Edwards / Warner vs. Allen / Romney

[adam]

That fantasy won't happen.

[adam]

Allen/Romeny - 52% - 337 EVs
Edwards/Warner - 47% - 201 EVs

Edwards lack of experience and previous failure as a vice-presidential candidate seal his fate versus the strong experienced ticket of a long time souther senator and a fairly popular new England Republicans governor.

[adam]

Allen/Romeny - 52% - 337 EVs
Edwards/Warner - 47% - 201 EVs

Edwards lack of experience and previous failure as a vice-presidential candidate seal his fate versus the strong experienced ticket of a long time souther senator and a fairly popular new England Republicans governor.

So Minnesota goes Republican for the first time in 36 years for Allen over Edwards? I don't think so.

Minnesota is like Ohio, always close but rarely different. I think Edwards lack of appeal and experience would be enough to seal his fate against the well known Allen. Especially with the moderat Romney on the ticket.

[adam]

First sentence: MN has the longest running streak of going Democratic in the nation.  It's been over the trend line Dem in every election since '72.  Ohio was actually more Kerry than the nationwide vote was in 2004, and Clinton won it twice.

This is true, Colorado would have been a better example.

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http://www.pollingreport.com/WH08dem.htm I don't Edwards is as popular as you think. He is a failed VP candidate and a one term senator.

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That's problem. Edwards will have been out of the Senate (which he served one term in) for a total of four years. There are one term senators that lose primary races for their state governorship, what makes you think Edwards could win the presidency with such a short resume.

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Yes Edwards is more well known than Allen, but not in a good way. As I said, he is a failed VP candidate and a lawyer for Christ's sake. People don't trust time and can see past his botox. While Allen doesn't have as much name recognition as Edwards, he has a far higher approval rating.

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The job of the VP candidate is to bring in voters that might be hesitant to vote for the top candidate. That's why Kerry picked Edwards, he was told that Edwards might bring in southern voters - it failed miserably, but that was the point. Romney would run as a social moderate and an economic conservative in order to draw in the independents which are trending Democrat.

[adam]

1920 election:

Harding/Coolidge 60.32%
Cox / FDR 34.15%

FDR was a complete loser.

The difference is that FDR went on to be governor of New York and built up his resume. Edwards didn't do much of anything.

[adam]

Vlad-

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2004: 51-47
2000: 50-42
1996: 45-44
1992: 35-40
1988: 53-45
1968: 50-41

In other words, with the exception of the Carter and Reagan elections...Colorado has been fairly close for a long time.

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I don't know what polls you talk to, but I talk to people in my moderate home state of Ohio, my conservative residency of Texas, and my very liberal second home of NYC and I haven't spoken to one person that has a favorable opinion of Edwards. People see him as a fake and I can't say that I disagree.

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Republican fatigue isn't as high as the fatigue with illegal immigration is, and Edwards has big glaring pro-amnesty comments on his record. Think this is wrong? See the CA-50 special election that Bilbray won running strictly on an anti-amnesty platform.

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I think people have the misconception that the GOP runs under a very small tent that pushes out social moderates and social liberals. I have said it a million times and I'll say it again...the candidate that sells his plans to crack down on illegal immigration will make the ticket regardless of his gay marriage and abortion planks.

[adam]

The "people I know don't like him" statement isn't an argument.

I said the people I've talked to. Unlike most people who just pull things out of their ass, I go out and ask people.

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While those are decent for a loser, those aren't stellar. Not good enough to signify him a winner.

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1. Wrong, just wrong. All polls indicate that a vast majority of Americans are opposed to to amnesty and support various programs to cut back on illegal immigration. http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/04/03/immigration.poll/

2. Roadmap to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. (Jan 2004) check out his "ontheissues" page.

3. That's not the point. The election has just proven that the displeasure with illegal immigration out ways the fatigue with the "GOP culture of corruption". Republican district or not, if the fatigue with the GOP was so much more important it would have helped Busby beat a one-issue candidate.

[adam]

Sorry, but that's not an argument.  I can say (correctly) that most people I know like Edwards, but it has no bearing on the rest of the country.  It can't be verified and is a small, unscientific sample size.

Again, you missed my point. I don't know most of the people I speak to on these issues. I go out and collect information from time to time.

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Bush didn't win, Kerry lost. Kerry blew an election that just about anyone else could have won. 2004 isn't really a good example.

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Fair enough...

http://www.cis.org/articles/2006/2006poll.html
http://www.cnn.com/POLL/results/1599291.html
http://www.npg.org/facts/immpolls.htm
http://www.balance.org/asap/asappolls.html
http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/03/27/D8GK40R09.html

I can post more..

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I do factor that in. However it doesn't change the fact that Busby lost to a one issue candidate within the same party as the ousted Cunningham. No less, Bilbray had independent William Griffith drawing 3.72% from him. The idea behind this election is that the Democrats put out the idea that people would show up in packs to help Busby landslide Bilbray in retaliation tot he "corruption culture", this obviously didn't happen.

[adam]

That still doesn't work.  You can't use "the people I talk to don't like him" as an argument.

If I can't, than why can any pollsters? What makes my data so much more invalid.

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I doubt that. Kerry lost because he couldn't make up his mind, I would be willing to bet that a Wes Clark or a Richard Gephardt could have been able to trump Bush. Granted, Bush's approval rating was higher than normal during the election...but Kerry had plenty of ammunition that he never got a chance to use. He was far to busy trying to save his ass from the media.

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As I said, I understand that it's a very partisan district. However,  let's put it this way. Busby was leading in polls until she made a remark encouraging illegal immigrants to support her campaign. She then floundered and lost the election to an otherwise weak candidate. I am not denying that she did decently (granted with the help of a conservative independent)...the point that I am trying to make is that one dumb comment on immigration killed her campaign....proving that the corruption culture strategy isn't going to overwhelm this issue. It would be dumb for Democratic strategists to suggest that.

[adam]

Hell, why can't I perform brain surgery?  What makes me so much less qualified than doctors?

Because they go to Doctor's school, lol. I don't thinkt hey have pollster school, otherwise I might go for awhile.

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Likewise sir. Agree to disagree.