The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

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Not great approval, but the Republicans are doing badly in Iowa.

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Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    25
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 104
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 86
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   16




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    35
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 117
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  43
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 29
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  55
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 81
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 0
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  

[pbrower2a]

The map above apparently show the President at a nadir for support.  He wins unless he gets a challenge from the Left (which would be happening now if it is to be relevant in 2012) or a Republican opponent who has few flaws. Sure, many right-wingers would love to see this President as the "new Jimmy Carter".

At an approval rating in the area of 40% the President still leads the strongest Republican candidate by 5% in Wisconsin (where the Right has just waged a strong defense of some State Senate seats) and 10% in Iowa.  To be sure, Al Gore lost in 2000 despite winning both states which are slightly D and of course in 2004 John Kerry split them -- but in both years, both states were really close. An even shift of 2.5% of the popular vote nationwide in 2000 toward Gore gives him Florida and New Hampshire; a similar shift in 2004 shifts Iowa, Ohio, and New Mexico to Kerry. Either scenario wins in 2000, 2004, or 2012.

President Obama isn't campaigning -- yet. The Republicans are making such a case as they can early -- which they must if they are to win the nomination. 

 

[pbrower2a]

Here is how I see Gore 2000 with a 2.5% gain if applied to 2012:

 (Ignore shades)


...and how I see Kerry 2004 with a 2.5% gain:

Basically, one trades Florida for Ohio.

[pbrower2a]

Here is how I see Gore 2000 with a 2.5% gain if applied to 2012:

Kentucky, WTF ?

Such happens when I type in the dark. Typo!

[pbrower2a]

Florida, Mason-Dixon.

Among the findings of the August Sachs/Mason-Dixon Florida Poll:

***51 percent of Floridians would vote for Governor Romney compared to 43 percent for President Obama;

***In a hypothetical matchup with Texas Governor Rick Perry, Perry leads with 46 percent to Obama's 45 percent;

***President Obama leads Congresswoman Michele Bachmann 46 percent to 44 percent; and

***41 percent of Floridians approve of President Obama's job performance while 56 percent disapprove. Fifty five percent of independents disapprove.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    25
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 104
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 57
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   16




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    35
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 117
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  43
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 29
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  26
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 110
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 0
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  

[pbrower2a]

With Irene coming, we shouldn't rely on national polling after tomorrow, at least until mid week of next week.  There is the potential for a lot of disruption.

It's 15 months before the bleeping election in the middle of summer.

Other than us hard core junkies, nobody cares, much less has though about, any of this.

The polls are meaningless for about another 10 months or so...

Irene is a hurricane bearing down on the heavily-populated eastern US. It will disrupt communications and force people away from their telephones. The least of anyone's problems will be polling. Anny polling from any east-coast state during the impending disaster will  also be meaningless. PPP has scheduled polling for Kentucky (OK) and South Carolina. I promise to treat any weekend poll of South Carolina suspect. Such also applies should Quinnipiac poll anything on the East Coast. 

Question: how will the elected officials do their jobs? Dubya's handling of Hurricane Katrina was itself a disaster, and such had political consequences.

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, +2.

Disapprove 54%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -2.

Bad sample dropping?  Hurricane?

It could be Libya. Nasty dictator goes down, and the US has avoided bad consequences.

Note that with the possible exception of South Carolina (whose involvement in this hurricane is likely to have been slight), every state in the path of Hurricane Irene voted for President Obama in 2008.

I am not going to trust any national polling for about a week for the simple reason that far too much of the American public stands to face damage and disruption from this hurricane. Likewise I hope that PPP, Quinnipiac, and others choose to poll such states as Michigan, Missouri, and Ohio next week.

Hurricane seasons have been comparatively modest since 2005... and we need remember that the mishandling of natural disasters created its own electoral disaster for the President of the time. Never underestimate the potential for stupidity and crass grandstanding. Both major political parties can get hurt here.

That is before I even start to think of the potential for deaths, crippling injuries, and economic damage.

[pbrower2a]

Just for formatting:

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46, +1.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -2.

Looks good for a change, but any national polls over the next three days or so are obviously suspect -- whatever they are. State polls outside of the storm zone will be interesting.

[pbrower2a]

Just for formatting:

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46, +1.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -2.

Looks good for a change, but any national polls over the next three days or so are obviously suspect -- whatever they are. State polls outside of the storm zone will be interesting.

I made that point before the storm hit. 

I'd really wait until Thursday at the earliest before I'd start viewing the polls with normal skepticism.

Exactly. Maybe I wasn't clear enough in saying that that is the last national poll that I am going to consider valid until the power lines are up. The geographic scale of damage is far wider, and the storm affects far more people, than is usual for a hurricane. The states and DC affected comprise 140 electoral votes.

