Bailout Plan is Going to Fail to Pass

[angus]

by January 1st ... we're guaranteed to be at 10%

Everybody's an expert all of the sudden.  Honestly, I only took two graduate-level courses in economics.  Easy As, too.  No kidding.  I was flabbergasted at all those BBA folks who were struggling with the courses.  This is not to pick on them, but I thought going in that I'd be at a disadvantage never having taken an undergrad course in the business department.  Seriously, after all those physics and math and chemistry courses, the economics courses were like a vacation.  Still, I liked the class, I have to admit.  It influenced me in ways I wouldn't have thought they would.  My parents were 70's mainstream democrats.  Anti-capital punishment, anti-war, pro-union, and when I voted for the first time for president, in 1988, I voted for Dukakis mostly because I didn't know any better.  I had been raised a democrat.  But those courses, even though each were an easy A, did awaken me to a realization of how the private sector works.  And yes, we did go over both Hayekian and Keynesian economics.  I guess your teachers have books that come with crystal balls.  The ones I bought for those courses didn't.  But that was in the very early 90's.  We didn't have iPods then, either.  Wish we had those crystal balls, though, like your economics profs do.

Well, anyway, everybody on this thread is suddenly an expert in economics.  Funny, none of you had any good investment advice during the multitude of threads asking for it.  None of you had any good advice.  Now, every goddamned one of you is an expert.  George Bush says jump and 70% of all Democrats and 33% of all Republicans are suddenly asking, "how high?"  I know that when I wake up in the morning, the earth will still be spinning on its axis, at a rate of one revolution per 24 hours, and whether or not the stock market crashes, I'll get up and send my child to day care, and show up in class.  And I know that if the congress once again starts to talk about burdening every man, woman, and child in America with the debt of foolish aristocrats, I'll again do whatever I can to convince my elected officials to spend that money more wisely.  We should invest in our future.  Plant trees and educate our children and eat right.  But we don't need to spend another 700 billion on one of George Bush's "we need to get this done now because it's imperative for our national security" schemes. 

Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.

okay, end of rant. 

Ah, well, at least this has been a fun thread.  You don't often get eleven pages unless it involves sex, drugs, homosexuality, or creationism.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Well, anyway, everybody on this thread is suddenly an expert in economics.  Funny, none of you had any good investment advice during the multitude of threads asking for it.  None of you had any good advice.  Now, every goddamned one of you is an expert.  George Bush says jump and 70% of all Democrats and 33% of all Republicans are suddenly asking, "how high?"  I know that when I wake up in the morning, the earth will still be spinning on its axis, at a rate of one revolution per 24 hours, and whether or not the stock market crashes, I'll get up and send my child to day care, and show up in class.  And I know that if the congress once again starts to talk about burdening every man, woman, and child in America with the debt of foolish aristocrats, I'll again do whatever I can to convince my elected officials to spend that money more wisely.  We should invest in our future.  Plant trees and educate our children and eat right.  But we don't need to spend another 700 billion on one of George Bush's "we need to get this done now because it's imperative for our national security" schemes. 

well, if the bill passes, we don't know for sure if it is going to work....but, seeing how today was a little preview of what's to come, I think we now know for sure what is going to happen if it doesn't pass.

My advice?  Buy a gun...and a lot of bullets.

And in their next interview, the MSM might do us all a favor by asking Sarah Palin how to shoot, clean, and prepare moose.  Palin may be clueless about anything outside of Alaska, but she ain't gonna starve like the rest of us.

