Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[UWS]

Russia's position into Black Sea is undermined as they have seven warships left which I think is going to facilitate a Ukrainian operation to retake Crimea and complicate Russian efforts approvision for their units

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-crisis-black-sea-fleet-ships-crimea-1760369

[UWS]

There is still hopes for Ukrainians to hold Bakmut. If Bakmut can hold for a month, for the time for Western tanks to arrive in Ukraine in either late March or early April, that will give Ukrainians the advantage thanks to a counteroffensive to free the entire Bakmut region thanks to those tanks, including Leopard 2 and Abrams, and then to launch a Ukrainian offensive to free the all the occupied territory by undermining Russians' trench warfare ability

[UWS]

There is still hopes for Ukrainians to hold Bakmut. If Bakmut can hold for a month, for the time for Western tanks to arrive in Ukraine in either late March or early April, that will give Ukrainians the advantage thanks to a counteroffensive to free the entire Bakmut region thanks to those tanks, including Leopard 2 and Abrams, and then to launch a Ukrainian offensive to free the all the occupied territory by undermining Russians' trench warfare ability

You can't have any offensives in Ukraine if the temperature is between 35-75F, the ground will be too muddy and any mechanized force will be stuck on narrow roads.

Anyway tanks have been mostly useless in war since the Toyota War, and fighter jets since Iraq.

No modern army has won a proper war since 1991, and before that WW2, all victorious armies have been highly trained and equiped motorised militias.

It's what lead to massive Ukrainian victories over the Russian army in 2022.

They need lots and lots of pickup trucks and hand-held missiles, not tanks and jets that are easy targets.

Look at how easy precision Rocket Artilley (HIMARS) has replaced the Airforce, and Javelins the tanks.

HIMARS are precisely among the weapons recently announced to be delivered to Ukraine

[UWS]

Here are what I think the West should provide to Ukraine : A-10 Warthogs that have a reputation as being effective tank slaughtering warplanes. In fact during the Gulf War, these warplanes bombarded 1000 Iraqi Guard tanks, 2000 military vehicles and 1200 artillery pieces

[UWS]

According to this video, Ukraine has already mobilized 60,000 troops for the spring counteroffensive

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47B-wvyrB2A

[UWS]

Parliament of Hungary ratified Finland’s NATO membership
https://www.euronews.com/2023/03/27/nato-hungarian-parliament-ratifies-finlands-membership

[UWS]

And as Finland will likely be a member of NATO by next summer due to Hungary's parliament's decision to ratify Finland's NATO membership, that will checkmate Russia as Finland has the largest border with Russia (which is 1300 km)

[UWS]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1640429678820204573
So Germany looks like it wants to firmly step up for Ukraine over the indecisive way they have been in the past

It will likely speed Kyiv's efforts to prepare the spring counteroffensivewhich Kyiv said requires additional weapons/artillery

[UWS]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1AcPYNyAPo
«100 A10 Warthogs will enter Ukraine Immediately»

That should give a clear advantage for Ukraine as these warplanes have a reputation as tank slayers because in Gulf War, A10 Warthogs bombarded 1000 Iraqi Guard tanks, 2000 military vehicles and 1200 artillery pieces

[UWS]

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/15651

Patriot missile system, NASAMS short range missiles and SAMP/T short range missiles are on their way for Ukraine

[UWS]

https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/ukraine-wie-angela-merkel-2008-den-nato-beitritt-verhinderte-spiegel-rekonstruktion-a-f8c94810-17c8-4533-be5c-7fa08cdd23fc

"The Day the War Began"

The blame game begins in Germany.  Spiegel now blames Merkal for the current situation saying that she should not have blocked USA's proposal for Ukraine to join NATO in 2008 when Russia most likely was too weak to stop it from taking place.

As John McCain said when he ran for President of the United States in 2008, the delaying of the process of integrating Georgia and Ukraine into NATO has been seen by Russia as a greenlight to invade Georgia in 2008.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_John_McCain#Georgia_and_South_Ossetia_War

[UWS]

The pilot’s training is accelerating as F 16s arrived in Denmark to pursue pilot training. Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands and Norway could provide towards 60 F 16s, which will give an advantage for Ukrainians. And Denmark’s F 16s will arrive in the second trimester.

https://nouvelles-dujour.com/la-formation-des-pilotes-saccelere/
This along with Ukrainians’ successes inside the Black Sea and also imminent NATO membership of Sweden I think Emperor Palputin should be panicked

[UWS]

Russian Army lost 90 % of its vehicles in the drone kill zone towards Krynky"

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/01/09/russians-lives-are-temporary-in-the-drone-kill-zone-around-krynky-90-percent-of-vehicles-dont-come-back/?sh=a1db614291cd

[UWS]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-nato-operation-steadfast-defender/

[UWS]

The EU stated that they will have the capacity to manufacture 1.4 million artillery shells by the end of December 2024 and will deliver the majority to Ukraine;

https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-20-2024

[UWS]

NATO's expansion is getting some development for the coming week/

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2024/01/22/Turkish-parliament-to-vote-Tuesday-on-Sweden-s-NATO-membership-Report

[UWS]

Russians lose 12 times more equipment around Avdiivka than AFU;

https://ukranews.com/en/news/979515-russians-lose-12-times-more-equipment-around-avdiivka-than-afu-osint

[UWS]

Storms also play a role in troubling the Russian oil exports

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-23/russia-s-oil-exports-hit-by-storms-and-ukrainian-drone-strike

[UWS]

https://kyivindependent.com/swedish-minister-open-to-jets-for-ukraine-once-sweden-enters-nato/

If Sweden does indeed become a NATO member on February 26 their jets will be coming so early

[UWS]

With Sweden's jets coming after NATO membership as well as Denmark's F 16s coming in the second trimester I think the prospects for an air offensive in the summer are setting up2

[UWS]

https://kyivindependent.com/france-netherlands-back-czech-plan-to-buy-ammunition-for-ukraine-outside-eu/

[UWS]

https://www.midilibre.fr/2024/03/31/guerre-en-ukraine-des-centaines-de-blindes-et-missiles-la-france-va-livrer-des-equipements-anciens-mais-operationnels-a-kiev-11861155.php|

France to deliver armored vehicles and missiles towards Ukraine|

[UWS]

https://ilkha.com/english/world/putin-signs-decree-to-conscript-150000-citizens-in-spring-military-campaign-386058

In the context of the War in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin signed a decree calling to mobilize 150,000 people over 18 to service in the Russian Army. That is another evidence that Putin is preparing a large-scale offensive in Ukraine in May or June. That’s why the U.S. and their Allie’s must accelerate the providing of military aid to Ukraine in order to counter that threat, to counter such an offensive#

[UWS]

The ISW reports that following Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries Russia is looking at Kazakhstan in case of oil shortages. Looks like Russians are afraid of suffering such potential

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

[UWS]

Also, Ukrainians have counterattacked and retook some of lost positions in the Avdiivka area

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor