Australia 2022 Election

[Mike88]

I think people are in denial about just how big a win the ALP is set to have. Polls are now averaging an 8 point lead in two party preferred. That is a landslide for Australia. I know people feel burned by what happened in 2019 but it reminds of how after the polling error in 1992 people in the UK still kept insisting that the Tories could still win in 1997 even when every poll gave Labour a double digit lead.

But I thought that Morrison is still polling ahead of Albanese for preferred PM.  Would that not indicate the election is likely to be closer than 2 party preferred might indicate?

The preferred PM polls have also narrowed a lot, and Albanese has been leading Morrison in some polls since early April. The last Ipsos poll has Albanese ahead of Morisson 41-36% for preferred PM.

[Mike88]

I think people are in denial about just how big a win the ALP is set to have. Polls are now averaging an 8 point lead in two party preferred. That is a landslide for Australia. I know people feel burned by what happened in 2019 but it reminds of how after the polling error in 1992 people in the UK still kept insisting that the Tories could still win in 1997 even when every poll gave Labour a double digit lead.

But I thought that Morrison is still polling ahead of Albanese for preferred PM.  Would that not indicate the election is likely to be closer than 2 party preferred might indicate?

The preferred PM polls have also narrowed a lot, and Albanese has been leading Morrison in some polls since early April. The last Ipsos poll has Albanese ahead of Morisson 41-36% for preferred PM.

https://theconversation.com/labor-seizes-large-lead-in-newspoll-and-ipsos-impact-of-how-to-vote-cards-is-exaggerated-182323

Says that the latest Newspoll still has Morisson ahead of Albanese 44-42 even as Lab is ahead 54-46 in 2 party vote.

Yes, of course, nonetheless, they have narrowed considerably compared with, for example, the beginning of this year or late last year. Looking from the outside, and this coming from someone who has just an average knowledge of Australian politics, I think that voters are not impressed with neither Albanese or Morrison, but because the Liberals have been in power for almost 10 years, plus Morisson is no longer a "new thing" like he was in 2019, Labor are much more likely to win this time. Like the saying goes: "Oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them."

[Mike88]

Sorry, just arrived here. Teals means Independents, right?

[Mike88]

Thanks for the info! Interesting wins for these Independents. Also, Labor is at 72 seats now, I know it's still early, but it seems almost certain that Albanese will become PM.

[Mike88]

On Sky they are suggesting that Labor is on track to win a majority.

[Mike88]

With in doubt seats tendencies, the current tally is the following:

76 Labor
60 Coalition
  3 Green
  1 Katter
11 Independents

Bennelong, Deakin, Gilmore, Lyons and Menzies are literally 50-50 and could fall for either the ALP or LNP.

Morrison conceded defeat and will resign from the Liberal leadership.

[Mike88]

7News projects a Labor majority government.

[Mike88]

Don't know if someone wrote about this but, the remaining 37%, of votes still to be counted, are basically postal votes, right? Do they have a tendency to lean ALP or LNP?

[Mike88]

Update:

With 12 seats in doubt, but according to the current trend, the seat tally is as follows:

79 Labor
56 Coalition
  4 Greens
  1 Katter
11 Independents

Bennelong, Deakin, Gilmore and Lyons are trending Labor now, while Menzis is still trending for the Coalition.

[Mike88]

Don't know if it was raised here but, what is happening in Macnamara, Brisbane and Wannon? There are no TCP data in the AEC website. At the same time, it seems almost certain that Labor will reach, at maximum, 77 seats, right?

[Mike88]

Don't know if it was raised here but, what is happening in Macnamara, Brisbane and Wannon? There are no TCP data in the AEC website. At the same time, it seems almost certain that Labor will reach, at maximum, 77 seats, right?

That's an indicator that they're either unsure of who will be the final 2 candidates left (in the case of Macnamara and Brisbane), or they're stopping their initial TCP count because it's clear the two candidates they were initially counting to aren't going to be the final two (though he isn't close enough to win, Alex Dyson is the clear second in Wannon).

For me, I already have Labor on 75, and it's still theoretically possible that they win Brisbane, Deakin, Gilmore and Lyons for 79. Hope is fading in Deakin in particular, though, and Brisbane and Gilmore are on a knife edge at the moment.

Thanks for the info Indeed, the 1st preferences in these 3 seats are close, with Brisbane being the closest. Postal voting could swing a few seats for either side still.

[Mike88]

All the ballots have been counted as all seats have been declared. The final turnout feel bellow 90% for the first time since 1922, just before compulsory voting was introduced.

The final TPP numbers have Labor at 52.1% and the Coalition at 47.9%.