Could Biden deny Trump a clean county sweep in all states?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

With that recent poll showing him up in OK-05 he must be up in Oklahoma County by a healthy margin and with current numbers he's probably slightly favored in Monongalia County, WV too.

[Woody]

With that recent poll showing him up in OK-05 he must be up in Oklahoma County by a healthy margin and with current numbers he's probably slightly favored in Monongalia County, WV too.

Source?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

With that recent poll showing him up in OK-05 he must be up in Oklahoma County by a healthy margin and with current numbers he's probably slightly favored in Monongalia County, WV too.

Source?

Hillary lost it by about 10 points and won the popular vote by 2. Biden is now winning the popular vote by about 15 points.

[Woody]

With that recent poll showing him up in OK-05 he must be up in Oklahoma County by a healthy margin and with current numbers he's probably slightly favored in Monongalia County, WV too.

Source?

Hillary lost it by about 10 points and won the popular vote by 2. Biden is now winning the popular vote by about 15 points.

Son, Biden's not going win nationally by double digits. Let alone 5+ points.

[John Dule]

I can see him winning Oklahoma County, but I don't think any WV counties are going for him. Could be wrong.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

With that recent poll showing him up in OK-05 he must be up in Oklahoma County by a healthy margin and with current numbers he's probably slightly favored in Monongalia County, WV too.

Source?

Hillary lost it by about 10 points and won the popular vote by 2. Biden is now winning the popular vote by about 15 points.

I mean, Biden probably doesn't win nationally by 15, that's generally the upper limit of his polling, but even if he wins by 8 or so I think there's a good chance he would win Monongalia anyway because the swing in the election won't be uniform across the entire country.

[W]

I'm honestly not sure given WV. It's possible to pull Jefferson if Biden does a tad better than 2012 there but I cannot help to think lasting damage has been done to even the chances of a Dem winning a county there for the foreseeable future.

[Alben Barkley]

Biden WILL win Monongalia County. You heard it here first. Decent chance at Jefferson too.

[Rand]

A modest national swing is all Joe Biden needs to win the states that Clinton lost by just 10K, 18K, and 44K votes. There will be enough of a swing to turn counties in most states, but I doubt there will be enough of a swing in West Virginia. Regardless, there will be a lot more red (blue) counties for Biden—after all, it isn’t hard for the Democrats to win back counties they lost by just a couple hundred or a couple thousand votes. It must be very difficult for Trumpers to admit how paper thin his victory was in 2016 and how his reelection hinges on his ability to expand the smallest, most delicate of margins in Democratic states.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

With that recent poll showing him up in OK-05 he must be up in Oklahoma County by a healthy margin and with current numbers he's probably slightly favored in Monongalia County, WV too.

Source?

Hillary lost it by about 10 points and won the popular vote by 2. Biden is now winning the popular vote by about 15 points.

Son, Biden's not going win nationally by double digits. Let alone 5+ points.

I actually agree, but a high single digit PV won is definitively a strong possibility.

[morgankingsley]

Yeah, west Virginia is not happening

[DrScholl]

Probably. Monongalia and Jefferson counties are most certainly a possibility for Biden to carry since they are somewhat different than the rest of West Virginia.

[G_Master]

Unless his enthusiasm is down in West Virginia (no polls as of yet, so far), I would think that the worst chance for Biden would be West Virginia. But who knows. It's kind of interesting because I would think that the last bastion for Trumpism would be West Virginia, but I wouldn't be surprised if his popularity dipped at least a little bit from 2016, thus possibly giving Biden a narrow lead in a county like Monongalia, Jefferson or Kanawha, yet still not entirely likely either.

[Calthrina950]

Biden WILL win Monongalia County. You heard it here first. Decent chance at Jefferson too.

After your predictions about the gubernatorial election in Kentucky last year, I trust your judgment. If Biden does manage to break the Republican all-county sweeps in both Oklahoma and West Virginia, he will become the first presidential candidate of either party since Bill Clinton in 1996 to win at least one county in every state.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Possibly, but I'm not holding my breath for West Virginia.

[redjohn]

I agree that Biden likely wins at least one county in WV by a hair. If there's double-digit swings nationwide, you will see Biden winning counties in every state.

[ProgressiveModerate]

He "could" I would say there's about a 50-50 chance this happens. OKC is probably favored to flip flip for Biden just the way the urban and suburban areas of the country have been trending. Mongolia in WV on the other hand is probably Biden's best chance, but even Obama didn't win any WV county in 2012, and WV has taken a harder turn right since then.

[Calthrina950]

He "could" I would say there's about a 50-50 chance this happens. OKC is probably favored to flip flip for Biden just the way the urban and suburban areas of the country have been trending. Mongolia in WV on the other hand is probably Biden's best chance, but even Obama didn't win any WV county in 2012, and WV has taken a harder turn right since then.

West Virginia probably had the most anti-Obama swing of any state in 2012 (aside from Utah). McCain won the state 56-42% in 2008, and Obama carried seven counties (including Monongalia), but in 2012, Romney won it 62-35%. You are probably right when you say that West Virginia would be difficult for Biden, because he could still lose every county even if he were able to get back to Obama's 2012 levels of support. Monongalia County, however, went for Trump by "only" 10%, and gave him a bare majority, so it's possible Biden could eke out a plurality win there.

