inherent in any sampling operation.  But polls (if well-designed and conducted by reputable organizations) are a useful tool. 

I always wonder why people who think polls are worthless hang out on the polling forums.

Are they worthless, or rather have we seen enough times they under-estimate conservative turnout in Pennsyltucky/the pastorals of the Lower Susquehanna to where know a poll in PA showing ~48-40 or ~50-41 for the D is really dead-even?

Other than 2016 what are the examples?

In 2020 per the polling database here the average was Biden+5. Actual result was Biden+1. So that's a D error but just 4 points, not 8-9.

2018 had Wolf+15... actual result was Wolf+17, actually underestimated. And for Senate it had Casey+13. Actual result....Casey+13.

While I am having my reservations about polling, I think the real question of this election when it's all settled as it relates to polling is whether 2016 and 2020 were Trump being on the ballot effects that skewed poll expectations or not. 2018 was obviously more accurate (though still not perfect *cough8 Florida *cough*) and that probably spoiled us for 2020.

If polls are relatively inaccurate this year, then the phenomenon is likely polls not being able to reflect turnout. If they are more or less accurate than the Trump effect theory may remain.

Though I would add, based on the most recent elections we've had, that polls in the Virginia race in 2021 were accurate-Mcauliffe probably would have won if the election took place any other time than those last two or three weeks when Youngkin's momentum was very clearly reflected in most polls by that point. New Jersey too at least got Murphy's percentage result right, the polls just did not account for undecideds heavily moving to Ciatarelli. So we're in a pretty murky situation here.

I'm not sure what it will be, but I refuse to be disappointed and as such am managing my expectations for the worst, whether that is actually in our future or not.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Looks like Shapiro was at the Puerto Rican parade and did other events while Doug Mastriano was on a call with Andrew Torba

TORBA! TORBA! TORBA!

An appropriate thing to yell as Mastriano's campaign is coming close to resembling a kamikaze pilot.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This Election in PA is OVER

Dont get overconfident. I do not consider any election as written in stone anymore.

Thankfully I don't think Shapiro is going to take this election lightly at all, even if he knows he is ahead. As long as he continues to run a serious campaign and not complacent he should be able to deliver a win. And that goes for a lot of elections across the country this year against Mastriano types, even if they aren't quite as much of a human dumpster fire as he is.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/SarahLongwell25/status/1557813900132884485

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1557861166097080323

Maybe it's me being condescending, but I always tend to think that political focus groups organized by the media always consist of the most uninformed people possible. So if this is indeed reflective of the race at-large, that's a pretty good sign for the general election in both major statewide races.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Considering how inundated I was with Ciatarelli ads last year, I'd be more than happy to take a barrage of Democratic ads ad nauseum to make up for that.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Mastriano really makes no effort whatsoever to display any moderate image or broad appeal.  He really just tacks hard right and can't move away from them even for a moment.   Everything needs to be the most conservative stance, the most right wing position, the most pro-Trump statements.   To him there's absolutely no need to balance or appeal to more people or anything.

It's like he never left Republican Primary campaign mode, or a different mode doesn't even exist for him.

He's still running a better campaign than Dr. Oz is.

Mastriano at least seems to excite the Trump base. It's just that he appeals to literally nobody else. Oz, meanwhile, appeals to almost literally nobody.

[Progressive Pessimist]

He's creeped me out since I first saw him. I swear that every time I look at him he looks like he came out of the Third Reich. I suppose it's just a vibe, but he really does make me uncomfortable in a way few do.

Well, given that he's Italian, he is more of an Italian PNF member.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Trump were still President, Shapiro would be on track to winning by a bigger margin than Wolf did in 2018.

Indeed. Fetterman would also be on track to win by a bigger margin than Casey in 2018, and Shamaine Daniels would have a chance to be elected a congresswoman.

2020 was a poisoned chalice for the GOP. Hell, the Dems gaining a trifecta might have been the ideal outcome for them. A Trump six year itch midterm, especially if Dobbs still happened in June 2022, would make 2006 look like 1998.

It definitely seemed like it was going to be for awhile, and perhaps still could be, but they're doing their damnedest to waste it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/gill_mcgoldrick/status/1567143772223406083

I like that! It's a great way to tie abortion to economics.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/JoePostingg/status/1568955106468528130?t=KxdLfc7_TXjHESO8IH-...

Am I watching a Youtube compilation or a political ad?

I've seen worse, dumber, and more insulting ads but never have I seen one as pointless as this. Maybe it's a smart move though: the less voters know about what Mastriano actually thinks, the less likely it is that they reject him unless they're pure Trump cultists. instead it's just Mastriano interacting with voters in safe R counties! Who can have a problem with that? Even if the music blares over him speaking and a lion roars at the end for no reason.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Considering how much being from New Jersey has plagued Oz's campaign, this might be the death-knell for Mastriano's on top of everything else objectionable about him. Sure, it probably won't shift the opinions of the Trump cultists, but it adds to the many things that might be a major turn-off for Independents and undecideds.

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1570760664318099461

PAGOP candidates and being registered to vote in New Jersey--name a better duo.

New Jersey should keep their clowns.

God, no! We don't want him! Give him to Florida.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/TomLehmanWGAL/status/1571981420956127232

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1571987107945627652

I guess I'll give him credit for not trying to backpedal from his stringent views. But has this guy ever seen a conspiracy theory he doesn't immediately gravitate towards?

[Progressive Pessimist]

To think this guy was one of the major GOP candidates I feared winning the most this year!

Now that's kind of transferred to Kari Lake...