[Lunar]

by January 1st ... we're guaranteed to be at 10%

Everybody's an expert all of the sudden.  Honestly, I only took two graduate-level courses in economics.  Easy As, too.  No kidding.  I was flabbergasted at all those BBA folks who were struggling with the courses.  This is not to pick on them, but I thought going in that I'd be at a disadvantage never having taken an undergrad course in the business department.  Seriously, after all those physics and math and chemistry courses, the economics courses were like a vacation.  Still, I liked the class, I have to admit.  It influenced me in ways I wouldn't have thought they would.  My parents were 70's mainstream democrats.  Anti-capital punishment, anti-war, pro-union, and when I voted for the first time for president, in 1988, I voted for Dukakis mostly because I didn't know any better.  I had been raised a democrat.  But those courses, even though each were an easy A, did awaken me to a realization of how the private sector works.  And yes, we did go over both Hayekian and Keynesian economics.  I guess your teachers have books that come with crystal balls.  The ones I bought for those courses didn't.  But that was in the very early 90's.  We didn't have iPods then, either.  Wish we had those crystal balls, though, like your economics profs do.

Well, anyway, everybody on this thread is suddenly an expert in economics.  Funny, none of you had any good investment advice during the multitude of threads asking for it.  None of you had any good advice.  Now, every goddamned one of you is an expert.  George Bush says jump and 70% of all Democrats and 33% of all Republicans are suddenly asking, "how high?"  I know that when I wake up in the morning, the earth will still be spinning on its axis, at a rate of one revolution per 24 hours, and whether or not the stock market crashes, I'll get up and send my child to day care, and show up in class.  And I know that if the congress once again starts to talk about burdening every man, woman, and child in America with the debt of foolish aristocrats, I'll again do whatever I can to convince my elected officials to spend that money more wisely.  We should invest in our future.  Plant trees and educate our children and eat right.  But we don't need to spend another 700 billion on one of George Bush's "we need to get this done now because it's imperative for our national security" schemes. 

Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.

okay, end of rant. 

Ah, well, at least this has been a fun thread.  You don't often get eleven pages unless it involves sex, drugs, homosexuality, or creationism.

Whoah, just quoting what I heard from this guy:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Eichengreen

[CultureKing]

wow... I kinda feel betrayed/let down. Sh*t is going to hit the fan.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Does anyone seriously doubt that congress will fail to pass any bailout bill?

Though this first bill failed, there will no doubt be a vote that will pass.  Presumably, that bill will be a more cautiously constructed affair with a smaller price tag to the American tax payer.

It's far too early to call this a disaster.  Today was painful, but an overreaction.  A bailout will be passed, and those 777 points will be factored back into stock prices.

[Torie]

Does anyone seriously doubt that congress will fail to pass any bailout bill?

Though this first bill failed, there will no doubt be a vote that will pass.  Presumably, that bill will be a more cautiously constructed affair with a smaller price tag to the American tax payer.

It's far too early to call this a disaster.  Today was painful, but an overreaction.  A bailout will be passed, and those 777 points will be factored back into stock prices.

Don't count on any bill to jump start stock prices. I doubt that will happen.

[??????????]

wow... I kinda feel betrayed/let down. Sh*t is going to hit the fan.

Just pop some popcorn, sit back and enjoy the show.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Does anyone seriously doubt that congress will fail to pass any bailout bill?

Though this first bill failed, there will no doubt be a vote that will pass.  Presumably, that bill will be a more cautiously constructed affair with a smaller price tag to the American tax payer.

It's far too early to call this a disaster.  Today was painful, but an overreaction.  A bailout will be passed, and those 777 points will be factored back into stock prices.

Each day that goes by without a bill hurts businesses. Chances they pass anything this week, if at all, are slim. This whole week will go by without any action. Hard telling how many points the DOW will lose. 777 is just the beginning. I bet we see another 300-400 come off tomorrow.

[??????????]

Now is definitely the time to start looking at good stocks to buy.

[War on Want]

My stupid ass congressman Sali voted against. No surprise here.

[J. J.]

It really depends on what the market does and overall liquidity.

The candidate that gets ahead of this wins.  Even the candidate that would explain why it is important would win (without using the word "liquidity").

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Does anyone seriously doubt that congress will fail to pass any bailout bill?

Though this first bill failed, there will no doubt be a vote that will pass.  Presumably, that bill will be a more cautiously constructed affair with a smaller price tag to the American tax payer.

It's far too early to call this a disaster.  Today was painful, but an overreaction.  A bailout will be passed, and those 777 points will be factored back into stock prices.