[pbrower2a]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/62190.html

He's lost ground according to the AP-GfK data, with white voters, women, liberals and younger voters, in surveys taken just after the debt-ceiling debate.



Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/62190.html#ixzz1WQI40X1D

I am not surprised that that is the explanation. The response to Hurricane Irene will soon matter far more.

[pbrower2a]

Can you say decline!

Sure.  But I can also say 'transitory' and 'reversible' in that context.

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43, +1.

Disapprove 56%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -1.

No Irene effect.

Just that no conclusions can be drawn, PPP will have Kentucky (safely out of the range of Irene), and South Carolina (slight if any effect from Irene). This weekend PPP will be doing West Virginia and North Carolina. I think that PPP would be unwise to poll North Carolina this weekend -- and not that I would prefer that it polled Florida or Missouri.

The President does not grandstand on natural disasters, but I figure that people still remember the tragedy and travesty of Katrina.

[pbrower2a]

Prime example of the sort of poll that I consider suspect:

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Reason:

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http://www.statejournal.com/story.cfm?func=viewstory&storyid=106674

A state Chamber of Commerce is about as likely to show no bias as a labor union is likely to show no bias.

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Because evisceration of labor unions is one of the cornerstones of any pro-business group and West Virginia has a long heritage of strong union activity, I would consider that suspect.

PPP will poll the state this weekend, and I wouldn't be surprised if President Obama polls only in the 30s in the Mountaineer State, as he is a poor match for the culture of Appalachia. I am showing it because it shows what "suspect" looks like.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    25
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 104
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 57
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   16




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    35
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 117
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  43
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 29
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  26
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 110
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 0
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  

[pbrower2a]

Pennsylvania, Franklin&Marshall.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/images/video/2011_pdfs/0901gpPolls.pdf

It's an EGFP poll, and not an approval poll, so I won't show the EGFP results. Check the link if you are curious.

I can't copy the data directly, but in essence, the President out-polls all major Pennsylvania pols (including the Republican Governor and the split Senatorial delegation) President Obama fares better than any shown Republican challenger except Perry, who is not shown. I have no cause to believe  that Rick Perry would fare better than Romney or Bachmann in Pennsylvania.


Now, for one that nobody can argue with:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/09/obama-lags-perry-by-8-romney-by-15-in-south-carolina.html#more

South Carolina is close to the national level for approval ratings... but the President would lose the state.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    25
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 104
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 48
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 41
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   16




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    35
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 117
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  63
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 9
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  26
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 101
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  

[pbrower2a]

Kentucky:

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But even with this poor result for approval of the President, Barack Obama still is behind Romney by 8%, Perry by 7%, and Bachmann by 3%. I'm not going to even mention Sarah Palin or Newt Gingrich, whose atrocious performances in a state that Dubya won by roughly 15% twice now suggests a travesty if included. President Obama will likely gain more than 6% from his approval rating, but even at that he would still lose the state by ione of the largest margins in America. The rules of my model suggest that Kentucky is out of reach for the President.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    25
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 104
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 48
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 41
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   26




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    35
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 117
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  63
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 9
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  26
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 101
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  26  

[pbrower2a]

New Jersey (Kean University Center for History, Politics and Policy)

53% Approve
44% Disapprove

(Gov. Christie)

54% Approve
44% Disapprove

The New Jersey Speaks poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters in New Jersey on August 30. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3 points.

The Kean University Center for History, Politics and Policy was founded in July by Dr. Dawood Farahi, president of Kean University. “The center will provide a wealth of expertise and analysis from Kean University's faculty,” Dr. Farahi said. “Whether the conversation concerns climate change, human rights, New Jersey politics, or computer literacy, Kean University faculty have the knowledge and wisdom to enrich our civic conversation. The Center for History, Politics and Policy will bring that knowledge and wisdom into the global community.”

http://www.kean.edu/pressreleases/2011/09/02_PresidentArrivesNJ.asp

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    25
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 104
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 48
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 41
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   26




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    49
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 117
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  49
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 9
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  26
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 101
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  26  

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, -1.

Disapprove 55%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +2.

No movement toward Obama. 

I think we can rule out a "debt ceiling slump" or an "Irene boost."

It looks like a slump in Obama's numbers since mid-July, with it expanding in early August.  He is not in free fall.

It is like he took a step down on the stairs in July, and then another one in August.  He has not tripped and fallen down the stairs, however.

President Obama has been in the 45% territory before.  He isn't campaigning (although we will get a taste of that on the most politicized day of the year for Democrats tomorrow). The debt ceiling debate was a disaster for all involved We might find out soon enough whether the public responses to Hurricane Irene put egg on the faces of some politicians.