[Progressive Pessimist]

I will also stop short of saying safe D, but even accounting for Mastriano getting all the GOP base support to turn out for him as possible and GOP favoring polling errors, Shapiro still seems ahead by too much and with too many factors that make him favored to win. No Republican should be losing the Fraternal Order of Police endorsement. I am more convinced that it could even be a relative blowout in the low teens at this point too. Mastriano seems to have basically given up unlike Oz and Trump in 2020.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So with the extreme divergence in both major statewide Pennsylvania races, with this one looking increasingly like a lock for Shapiro and Oz making a comeback in the Senate race, what can Shapiro do to help Fetterman? He might as well focus his efforts there as well as in trying to get a Democratic legislature now that Mastriano is close to dead in the water. I get not wanting to be complacent but this is getting into "stop! He's already dead!" territory and the resources that may go into beating him further into the ground could be utilized better elsewhere.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Is it time Shapiro refocuses his campagin towards securing a dem stage legislature ?

That's my thinking. I said this on the previous page. And not only that but he should do what he can to prop up Fetterman too. I hope they campaign together soon.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Apparently the PA Chief Justice passed away last night.  RIP.

He was a Dem (generally considered the most moderate of the 5) and he would have reached the mandatory retirement age in December of this year had he lived.  Does anyone know how the replacement process works and whether that changes now that he sadly left a couple months earlier than planned?

The remaining 4 Dems are slated to be on the court through at least 2025, so the majority that would hear any 2022/24 election related disputes is not at stake with this appointment/election.

Governor appoints, subject to State Senate confirmation, so I imagine it stays open or (less likely) Wolf nominates a non-crazy Republican who will pass muster with the Senate, but I doubt he will want to give any Republican incumbency with the seat up for election next year anyway.

Wolf won't get a chance to fill it, the State Senate only has like a week left in session before January. The next Governor will fill the vacancy.

All the more reason to vote for Shapiro.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Entirely random but I don’t think it was brought up

Mastriano confederate flag supporting is ridiculous, but even more so that he is literally the state senator for GETTYSBURG

As someone who lives in south-central PA, I can assure you, there have always been a lot more Confederate flags around here than you would expect. More around like 2015 when the anti-Obama hate was at its most extreme, but you still see a fair number of them.

South Central PA also tended to have a lot of a Copperhead sentiment back in the Civil War and afterwards and its population was more Southern oriented.

Where such would be really depressing, would be in the Northern Part of the state.

It's like when I visit north-central Jersey and see confederate flags. 

You're in freaking Monmouth County, my dude. 

I’ve never actually seen a Confederate flag in Monmouth, but NJ was probably the most pro-Southern or pro-Copperhead region of the entire North. It didn’t even have a real Republican Party until the 1870s. The ironic part is that the most Republican sections within the state are the most likely to express Southern culture today.

But the general story there is pretty straightforward: in the 1970s, figures like Jimmy Carter, the Allman Brothers, the Dukes of Hazzard, and Lynyrd Skynyrd made culturally “Southern” symbols more broadly representative of rural whites, and they still are today.

That is an excellent point, but it's hardly limited to rural whites. There is a putz in my town-suburban upper middle class Bergen County, mind you-who has a Confederate flag hanging from his front porch. He also has a Humvee in his driveway, so that should tell you a lot. These kinds of people exist elsewhere for whatever reason too.

[Progressive Pessimist]

In my opinion, Shapiro's floor is a victory margin of 4 points, and his ceiling is anywhere between 9 and 12.

Given polarization, I'm thinking Shapiro by about 4 seems most likely. It's unfortunate but remember Biden only won PA by a point against Trump in 2020, who isn't Mastriano levels of crazy but getting close.

Trump had an actual campaign infrastructure though. Also Shapiro outran Biden by four points. A high single digit margin is definitely plausible. I'm cautious about it ending up in the low teens, but this is not entirely equivalent to a presidential election.

The Senate election will likely track closer to 2020.

[Progressive Pessimist]

In my opinion, Shapiro's floor is a victory margin of 4 points, and his ceiling is anywhere between 9 and 12.

Given polarization, I'm thinking Shapiro by about 4 seems most likely. It's unfortunate but remember Biden only won PA by a point against Trump in 2020, who isn't Mastriano levels of crazy but getting close.

Trump had an actual campaign infrastructure though. Also Shapiro outran Biden by four points. A high single digit margin is definitely plausible. I'm cautious about it ending up in the low teens, but this is not entirely equivalent to a presidential election.

The Senate election will likely track closer to 2020.

I do wonder if Mastriano is helping Oz in a backhanded sense that Mastriano being so crazy makes Oz look more normal and sane. I also feel like there's a bit of a simillar dynamic in Georgia; prior to 2020 Kemp was seem as pretty far right for Georgia but after he refused to give in to the big lie he's been hailed as some moderate hero and often compared to Walker, who is well... idk.

Possibly, but then again Mastriano's extremism is also almost certainly a motivator for Democrats to turn out which doesn't help Oz much either. I know that there are evidently Oz/Shapiro voters, but there don't seem to be that many to automatically yield that split result.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Shapiro is absolutely a future Presidential candidate. People in the handshake line after the rally yesterday were telling him "Don't stop at Governor." He clearly has studied Obama and I would expect him to run in 2028.

Oh absolutely. I definitely see a potential future president in him too. He'd likely be the strongest candidate the Democrats could put up for 2028.

And for the first time in well over a decade, it looks like the Democrats will have a strong bench again.

Shapiro might be the white Obama, and we could really use one of those.

And then we also have Wes Moore, Jared Polis, and Gretchen Whitmer. Eh, Newsom too, I guess, but I think he would have the most problems.