Orange County by City/Town (user search)
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Author Topic: Orange County by City/Town  (Read 4108 times)
Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,835
United States


« on: November 21, 2020, 02:34:44 AM »

I haven't seen any official data yet, but from precinct results I'm guessing these are the flips:
Trump to Biden:
Laguna Niguel
Laguna Hills
Mission Viejo
Lake Forest
Tustin

Clinton to Trump:
Westminster
Garden Grove
Fountain Valley
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,835
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2020, 01:38:12 PM »
« Edited: November 28, 2020, 01:36:56 PM by Blairite »

Sorted by margin:
Santa Ana: D+38.5
Irvine: D+30.2
Laguna Beach: D+28.2
Tustin: D+23.5
Anaheim: D+19.2
Fullerton: D+16.9
Aliso Viejo: D+15.0
Buena Park: D+16.8
La Habra: D+14.6
Costa Mesa: D+14.3
Stanton: D+14.2
La Palma: D+13.3
Laguna Woods: D+10.3
Cypress: D+8.4
Orange: D+7.1
Lake Forest: D+6.9
Los Alamitos: D+5.8
Laguna Hills: D+5.8
Placentia: D+5.6
Laguna Niguel: D+4.6
Brea: D+2.9
Seal Beach: D+2.2
Mission Viejo: D+1.9
Garden Grove: D+1.1

Rancho Santa Margarita: R+1.9
Huntington Beach: R+3.2
Dana Point: R+3.3
San Juan Capistrano: R+3.5
Fountain Valley: R+3.8
Westminster: R+9.1
Newport Beach: R+9.6
San Clemente: R+9.7
Yorba Linda: R+17.2
Villa Park: R+21.7


If you know the area well, you can see some pretty heavy #TRENDZ on display here. If Irvine ever votes left of Santa Ana, the realignment is complete.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,835
United States


« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2020, 03:08:54 PM »

What year are these swings relative to? The R swings in Garden Grove, Westminster, and Fountain Valley are way too small to be from 2016. They can't be from 2012 either because Biden won a higher percentage of the vote in Fountain Valley than Obama did.

Theoretically 2016, but it appears I mistranscribed from Excel. I'll update it in a bit.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,835
United States


« Reply #3 on: December 05, 2020, 01:45:18 PM »

It is a precinct with very few children, because the homes have views, and the better the view, the higher the cost per square foot, and at a given price point, those with kids would prefer more square feet in lieu of a view. Well to do well educated Californian older white people in large metro areas tend not to be MAGA types.  Who knew?

Me actually (including in this very specific slice of the county.) I interact with these people often enough and a lot of them didn't only vote for Biden but also switched their party registration. I'm always shocked by how Republican this demographic is in other states, particularly in the South, considering my experiences with them in Southern California.
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