Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Logical]

Someone asked if there is a counting bias in Spain and the answer is yes. The right bloc usually gains about 10 seats in the final results compared to the first results.


http://www.malaprensa.com/2023/07/pistas-para-entender-los-resultados.html?m=1

[jaichind]

Will Sumar show up on the results wite (https://resultados.generales23j.es/es/inicio/0) as one list of multiple (like Podemos did in the last few elections) ?

[jaichind]

VOX spokesperson Ignacio Garriga said the party “won’t give away their votes” and that “they’ll do anything for a change of direction” in Spanish politics

[Harlow]

VOX spokesperson Ignacio Garriga said the party “won’t give away their votes” and that “they’ll do anything for a change of direction” in Spanish politics

Is it just me or do these seem like contradictory statements

[jaichind]

VOX spokesperson Ignacio Garriga said the party “won’t give away their votes” and that “they’ll do anything for a change of direction” in Spanish politics

Is it just me or do these seem like contradictory statements

I read it as VOX will join any government that will oust the PSOE government but will insist on being in said government as opposed to being on the outside.

[Harlow]

VOX spokesperson Ignacio Garriga said the party “won’t give away their votes” and that “they’ll do anything for a change of direction” in Spanish politics

Is it just me or do these seem like contradictory statements

I read it as VOX will join any government that will oust the PSOE government but will insist on being in said government as opposed to being on the outside.

That makes sense.

I was going to make a joke like "I'd do anything for gov (but I won't do that)"

[Logical]

If PP + VOX are at 170 seats when the results are released in 5 minutes they will probably win a majority but the number of mail votes tripling compared to 2019 can make things unpredictable.

[kaoras]

Will Sumar show up on the results wite (https://resultados.generales23j.es/es/inicio/0) as one list of multiple (like Podemos did in the last few elections) ?

From what I can tell from the official election app, they will appear as a single list

[jaichind]

If PP + VOX are at 170 seats when the results are released in 5 minutes they will probably win a majority but the number of mail votes tripling compared to 2019 can make things unpredictable.

Will they count mail-in votes before, at the same time, or after the election ballots are counted?

[Logical]

If PP + VOX are at 170 seats when the results are released in 5 minutes they will probably win a majority but the number of mail votes tripling compared to 2019 can make things unpredictable.

Will they count mail-in votes before, at the same time, or after the election ballots are counted?

Mail ballots are counted last.

[kaoras]

One potential nightmarish escenario is PP and Vox getting a very tight majority (~176 seats) and then losing it when the vote from Spaniards living in foreign countries is counted a few days later.

The CERA vote is overwhelmingly leftwing and broke record numbers since the process was simplified. Asturias election in 2012 was decided by it.

If that happens, the behavior of PP and Vox is not going to be pretty

[kaoras]

If PP + VOX are at 170 seats when the results are released in 5 minutes they will probably win a majority but the number of mail votes tripling compared to 2019 can make things unpredictable.

Will they count mail-in votes before, at the same time, or after the election ballots are counted?

Mail ballots are counted last.

I was told that they are mixed with the election day vote and counted at the same time.

[jaichind]

If PP + VOX  fail to win 176 seats one thing to watch later on will be whether Sanchez actually concedes defeat since failure to do so means he will do everything to try to continue in government.

[Mike88]

10.07% reporting:

31.3% PSOE
28.8% PP
10.4% Vox
10.2% Sumar

PP+Vox= 155
PSOE+Sumar= 152

[somerandomth]

Are these early reporting areas expected to be heavily slanted towards PSOE?

[kaoras]

10.07% reporting:

31.3% PSOE
28.8% PP
10.4% Vox
10.2% Sumar

PP+Vox= 155
PSOE+Sumar= 152

If it follows the trends of last elections it will be a very tight Right majority or another election

[Logical]

FIRST RESULTS

PSOE 129
PP 124
VOX 31
SUMAR 23
ERC 7
JXC 7
EB 6
PNV 5
BNG 1
UPN 1

[jaichind]

The Catalonia regionalist parties seems to be losing a lot of ground.  Is that part of the count bias?

[It’s so Joever]

Andalusia really is going to be the rust belt this cycle isn’t it?

[Zinneke]

The Catalonia regionalist parties seems to be losing a lot of ground.  Is that part of the count bias?

Abstention or transfers from ERC/Junts to PSC/PSOE because the national issue might be less important than blocking Vox (which is, well, also about the national identity issue).

I think peripheral nationalists are abstaining a lot and that helps PSOE in those constituencies. But still early days.

[Red Velvet]

Yay, so far it’s looking like it will be a close tie, but with a sliiiight right-wing lead over the left.

Hopefully this means the right isn’t able to do anything, while Vox in power contaminates their popularity soooo much that the left wins BIG in the next elections.

[Oryxslayer]

The Catalonia regionalist parties seems to be losing a lot of ground.  Is that part of the count bias?

Likely a little bit of column A and a little from Column B. Catalonia is the only place turnout went down when accounting for mail votes, and it went down a lot. The expectation is abstention from the separatists. If you remove those voters with nothing else happening then the combined Left would more likely then not get the lost seats since it has the next largest base. Which would make it easier for Sanchez to build an alternative government if PP+VOX end up less than 175, simply by pulling seats from the noncooperationists.

But the Right would also get a few seats from them as well. The classic maneuver of not participating in a free and fair election (in contrast to an authoritarian one with a predetermined result) and then complaining when the results don't have any place for your views.

[President Johnson]

Like in Sweden, I just don't understand why a "grand coalition" between the two major parties isn't a realistic option to keep the right-wing populists out of power? It's really much different from Germany or Austria.

[windjammer]

Like in Sweden, I just don't understand why a "grand coalition" between the two major parties isn't a realistic option to keep the right-wing populists out of power? It's really much different from Germany or Austria.

Spain is much more polarized than Germany.

[DavidB.]

Like in Sweden, I just don't understand why a "grand coalition" between the two major parties isn't a realistic option to keep the right-wing populists out of power?

Funny how this talking point is only ever used when the right win. PSOE could have entered a coalition with PP instead of radical left Podemos after the last election too.

It's really much different from Germany or Austria.

As for Austria, it's not as if ÖVP haven't governed with the FPÖ. As for Germany, give it 10 years.