[Nyvin]

Oklahoma County is significantly bigger than Monongalia and is also wealthier and has a higher level of education per capita.   I'd expect the leftward trend to be much stronger in Oklahoma county, even if based on the simple fact that larger urban areas trend left faster than smaller ones generally.  

My hunch is that Biden wins Oklahoma county but comes up short in Monongalia based on that simple little analysis.

[Hope For A New Era]

I think we'll discover this year that a lot of votes in West Virginia were not votes for Trump but rather votes for "not Clinton." It's becoming increasingly obvious that this was the case in a lot of places, such as the Dakotas and my own Missouri. She was just absolutely toxic for rural, traditionally-living, not-particularly-ideological voters, to an extreme that no one anticipated. Whether that's enough to flip Monongalia...we'll see. I almost think Jefferson might be more likely, looking at the speed of the shifts in suburbs.


Oklahoma is a flip. He might even have a chance at Cleveland.

[Former President tack50]

West Virginia is probably too big of a lift, and Oklahoma is no better than a tossup in my opinion.

Ironically, if he wins, even if it was to be only extremely narrowly Trump might have a better chance at winning a county in every state.

The only state where Trump failed to win a county was Massachussets, where the closest county was Plymouth County at Clinton+7. That county was won by the R senate candidate while losing the state by 3 points less than Trump (60-36 instead of 60-33).

So if Trump rebounded compared to 2016, even by just a bit in Massachussets he might have a shot at winning the county, but it is very much unlikely.

Of course with Trump being down by around 8 as of now, this is an extremely unlikely scenario. But if say, Trump won the Popular Vote, he might win a county in every state.

As for places where Biden might add clean sweeps, other than Rhode Island there aren't that many of them. VT and CT are the next 2 in line, but Litchfield and Essex are probably too Republican for Biden to win. Delaware might be doable if Biden gets a big "favourite son" effect but it is also an unlikely one.

[Calthrina950]

West Virginia is probably too big of a lift, and Oklahoma is no better than a tossup in my opinion.

Ironically, if he wins, even if it was to be only extremely narrowly Trump might have a better chance at winning a county in every state.

The only state where Trump failed to win a county was Massachussets, where the closest county was Plymouth County at Clinton+7. That county was won by the R senate candidate while losing the state by 3 points less than Trump (60-36 instead of 60-33).

So if Trump rebounded compared to 2016, even by just a bit in Massachussets he might have a shot at winning the county, but it is very much unlikely.

Of course with Trump being down by around 8 as of now, this is an extremely unlikely scenario. But if say, Trump won the Popular Vote, he might win a county in every state.

As for places where Biden might add clean sweeps, other than Rhode Island there aren't that many of them. VT and CT are the next 2 in line, but Litchfield and Essex are probably too Republican for Biden to win. Delaware might be doable if Biden gets a big "favourite son" effect but it is also an unlikely one.

This is incorrect. Clinton also won every county in Hawaii. No Republican has won a county in that state since Ronald Reagan in 1984 (which was also the last time that Hawaii voted Republican in a presidential election), and the closest county was Honolulu County, which Clinton won 61-32% over Trump. Honolulu County is the state's most populous county, and has been its most Republican one throughout it's history. So Trump's chances of winning at least one county in every state are virtually nonexistent.

[Former President tack50]

West Virginia is probably too big of a lift, and Oklahoma is no better than a tossup in my opinion.

Ironically, if he wins, even if it was to be only extremely narrowly Trump might have a better chance at winning a county in every state.

The only state where Trump failed to win a county was Massachussets, where the closest county was Plymouth County at Clinton+7. That county was won by the R senate candidate while losing the state by 3 points less than Trump (60-36 instead of 60-33).

So if Trump rebounded compared to 2016, even by just a bit in Massachussets he might have a shot at winning the county, but it is very much unlikely.

Of course with Trump being down by around 8 as of now, this is an extremely unlikely scenario. But if say, Trump won the Popular Vote, he might win a county in every state.

As for places where Biden might add clean sweeps, other than Rhode Island there aren't that many of them. VT and CT are the next 2 in line, but Litchfield and Essex are probably too Republican for Biden to win. Delaware might be doable if Biden gets a big "favourite son" effect but it is also an unlikely one.

This is incorrect. Clinton also won every county in Hawaii. No Republican has won a county in that state since Ronald Reagan in 1984 (which was also the last time that Hawaii voted Republican in a presidential election), and the closest county was Honolulu County, which Clinton won 61-32% over Trump. Honolulu County is the state's most populous county, and has been its most Republican one throughout it's history. So Trump's chances of winning at least one county in every state are virtually nonexistent.

Oh yeah forgot about Hawaii. Yeah Hawaii makes it impossible for Trump, even if he did win big.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dakotas, WY 3 states, Trump will win every county

[Holmes]

Dakotas, WY 3 states, Trump will win every county

Um, he’s at the very least not winning the Native majority counties in the Dakotas lol.