(pre-Ryan)Wapo/Kaiser: Obama +7

[Umengus]

biased sample like you can imagine...

[Umengus]

biased sample like you can imagine...

is that a joke or do you have data to point at that shows a bias?

5/6. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as: (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or what?
                                                             
          Democrat   Republican   Independent   Other/None   No opinion 
8/5/12       34          25            34          4              3     
6/3/07       36          27            29          4              3     
8/18/98      30          27            30         12              1     

[Umengus]

Those are the numbers for all adults and they only show a Dem+9 sample. That is the group that has Obama+12 vs Romney. The RV sample (based on registration % question) are
Dem: 34%, GOP 27%, Ind 33%, or a Dem +7.

Again, where is the bias? 

D+7 is biased... considering that 2012 will be very different than 2008...

[Umengus]

Those are the numbers for all adults and they only show a Dem+9 sample. That is the group that has Obama+12 vs Romney. The RV sample (based on registration % question) are
Dem: 34%, GOP 27%, Ind 33%, or a Dem +7.

Again, where is the bias? 

D+7 is biased... considering that 2012 will be very different than 2008...

D+7 isn't that biased. And the poll isn't either. Do you ever pay attention to the poll 'per se', and not only the partisan sample?

if the sample is biased, all is biased... I guess a tied, D+1 or +2 on the election day. So D+7...

[Umengus]

Those are the numbers for all adults and they only show a Dem+9 sample. That is the group that has Obama+12 vs Romney. The RV sample (based on registration % question) are
Dem: 34%, GOP 27%, Ind 33%, or a Dem +7.

Again, where is the bias? 

D+7 is biased... considering that 2012 will be very different than 2008...

D+7 isn't that biased. And the poll isn't either. Do you ever pay attention to the poll 'per se', and not only the partisan sample?

if the sample is biased, all is biased... I guess a tied, D+1 or +2 on the election day. So D+7...

Obama has a Muslim connection.

"muslim connection" is not bad per se... it's just a very good link with muslim leader and voters...