Weld would be a great candidate for NY governor

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

.....for the Democrats

Spitzer 60%
Weld 16%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11373.xml?ReleaseID=679

Hey, maybe they should bring in Keyes. Although he might actually not break out of single digits in NY.

[AuH2O]

Who cares. Let NY have a dirty Governor, I don't care.  em

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Weld
A) hasn't announced a candidacy
B) isn't known in the state.

but yeah, he would have an uphill battle against Spitzer.

[YRABNNRM]

Who cares. Let NY have a dirty Governor, I don't care. f**ck em

Thanks man...

[WalterMitty]

if weld ran, hed be a very serious candidate.

[Smash255]

if weld ran, hed be a very serious candidate.

Serious in what way??  He would get demolished

[Cubby]

I think Weld would be a great candidate, and I'm saying this as a citizen not a Democrat. I wouldn't want him to win but he's a moderate Republican and they are OK. The problem is that he would be mostly unknown to voters and wouldn't have a base of support.

[Alcon]

The good news for Weld is that this is a good increase on his last showing of 6%. At this rate, he will have 466% of the vote by the election.

God bless early polling.

[Smash255]

I think Weld would be a great candidate, and I'm saying this as a citizen not a Democrat. I wouldn't want him to win but he's a moderate Republican and they are OK. The problem is that he would be mostly unknown to voters and wouldn't have a base of support.

One problem he may face is having the stigma of having an RR next to his name.  A very unpopular Republican govenor that came before him & with that R beside his name might screw him regardless ( & thats not even taking into consideration how strong of a candidate & how popular Spitzer is).  This happened in Nassau County a few years ago.  The Republican County Exec basically screwed things up badly & was very unpopular (Tom Gullotta).   He steppe down & the Republican challenger Bruce Bent had basically no chance, not through any fault of his own, but he carried the R next to his name, just like the very unpopular county exec at the time.  Suozzi was indeed a better candidate than, Bent & in an area that was growing Democratic, but a big part of the reason Suozzi won in the 2-1 landslide he did, was because the county wanted to do a way with any kind of Republican leadership since it was a Republican (although a different Republican) that screwed things up so bad

[Cubby]

Smash-   I have relatives in Nassau County, and I was there during the 2001 election campaign. I remember it was a huge deal because their was a financial crisis caused by Gulotta (probably not just him but thats how I remember it). They hadn't had a Democrat Executive in living memory.

The county is entirely made up of suburbs and was extremely Republican right up until 1992. My aunt said back before World War II you had to be a registered Republican to get a county job. (This wasn't an official law of course)

Even though Nassau is now voting for Dems at local and national levels, I think there is still a chance for the GOP to do well, as seen in November when Bush nearly won neighboring Suffolk county and made big gains in Nassau compared to 2000. Whether Pataki's unpopularity carries over to the GOP nominee remains to be seen.

[Smash255]

Smash-   I have relatives in Nassau County, and I was there during the 2001 election campaign. I remember it was a huge deal because their was a financial crisis caused by Gulotta (probably not just him but thats how I remember it). They hadn't had a Democrat Executive in living memory.

The county is entirely made up of suburbs and was extremely Republican right up until 1992. My aunt said back before World War II you had to be a registered Republican to get a county job. (This wasn't an official law of course)

Even though Nassau is now voting for Dems at local and national levels, I think there is still a chance for the GOP to do well, as seen in November when Bush nearly won neighboring Suffolk county and made big gains in Nassau compared to 2000. Whether Pataki's unpopularity carries over to the GOP nominee remains to be seen.

The basic reason both Nassau & Suffolk were closer than 2000 was 9/11.   Schumer (granted the race wasn't competitive to begin with) won Nassau  & Suffolk counties by landlsides (around 40 points).  Pataki is very unpopular here right now & I think it will carry over o the GOP nominee much like it carried over to Bruce Bent went  he went up against Suozzi back in 2001, when Suozzi won an open seat vacated by a Republican by a 2-1 margin.  Spitzer is going to win both Nassau & Suffolk Counties by a very large margin (not as big as Schumer's victory here but by at least 20-25 or more).  2004 Presidential election you really can't judge because of the 9/11 impact for Bush, but Long Island in general has turned from heavily Republican to pretty solid Democratic.  4 of the 5 members of Congress on Long Island are Dems & once King retires it has a decent chance of becoming 5 for 5 (if Suozzi ever takes on King it will be all 5).  Nassau & Suffolk still actually have a registered Republican advantage (although that gap is closing very fast) but its pretty much like the direct opposite of some southern states where many registered Dems vote mostly Republican, many registered Republicans in Nassau & Suffolk COunty vote Democratic & most Independents vote Democratic (2004 being less than usual in the Pres Election due to 9/11 impact), but although still being strongly GOP in State Senate seats (mostly vwery moderate Republicans) Long Island has gone from strong Rep to Strong Dem as far as Pre Elections, Congressional elections, Senate elections (Lazio did win here in 2000 (local effect), but Clinton will win very big here in 06) & Countywide elections (Suozzi may win this year by an even larger margin he won in 2001.  2004 was an abberation in the Pres election mainly due to 9/11 & somewhat due to not liking Kerry), with the hold the nose voters.  My dad is a perfect example of this voted for Bush in 88, Clinton twice & Gore in 2000.  Registered as an Independent  (fairly socially liberal) & from the early 90's has voted mostly Democratic, but went voted Bush in 2004.  Didn't really like Kerry, like how Bush handled 9/11, but doesn't like anything else about him, disagrees with him on most issues, but 9/11 & him not liking Kerry, he wound up voting for Bush while holding his nose in the process.  Most likley will vote Dem in both Senate & Gov in 06  (only will vote GOP on one if Rudy runs).  The only Republican that could probably win a race on Long Island right now (outside of King's conressional seat) is Rudy, other than that senate,  congress, county legis, (Gov ewill be) will be Democarttic & Pres now that their will be no more 9/11 impact in 9/11 will be back to double digit victories in Suffolk & Nassau possibly 20+ in Nassau or more if a conservative Republican runs (like a Frist or Santorum) against someone like a Bayh, Feingold

