NYT/Siena Polls of 6 Battleground States

[slothdem]

I know Sienna is very accurate, but some of these numbers are hard to swallow. Michigan being to the right of Florida and Arizona being the biggest red flag.

I totally agree. PA/NC/WI are very plausible but MI and FL numbers are hard to swallow

Right... Biden is somehow winning FL by 2 but tying in Michigan?

The only caveat to these #s is most only add up to about ~90% so the last minute deciders will be key again like 2016, where they broke for Trump. I just don't imagine them breaking for him this time.

Cohn said that they had the smallest sample in Michigan by a lot and that it was harder to reach people. I think it's probavly off, the Warren numbers are especially implausible. The rest of the numbers are believable though, and the Arizona numbers make me wish we got polls of Georgia and Texas.

[slothdem]

Why is Warren doing better in Arizona then Michigan or Pennsylvania

Because trends are real.

[slothdem]

And it's important to note that Siena's polls for Senate races last year were biased toward Republicans. They had McSally and Heller winning, as well as having Cruz up 8%.

This is a pollster connected the New York Times who employers Nate Silver who went off on Twitter using the right-wing slang ""libs". Not sure it's wise to buy into these polls considering that.
 

They were the single best pollster of last cycle. And yes, Democrats over perform their polls in heavily Hispanic areas. This is known.

[slothdem]

And it's important to note that Siena's polls for Senate races last year were biased toward Republicans. They had McSally and Heller winning, as well as having Cruz up 8%.

This is a pollster connected the New York Times who employers Nate Silver who went off on Twitter using the right-wing slang ""libs". Not sure it's wise to buy into these polls considering that.
 

Highly deranged stuff. You can also pretty easily check who Nate Silver is employed by currently.

The fact that you feel the need to call me deranged for not believing a poll says more about you than it does about me. If you want to hear deranged go listen to the audio of conservative leader Richard Spencer ranting after Charlottesville. But that's off topic so I won't dwell on it here.

Knock off the insults.

He didn't call you deranged because you don't "believe" a poll. He called you deranged because you think the poll is the result of a pro-Trump conspiracy, ran by the NY Times because they once employed Nate Silver (who was not involved in the poll!), because he used the word "lib" in a tweet recently.

[slothdem]

The Democratic meltdown over this poll is especially something given that they show a close Biden win, a razor thin Bernie win, and a razor thin Warren loss, with the incumbent in the mid-40's against all. Trump may win re-election, but this is his rosiest legitimate poll and it shows a toss-up race.

And the popular vote may well be Safe D.