🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[MillennialModerate]

So I know nothing about this:

What party is Merkel?

Whose going to win?

What kind of system do they have? (Similar to….?)

What’s the spectrum alignment of the leading parties? (LEFT to RIGHT)

[brucejoel99]

cdu is in shambles, lash**t reminds me of mccain 2008, he knows he doesn't have a chance after his predcessor destroyed the country and the party, but he plays along

[RGM2609]

So I know nothing about this:

What party is Merkel?

Whose going to win?

What kind of system do they have? (Similar to….?)

What’s the spectrum alignment of the leading parties? (LEFT to RIGHT)

1. CDU
2. Still a toss-up, lean SPD
3. Half FPTP, half PR with overhang seats to keep proportionality.
4. Linke-Greens-SPD-FDP-CDU-AFD

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

cdu is in shambles, lash**t reminds me of mccain 2008, he knows he doesn't have a chance after his predcessor destroyed the country and the party, but he plays along

Merkel is more comparable in electoral terms to Obama rather than Bush, except if you are taking into account only the 2005 election.
Merkel did not "destroy" the CDU. Hell, in 2013, they almost won a majority (together with the CSU).

[Yeahsayyeah]

So I know nothing about this:

What party is Merkel?

CDU... in 1990 she shortly was a member of "Demokratischer Aufbruch", "Democratic departure", a part of the GDR civil rights movement, that merged into the CDU

Whose going to win?

SPD will get the most votes and probably be the largest parliamentary faction. FDP with sligth gains. Greens with large gains, but underwhelming in comparison to the polls some months ago. CDU/CSU, and Linke clear losses. AfD slight losses. BUt who will be the chancellor and who will form a coalition government is to be seen.

What kind of system do they have? (Similar to….?)

Proportional representation with a 5 per cent threshold, but 299 of the 598 seats filled by First past the post with compensation seats.

What’s the spectrum alignment of the leading parties? (LEFT to RIGHT)

Left - Greens/SPD - FDP/CDU - CSU - AfD

[Oryxslayer]

Brandenburg results, for those interested.

[NOVA Green]

Anybody know how the mail in votes are being counted?

I was reading an estimated 40% of the ballots cast will be mail-in this year, up from 29% last election, and was curious if we can expect this to play a role as election results continue to come in.

[Logical]

We have our first complete constituency results!
Wahlkreis 241 Ansbach
CSU down 7%, FW at 7,7%. Turnout up 2%.

[Yeahsayyeah]

CSU held Ansbach

According to the Saxony state site SPD gains Chemnitz (!!) (from CDU)

[Sven der Igel]

Brandenburg results, for those interested.

In Potsdam, Scholz + Baerbock are running in the same district (Scholz is winning easily).

Both are carpetbaggers though, coming from Lower Saxony originally.

[Alcibiades]

I’m not sure if anyone had this on their bingo card of big names potentially missing out on a seat in the Bundestag.

https://mobile.twitter.com/emrshtn/status/1442204519069323265?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

[The Mikado]

Proportional representation with a 5 per cent threshold, but 299 of the 598 seats filled by First past the post with compensation seats.

I love how Germans just blow past this when describing their system and not going into the fact that the overhang seats are this complex ridiculous mess only a mathematician could understand.

Only Germans would invent a system like this in the late 1940s pre-computer, when the math would've been seriously non-trivial.

[randomusername]

I’m not sure if anyone had this on their bingo card of big names potentially missing out on a seat in the Bundestag.

https://mobile.twitter.com/emrshtn/status/1442204519069323265?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

Portillo moment?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

3. Half FPTP, half PR with overhang seats to keep proportionality.

Technically speaking, that's actually wrong.
We have a proportional system. The direct seat won by a party are reckoned up with the number of list seats won by a party via proportional second vote. That's why our voting system is called "personalisiertes Verhältniswahlrecht".

4. Linke-Greens-SPD-FDP-CDU-AfD

Mmmmmmmmhhh...
That's one possible answer, but many pundits would switch SPD and Greens.

[Antonio the Sixth]

3. Half FPTP, half PR with overhang seats to keep proportionality.

Technically speaking, that's actually wrong.
We have a proportional system. The direct seat won by a party are reckoned up with the number of list seats won by a party via proportional second vote. That's why our voting system is called "personalisiertes Verhältniswahlrecht".

4. Linke-Greens-SPD-FDP-CDU-AfD

Mmmmmmmmhhh...
That's one possible answer, but many pundits would switch SPD and Greens.

And FDP and CDU.

[Yeahsayyeah]

It's not that hard to understand. If a party gets more districts seats than they would have seats by proportional votes, it gets overhang seats... The really mess began when they introduced compensation seats in the most complicated and byzantine way one could imagine. And the last "reform" prior to this election did not make this better.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Anybody know how the mail in votes are being counted?

I was reading an estimated 40% of the ballots cast will be mail-in this year, up from 29% last election, and was curious if we can expect this to play a role as election results continue to come in.

They are counted along with the ballot box votes.

[Yeahsayyeah]

3. Half FPTP, half PR with overhang seats to keep proportionality.

Technically speaking, that's actually wrong.
We have a proportional system. The direct seat won by a party are reckoned up with the number of list seats won by a party via proportional second vote. That's why our voting system is called "personalisiertes Verhältniswahlrecht".

4. Linke-Greens-SPD-FDP-CDU-AfD

Mmmmmmmmhhh...
That's one possible answer, but many pundits would switch SPD and Greens.

Please note, how I put SPD and Greens and CDU and FDP on the same level to not account for different policy fields and cultural things. For not being informed at all, it is enough to now that SPD and Greens are the centre-left and FDP and CDU and arguably CSU are the centre-right.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I’m not sure if anyone had this on their bingo card of big names potentially missing out on a seat in the Bundestag.

https://mobile.twitter.com/emrshtn/status/1442204519069323265?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

Portillo moment?

More, say, [to use a very easy to understand example], a case of DeSantis being R nominee in 2024 and losing, so he goes back to being Governor of Florida.

[Logical]

FW getting 10%+ in rural Bavaria. I think they would be a major threat to the Union in the next election.

[urutzizu]

I’m not sure if anyone had this on their bingo card of big names potentially missing out on a seat in the Bundestag.

Almost happened in the 2017 NRW election (in the end Armin won Aachen II by 1pct), the contingency is simply that one member is asked to resign (in exchange for some wink wink well paid position in the party/stiftung or in CDU-close industry), and then the first person on the list gets in. Question is of course if CDU even wants Laschet as Fraction Leader after this.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Lindner says the Greens and FDP should first hold discussions together about the third partner. Could be big news.

[Yeahsayyeah]

FW getting 10%+ in rural Bavaria. I think they would be a major threat to the Union in the next election.

Well, they were founded as an anti-CSU-monopoly conservative party in Bavaria and have their strongest base, there. They have expanded, since then, and are costing the CDU/CSU votes, but it would still need a quiite large shift to get over the five percent threshold, alone.

[soundchaser]

Lindner says the Greens and FDP should first hold discussions together about the third partner. Could be big news.

I understand why the FDP might prefer a Jamaica coalition, but why would the Greens? Do they think they’d have more negotiating leverage than with the SPD?

[NOVA Green]

Nothing from Baden-Württemberg yet?