[Q]

Weld has announced that he is NOT running for NY Gov.

[TomC]

Great candidates lose.

[Beet]

Another Abraham Lincoln Republican bites the dust.

[Erc]

Smash-   I have relatives in Nassau County, and I was there during the 2001 election campaign. I remember it was a huge deal because their was a financial crisis caused by Gulotta (probably not just him but thats how I remember it). They hadn't had a Democrat Executive in living memory.

The county is entirely made up of suburbs and was extremely Republican right up until 1992. My aunt said back before World War II you had to be a registered Republican to get a county job. (This wasn't an official law of course)

Even though Nassau is now voting for Dems at local and national levels, I think there is still a chance for the GOP to do well, as seen in November when Bush nearly won neighboring Suffolk county and made big gains in Nassau compared to 2000. Whether Pataki's unpopularity carries over to the GOP nominee remains to be seen.

The basic reason both Nassau & Suffolk were closer than 2000 was 9/11.   Schumer (granted the race wasn't competitive to begin with) won Nassau  & Suffolk counties by landlsides (around 40 points).  Pataki is very unpopular here right now & I think it will carry over o the GOP nominee much like it carried over to Bruce Bent went  he went up against Suozzi back in 2001, when Suozzi won an open seat vacated by a Republican by a 2-1 margin.  Spitzer is going to win both Nassau & Suffolk Counties by a very large margin (not as big as Schumer's victory here but by at least 20-25 or more).  2004 Presidential election you really can't judge because of the 9/11 impact for Bush, but Long Island in general has turned from heavily Republican to pretty solid Democratic.  4 of the 5 members of Congress on Long Island are Dems & once King retires it has a decent chance of becoming 5 for 5 (if Suozzi ever takes on King it will be all 5).  Nassau & Suffolk still actually have a registered Republican advantage (although that gap is closing very fast) but its pretty much like the direct opposite of some southern states where many registered Dems vote mostly Republican, many registered Republicans in Nassau & Suffolk COunty vote Democratic & most Independents vote Democratic (2004 being less than usual in the Pres Election due to 9/11 impact), but although still being strongly GOP in State Senate seats (mostly vwery moderate Republicans) Long Island has gone from strong Rep to Strong Dem as far as Pre Elections, Congressional elections, Senate elections (Lazio did win here in 2000 (local effect), but Clinton will win very big here in 06) & Countywide elections (Suozzi may win this year by an even larger margin he won in 2001.  2004 was an abberation in the Pres election mainly due to 9/11 & somewhat due to not liking Kerry), with the hold the nose voters.  My dad is a perfect example of this voted for Bush in 88, Clinton twice & Gore in 2000.  Registered as an Independent  (fairly socially liberal) & from the early 90's has voted mostly Democratic, but went voted Bush in 2004.  Didn't really like Kerry, like how Bush handled 9/11, but doesn't like anything else about him, disagrees with him on most issues, but 9/11 & him not liking Kerry, he wound up voting for Bush while holding his nose in the process.  Most likley will vote Dem in both Senate & Gov in 06  (only will vote GOP on one if Rudy runs).  The only Republican that could probably win a race on Long Island right now (outside of King's conressional seat) is Rudy, other than that senate,  congress, county legis, (Gov ewill be) will be Democarttic & Pres now that their will be no more 9/11 impact in 9/11 will be back to double digit victories in Suffolk & Nassau possibly 20+ in Nassau or more if a conservative Republican runs (like a Frist or Santorum) against someone like a Bayh, Feingold

Well, Schumer did win nationally by 47 points...so the Republicans did better there than a lot of other places...

Personally, I'm skeptical of the "9/11 effect"--but, of course, I'm from Westchester, which swung towards the Democrats.

But they're still definitely Democratic-leaning...and Spitzer will be our next Governor.

[A18]

The good news for Weld is that this is a good increase on his last showing of 6%. At this rate, he will have 466% of the vote by the election.

God bless early polling.

I see you've been reading Shira's "trends" lately

[WilliamSeward]

Personally, I'm skeptical of the "9/11 effect"--but, of course, I'm from Westchester, which swung towards the Democrats.

So am I. I think it has more to do with Newt Gingrich no longer being Republican leader and people forgetting about him.