Don't count on any bill to jump start stock prices. I doubt that will happen.

I figure news of a new bailout compromise that has the votes to pass would be worth a 400 point bounce minimum.  The market has been incredibly unstable lately.

[??????????]

And what if this bailout fails? Do we have another bailout?

[CultureKing]

Anyone else feel like our situation is creepily like Japan in the mid 1990's? What are the chances we head down the same track (ie a severe recession larger than anything since the great depression).

[Torie]

Anyone else feel like our situation is creepily like Japan in the mid 1990's? What are the chances we head down the same track (ie a severe recession larger than anything since the great depression).

The US tanks failed institutions in a hurry. Japan didn't. That is a big difference. The key is to get assets priced right, and get rid of institutions that are under water.

[MaxQue]

That is awful than the world economy is destructed by some egoist Americans who want to keep their money and don't want to give it to the government for the improvement of the live of all.

What do you prefer, opponents to this? Save the world economy or building pork-barrel bridges to go on empty islands?

[??????????]

That is awful than the world economy is destructed by some egoist Americans who want to keep their money and don't want to give it to the government for the improvement of the live of all.

What do you prefer, opponents to this? Save the world economy or building pork-barrel bridges to go on empty islands?

Most thinking people don't believe in throwing their money into the wind.

Would you give an arsonist who burnt down his own house a new house and more matches?

[J. J.]

Since I like being Prophetic:

I think if Obama wins, he's better turn to Michelle and quote Mdme. de Pompadour:

After us, the deluge.

I'm not entirely convinced that Cindy McCain could not say the same thing.

[minionofmidas]

KY 1-5. Ron Lewis is retiring, and acts according.
TN 4-5. Partisan lines except for Lincoln Davis.
AL 6-1. Okay, this SC-GA-Al pattern absolutely defies explanation. Bob Aderholt against.
MS 1-3. Along partisan lines, except for Childers and Thompson. And Pickering. Oh, and Taylor. Which is actually still along partisan lines.
AR 4-0. Hillary made them do it?
LA 2-5. Democrats, Republicans opposed, Lobbyists (McCrery, Melancon) in favor.
OK 2-3. Boren, Cole in favor.

Thanks for posting this analysis BTW! It's a dirty job, but someone has to do it!!!

My apologies. KY is 2-4 - Hal Rogers being the other one.

[minionofmidas]

.... I'm not getting into this again. It's like dealing with a 2nd grader.

Which just aides in proving the point that there is a difference between the educations at Duke and Minnesota State.

Yep, I can understand a kindergarten kid thinking it unfair to have to debate a second grader.

[minionofmidas]

As to the "politically easy" discussion: This was a classic fucked if you do, fucked if you don't situation. For all concerned (including Paulson and Bush). There was no way to come out without some egg on their faces.

I actually don't think this vote will matter much come election time, btw - in fact voting aye might turn out to be the electorally savvy move in many cases - although both of this is entirely due to the bill failing. Had it passed narrowly, there would have been hell to pay for all the uncharacteristic/vulnerable ayes.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I see Pelosi has control over the members on her side of the isle.  

How is this Pelosi's fault when the majority of Republicans voted against it?

I see Bush has control over the members on his side of the isle.

Because the Speaker should be able to control their own Party; I'm sure that Gingrich, or O'Neill, or Rayburn would not have lost this vote.

[minionofmidas]

I see Pelosi has control over the members on her side of the isle. 

How is this Pelosi's fault when the majority of Republicans voted against it?

I see Bush has control over the members on his side of the isle.

Because the Speaker should be able to control their own Party; I'm sure that Gingrich, or O'Neill, or Rayburn would not have lost this vote.

Gingrich wouldn't have attempted anything bipartisan.

[Lief 🗽]

The NYT makes fun graphics.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/09/29/business/20080929-CONGRESS-VOTE-GRAPHIC.html

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Dollar is actually faring ok - up slightly.

the dollar has been kicking butt for the last two days.  Word has it that the EU is more exposed than the U.S...so the trend is expected to continue.