Prediction: MS Gov. Primary Tues.

[smoltchanov]

Close to what i think too. Though i would prefer Waller on Republican side.

[smoltchanov]

Hoping for Foster

That would be a sensation. But - too unlikely..

[smoltchanov]

The real kick in the balls is Michael Watson winning the R Secretary of State primary and being the presumptive winner in November. He's a lunatic in the mold of Kris Kobach and plans to use his office to catch all the illegal immigrants he claims are registering to vote in Mississippi.

Well, it's Mississippi.. Watson is well-known as state Senator and one of the chief McDaniel supporters in his nearly successfull race against Cochran in 2014.

[smoltchanov]

Tate Reeves is a sweaty ginger and gives off Fat Pat vibes.

Jim Hood to pull a Joe Manchin?

How did Hood manage to become Attorney General? And even more important: How did manage to get re-elected so many times?
It's remarkable that the Mississippians think that that department is made for Democrats only; only one single Republican has occupied that post in the history of that state.

In 2003 Mississippi Democratic statewide official wasn't such rarity as now.

Couple of interesting results for state Legislature: the most liberal (by far) white state Senator Deborah Dawkins (SD-48) lost her Democratic primary. If her seat goes Republican in November (and it can) together with SD-05 and SD-37 (both - likely) and SD-08 (possible) - only 2 white Democratic state Senators will remain in Legislature. On the other hand - one of the leaders of conservative attempt to wrestle Speakership from more moderate Democrats in 2007-2008, then a very conservative Democrat (later - Republican) Jeffrey Smith was defeated as well (in Republican primary).

[smoltchanov]

It seems Waller played a role of "moderate suburban Republican" in this race...

P.S. Run-off is very likely on Republican side for Governor. Reeves will win it, probably (most of the Foster vote will go to him, and he needs very little), but, given his enormous money advantage, the very fact of his inability to win outright will be a hit...

[smoltchanov]

I would say Lean R. Lot of Republicans seem to be not especially fond of Reeves...

[smoltchanov]

Now I know that Rankin County has a tradition in voting for Republican candidates who are less conservative in the primaries, but it really says a lot that Reeves couldn't even win this county as it is his home county. For the GOP Runoff, I'll predict 59% Reeves and 41% Waller.

My guess was 60-40, so we are very close. Republicans will, most likely, increase their margin in state Senate (their targets - 5, 8, 37, 48, Democratic - 22, and, may be, 9 and 10), but Democrats may gain a little in House (Republican targets being 122, 12, and, may be, 22 and 75, Democratic - 40, 102, 90, 64, 10, may be - 115 and 13) ..

[smoltchanov]

Runoff predictions (for now):

Reeves:  57%
Waller:  43%

A very underwhelming performance for Reeves, Waller will win more counties in the runoff than he did in the first round.

Fitch: 65%
Taggart:  35%

Fitch is going to bloody Andy in the AG runoff because she can attack him on his lukewarmness toward Trump. 

Sincerely - can't explain logically how such disgusting person as Trump became an idol (no less) of Republican party...[/offtopic]