We have been fortunate to have some comparatively mild hurricane seasons in 2009 and 2010. We know what Hurricane Katrina did in 2005 to the GOP. Short of wars (we seem to be losing opportunities for military glory), major legislation (like it or not, President Obama got that in 2009 and 2010), and big diplomatic successes (the Arab Spring so far looks good) the test of a President as an administrator is the natural disaster. Any effects of the response to Hurricane Irene will appear next week. Sure, we have usually taken the response to a natural disaster for granted as a political matter -- but not since Hurricane Katrina.

PPP is polling North Carolina this weekend. 

[pbrower2a]

California:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-0905-poll-presidential-20110905,0,6048766.story

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 54
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    80
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 104
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 48
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 41
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   26




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 54
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    104
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 117
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  49
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 9
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  26
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 101
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  26  

[pbrower2a]

This is my "The economy has improved, unemployment drops to 8%, the R nominee is Perry/-not Rubio/-Romney, and we're not in a realignment" map:

Recent polls in Texas show that Rick Perry is doing badly among Hispanics (largely Mexican-Americans)  in Texas -- so why should he do better with Mexican-Americans in Colorado or Nevada (or for that matter, Arizona) or with other Hispanics in Florida?

Iowa and New Hampshire are not going to vote for a reactionary who wears Protestant fundamentalism on his sleeve. Virginia may be happy with a Republican Governor who acts as a moderate... but that is not to say that a Hard Right candidate has much of a chance there. The Democrats are going to take Pennsylvania off the table with a strong GOTV campaign that gets out every D-leaning voter in greater Philly and Pittsburgh.

Ohio is Obama territory if he is able to please the auto industry and the UAW... and Indiana goes into question at that point. North Carolina has consistently shown itself a swing state since 2008. Even NE-02 depends upon how the Nebraska state legislature reconfigures the district.

[pbrower2a]

Gallup:

44% Approve (+2)
50% Disapprove (nc)

Middle of the road Americans witnessed the celebration of violence and ignorance that was the Republican debate last night and are sprinting back to Obama.

How good were the TV ratings?
 
 The polling was from before the GOP debate. More likely it is the effect of the Debt Ceiling fiasco going onto the back burner.

The President gets to offer his proposals for jobs tonight... and that will get more viewers and likely have more influence upon the opinions of the electorate than will the GOP debate last night. 

[pbrower2a]

Gallup:

44% Approve (+2)
50% Disapprove (nc)

Back to the area at which he has a good chance of winning.

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina Survey Results

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Poor approval rating, but President Obama apparently beats everyone but Perry (whom he ties) this time.  Note that this comes before the "Ponzi scheme" description of Social Security. This model does not allow me to anticipate the consequences of a sudden incidence of "foot-in-the-mouth disease".

I am showing the results of a poll for Alabama (it is a favorability and not an approval poll that shows favorability in the high 30s.. I doubt that anyone will call me on my estimate that favorability in such an incidence is close enough to approval in this zone.  President Obama loses to every Republican shown, and I doubt that anyone would have a problem with a guess that the Obama vote in Alabama  will be effectively the percentage of the  African-American vote. Bachmann isn't included.  President Obama would lose the state by roughly 20% to either Perry or Romney, which suggests an approval rating at or below 40%.  Alabama will go to the President only in a 45-state landslide.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 63
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    80
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 89
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 63
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 41
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   26




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 54
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    104
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 102
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  49
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 24
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  41
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 101
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  35  

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46, +1.

Disapprove 53%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +4.

There probably is a bad sample in there because of the jump up in the strongly disapproved number.  It will probably drop out tomorrow.

The strongly numbers are 23-40, not 23-44.

That is a big gain from the recent nadir.  No conclusions, though.

[pbrower2a]

Missouri, PPP:

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The sample voted more R than the state as a whole did in 2008, so it is good news for the President. 

Virginia, not so great...

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x5822.xml?ReleaseID=1644

I am not showing it, but any indication that President Obama would lose the youth vote in 2012 doesn't show here.

It is two different pollsters, but Romney wins Virginia but Perry loses it, and Perry wins North Carolina but Romney loses it.  The Republican nominee needs to win both Virginia and North Carolina to have a real chance of winning the Presidency.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 63
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    80
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 76
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 63
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 54
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   26




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 54
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    104
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 89
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  49
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but one to whom he loses 37
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  41
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 101
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  35  

[pbrower2a]

You know, there comes a time when a graphic conveys too much information to be legible. You have reached that point.

Here's one alternative of my creation, and you will see that it shows little less (useful and current) information with much less garishness. It doesn't show approvals, though, but I can;t be sure that approval means the same thing to every pollster.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=140886.0

Oh -- www.electoralvote.com has just been restarted, and its operator is far more adept than I am at showing what I have been showing. I don't expect to compete with that site, which is my inspiration, here once its operator gets active.