2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original  (Read 207757 times)
Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #800 on: March 24, 2018, 04:51:46 PM »
oof, generic ballot below 6, not that it matters this early out, but still curious what caused it
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #801 on: March 24, 2018, 05:51:45 PM »
I just read through this entire thread trying to find individual district polls.

It's amazing how predictable the responses of some people in here are.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #802 on: March 24, 2018, 05:52:57 PM »
Quote from: darthpi on March 24, 2018, 05:51:45 PM
I just read through this entire thread trying to find individual district polls.

It's amazing how predictable the responses of some people in here are.

And even after that, you're still here?  I admire your persistence!
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #803 on: March 24, 2018, 05:54:45 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on March 24, 2018, 05:52:57 PM
Quote from: darthpi on March 24, 2018, 05:51:45 PM
I just read through this entire thread trying to find individual district polls.

It's amazing how predictable the responses of some people in here are.

And even after that, you're still here?  I admire your persistence!

Believe it or not, I just came back.
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
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« Reply #804 on: March 24, 2018, 05:55:07 PM »
Quote from: Representative-Elect politicalmasta73 on March 24, 2018, 04:51:46 PM
oof, generic ballot below 6, not that it matters this early out, but still curious what caused it

Blue wave imminent
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Greedo punched first
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« Reply #805 on: March 24, 2018, 05:56:45 PM »
Quote from: darthpi on March 24, 2018, 05:51:45 PM
I just read through this entire thread trying to find individual district polls.

It's amazing how predictable the responses of some people in here are.
I put up UC Berkeley polls for CA-07, CA-25, and CA-48. I also put up a Change Research poll for CA-39 (R 44%%, D 43%). Still no new polls for CA-25, CA-45, CA-10, and CA-21.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #806 on: March 24, 2018, 11:45:43 PM »
Quote from: Representative-Elect politicalmasta73 on March 24, 2018, 04:51:46 PM
oof, generic ballot below 6, not that it matters this early out, but still curious what caused it

Nothing caused it. It's going to fluctuate.
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Pericles
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« Reply #807 on: March 25, 2018, 02:29:26 AM »
The model.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #808 on: March 25, 2018, 08:23:12 AM »
Fox News Poll 3/25 (Last poll was October 2017)


Democrats - 46 (-4)
Republicans - 41 (+6)

Went from D+15 to D+5.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/03/25/fox-news-poll-gap-narrows-on-2018-vote-preference.html
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #809 on: March 25, 2018, 08:26:33 AM »

So far this cycle's GCB curve has tracked the model very well, but I encourage everyone not to fall in love with the model and assume that they can't diverge at some point. 
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #810 on: March 25, 2018, 08:37:08 AM »
Heads up, a new Fox News poll has the generic ballot at +5 for democrats.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #811 on: March 25, 2018, 09:00:56 AM »
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on March 25, 2018, 08:37:08 AM
Heads up, a new Fox News poll has the generic ballot at +5 for democrats.

Here: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2018/03/25/fox-news-poll-results-325.html

March 18-21, 1014 RV (change from January)

D 46 (+2)
R 41 (+3)
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #812 on: March 25, 2018, 09:08:49 AM »
« Edited: March 25, 2018, 09:16:08 AM by Hindsight is 2020 »
Oh god is this that time of the year again  when Trump approval goes slightly up and CGB tightens a bit and Atlas has a freaks out
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #813 on: March 25, 2018, 09:09:38 AM »
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on March 25, 2018, 09:08:49 AM
Oh god is this that time when Trump approval goes slightly up and CGB tightens a but and Atlas has a freaks out

Yep, just like every other time. Smiley
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #814 on: March 25, 2018, 09:17:22 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on March 25, 2018, 09:09:38 AM
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on March 25, 2018, 09:08:49 AM
Oh god is this that time when Trump approval goes slightly up and CGB tightens a but and Atlas has a freaks out

Yep, just like every other time. Smiley

Only 7ish months to go...

