Weld would be a great candidate for NY governor

[Erc]

Smash-   I have relatives in Nassau County, and I was there during the 2001 election campaign. I remember it was a huge deal because their was a financial crisis caused by Gulotta (probably not just him but thats how I remember it). They hadn't had a Democrat Executive in living memory.

The county is entirely made up of suburbs and was extremely Republican right up until 1992. My aunt said back before World War II you had to be a registered Republican to get a county job. (This wasn't an official law of course)

Even though Nassau is now voting for Dems at local and national levels, I think there is still a chance for the GOP to do well, as seen in November when Bush nearly won neighboring Suffolk county and made big gains in Nassau compared to 2000. Whether Pataki's unpopularity carries over to the GOP nominee remains to be seen.

The basic reason both Nassau & Suffolk were closer than 2000 was 9/11.   Schumer (granted the race wasn't competitive to begin with) won Nassau  & Suffolk counties by landlsides (around 40 points).  Pataki is very unpopular here right now & I think it will carry over o the GOP nominee much like it carried over to Bruce Bent went  he went up against Suozzi back in 2001, when Suozzi won an open seat vacated by a Republican by a 2-1 margin.  Spitzer is going to win both Nassau & Suffolk Counties by a very large margin (not as big as Schumer's victory here but by at least 20-25 or more).  2004 Presidential election you really can't judge because of the 9/11 impact for Bush, but Long Island in general has turned from heavily Republican to pretty solid Democratic.  4 of the 5 members of Congress on Long Island are Dems & once King retires it has a decent chance of becoming 5 for 5 (if Suozzi ever takes on King it will be all 5).  Nassau & Suffolk still actually have a registered Republican advantage (although that gap is closing very fast) but its pretty much like the direct opposite of some southern states where many registered Dems vote mostly Republican, many registered Republicans in Nassau & Suffolk COunty vote Democratic & most Independents vote Democratic (2004 being less than usual in the Pres Election due to 9/11 impact), but although still being strongly GOP in State Senate seats (mostly vwery moderate Republicans) Long Island has gone from strong Rep to Strong Dem as far as Pre Elections, Congressional elections, Senate elections (Lazio did win here in 2000 (local effect), but Clinton will win very big here in 06) & Countywide elections (Suozzi may win this year by an even larger margin he won in 2001.  2004 was an abberation in the Pres election mainly due to 9/11 & somewhat due to not liking Kerry), with the hold the nose voters.  My dad is a perfect example of this voted for Bush in 88, Clinton twice & Gore in 2000.  Registered as an Independent  (fairly socially liberal) & from the early 90's has voted mostly Democratic, but went voted Bush in 2004.  Didn't really like Kerry, like how Bush handled 9/11, but doesn't like anything else about him, disagrees with him on most issues, but 9/11 & him not liking Kerry, he wound up voting for Bush while holding his nose in the process.  Most likley will vote Dem in both Senate & Gov in 06  (only will vote GOP on one if Rudy runs).  The only Republican that could probably win a race on Long Island right now (outside of King's conressional seat) is Rudy, other than that senate,  congress, county legis, (Gov ewill be) will be Democarttic & Pres now that their will be no more 9/11 impact in 9/11 will be back to double digit victories in Suffolk & Nassau possibly 20+ in Nassau or more if a conservative Republican runs (like a Frist or Santorum) against someone like a Bayh, Feingold

Well, Schumer did win nationally by 47 points...so the Republicans did better there than a lot of other places...

Personally, I'm skeptical of the "9/11 effect"--but, of course, I'm from Westchester, which swung towards the Democrats.

But they're still definitely Democratic-leaning...and Spitzer will be our next Governor.