I need another hobby. Sad
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Holy Unifying Centrist
DTC
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« Reply #815 on: March 25, 2018, 10:14:42 AM »
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on March 25, 2018, 09:08:49 AM
Oh god is this that time of the year again  when Trump approval goes slightly up and CGB tightens a bit and Atlas has a freaks out

Most of these shifts can just be attributed to the sample the poll uses. This sample seems to have polled about the same as many republicans as it did democrats (aka, not what the voters in November will be).
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KingSweden
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« Reply #816 on: March 25, 2018, 10:24:51 AM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on March 25, 2018, 08:23:12 AM
Fox News Poll 3/25 (Last poll was October 2017)


Democrats - 46 (-4)
Republicans - 41 (+6)

Went from D+15 to D+5.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/03/25/fox-news-poll-gap-narrows-on-2018-vote-preference.html

There was a poll in January
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Holy Unifying Centrist
DTC
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« Reply #817 on: March 25, 2018, 10:37:58 AM »
I'm honestly not convinced that the electorate has changed at all since May of last year. People don't change their opinions every 10 seconds unless something major happens. Special elections results have been extremely consistent (12% swing before January --> 13% swing after January) despite the GCB going up and down and all around.

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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #818 on: March 25, 2018, 10:45:05 AM »
Quote from: Devout Centrist on February 20, 2018, 03:24:26 PM
Y'know, no one is going to learn their damn lesson. We're gonna repeat the doomsaying of the past few weeks within two months or so.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #819 on: March 25, 2018, 10:48:38 AM »
Quote from: KingSweden on March 25, 2018, 10:24:51 AM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on March 25, 2018, 08:23:12 AM
Fox News Poll 3/25 (Last poll was October 2017)


Democrats - 46 (-4)
Republicans - 41 (+6)

Went from D+15 to D+5.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/03/25/fox-news-poll-gap-narrows-on-2018-vote-preference.html

There was a poll in January

There was but Fox News has forgotten to mention it, I wonder why? /s
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #820 on: March 25, 2018, 10:51:41 AM »
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on March 25, 2018, 09:17:22 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on March 25, 2018, 09:09:38 AM
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on March 25, 2018, 09:08:49 AM
Oh god is this that time when Trump approval goes slightly up and CGB tightens a but and Atlas has a freaks out

Yep, just like every other time. Smiley

Only 7ish months to go...

I need another hobby. Sad

Take up body building it’s a good distraction and destresser. Just make sure you don’t look at the tv with the news on it. Lol. Nothing takes away from a torrid pace like getting caught up in political thoight
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #821 on: March 25, 2018, 11:14:12 AM »
Quote from: DTC on March 25, 2018, 10:37:58 AM
I'm honestly not convinced that the electorate has changed at all since May of last year. People don't change their opinions every 10 seconds unless something major happens. Special elections results have been extremely consistent (12% swing before January --> 13% swing after January) despite the GCB going up and down and all around.



Seriously, this. Following every tiny shift this far out will drive you nuts. I've been there.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #822 on: March 25, 2018, 12:01:10 PM »
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on March 25, 2018, 10:48:38 AM
Quote from: KingSweden on March 25, 2018, 10:24:51 AM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on March 25, 2018, 08:23:12 AM
Fox News Poll 3/25 (Last poll was October 2017)


Democrats - 46 (-4)
Republicans - 41 (+6)

Went from D+15 to D+5.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/03/25/fox-news-poll-gap-narrows-on-2018-vote-preference.html

There was a poll in January

There was but Fox News has forgotten to mention it, I wonder why? /s

Not only did they leave out the January poll in the trend information, the two they list prior to October (April and June) were 47/42 and 47/41.  January was 44/38 and this month is 46/41.  The 50/35 result in October looks like a clear outlier.
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
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« Reply #823 on: March 25, 2018, 12:25:37 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on March 25, 2018, 08:23:12 AM
Fox News Poll 3/25 (Last poll was October 2017)


Democrats - 46 (-4)
Republicans - 41 (+6)

Went from D+15 to D+5.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/03/25/fox-news-poll-gap-narrows-on-2018-vote-preference.html

From the article:

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Look, everyone knows that the GOP is done in November....we're all basically playing the waiting game at this point
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King Lear
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« Reply #824 on: March 25, 2018, 12:33:45 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on March 25, 2018, 08:23:12 AM
Fox News Poll 3/25 (Last poll was October 2017)


Democrats - 46 (-4)
Republicans - 41 (+6)

Went from D+15 to D+5.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/03/25/fox-news-poll-gap-narrows-on-2018-vote-preference.html
Devastating news for the Democrats, if this trend continues, they will be wiped out this November.
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