Canadian by-elections 2023

[Benjamin Frank]

Hate to be that guy, but I don't think there's anything to be interpreted from the Hamilton Centre byelection. Sure, a slight NDP->OLP transfer, but that's probably reversion to the mean more than anything else. I mean, not only did Horwath have a leadership bump, she held this riding and its predecessor for 18 years. The OLP has a lot of work to do before we can definitively say they're back.

On top of that, Hamilton Centre is as quintessentially NDP as it gets. The Liberals do have a history of winning here, but it requires many things to go right for them and wrong for the NDP. If Trudeaumania (TM) wasn't enough to even get within striking distance of turning this seat red, Minivan Caucus (TM) never had a chance. Obviously the PCs are a complete non-starter here, and it showed.

Well, there would have been no urge to interpret anything were it not for the NDP candidate controversy "forcing the issue".  Were it a more orthodox "Matthew Green" type of municipal leftist bearing the standard, there really would be no reason to bother seeing anything here.  But w/Jama, the main story is the negligible effect said controversy had on the vote.

And sure, the OLP have a minivan caucus--however, they just had their annual meeting in Hamilton which, on paper, *ought to have* energized the base; and we know from the Lib Dems in the UK that monkey-in-the-middle rump "middle parties" *can* muster a lot of maverick byelection energy.  It's just that, out of power and reduced to a minivan rump two elections in a row, the OLP is *that* energy-depleted.  (That those sounding the alarm over Jama stopped short of endorsing an alternative didn't help the Libs' cause, presuming that they're the only other even vaguely "electable" alternative here.)

If 20% in the byelection isn't Liberalmentum I don't know what is!

[adma]

If 20% in the byelection isn't Liberalmentum I don't know what is!

Well, in all of SW Ontario beyond Burlington last year, they only crossed the 21% threshold *once* (and by a hair, in HESC next door).

[Hatman 🍁]

Speaking of turnout, I think in the current provincial climate low turnout is helping the NDP. According to our post-election polling, most non-voters would have gone PC or Liberal. Makes me think that low information voters are more likely to back the established parties, while high info voters were more aware that the NDP was the main opposition, and therefore they should get your vote to stop the PCs. This is also why the NDP did better than expectations, whereas they normally do worse.

That would also explain how the Ontario NDP did far better in the seat count in the June 2022 than anyone expected. The conventional wisdom was that whatever the final polls showed the NDP would do even worse because in a low turn out environment, their voters would be more likely to stay home - instead the exact opposite happened. I think part of what is happening a reflection of the new "education" factor on turnout. While its true to NDP vote tends to skew younger and lower income, it also skews towards higher levels of education - and people who have more education tend to follow politics and vote more.

I do want to make it clear, when I said the NDP "did better than expected" I was actually referring to the general election, though the same maybe true for the by-election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hate to be that guy, but I don't think there's anything to be interpreted from the Hamilton Centre byelection. Sure, a slight NDP->OLP transfer, but that's probably reversion to the mean more than anything else. I mean, not only did Horwath have a leadership bump, she held this riding and its predecessor for 18 years. The OLP has a lot of work to do before we can definitively say they're back.

On top of that, Hamilton Centre is as quintessentially NDP as it gets. The Liberals do have a history of winning here, but it requires many things to go right for them and wrong for the NDP. If Trudeaumania (TM) wasn't enough to even get within striking distance of turning this seat red, Minivan Caucus (TM) never had a chance. Obviously the PCs are a complete non-starter here, and it showed.

I don't think anyone is suggesting the "Liberals are back" based on a measly 5 point swing. If anything, they underwhelmed (my) expectations.

[toaster]

Mitzi Hunter is running for Toronto mayor.  She must resign her seat in the Ontario legislature.  Risky move for her, if she doesn't win will she run again the by election to replace herself?  Or will Doug call a quick by election (maybe at the same time as Kitchener) so she can't?  ONDP have a shot in this Scarborough riding.

[lilTommy]

Mitzi Hunter is running for Toronto mayor.  She must resign her seat in the Ontario legislature.  Risky move for her, if she doesn't win will she run again the by election to replace herself?  Or will Doug call a quick by election (maybe at the same time as Kitchener) so she can't?  ONDP have a shot in this Scarborough riding.

That mayors race is getting tight for progressives! Matlow, Bailoa, Hunter, Penalosa... Yes risky for her since she isn't a shoe-in to win at all given the other big names coming forward. Perhaps she will pull in the establishment OLP machine which might help her.

Makes sense to have Kitchener Centre and now Scarborough-Guildwood on the same day. But Guildwood is the second worst riding for the NDP last election, only Scar. Agincourt had the NDP polling lower. Not saying the NDP can't win or might not be competitive, it's just never been a top Scarborough target; if this were Scarborough Centre or Scarborough-Rouge Park I think it would be.

[toaster]

I'd say it could be more of a promiscuous progressive riding.  It was a 3 way race in 2018.  In 2022, the riding had a strong progressive incumbent, so no point in replacing her (Hunter) when everyone knew it was going to be a PC majority, so many would-be NDP voters voted for her.  But yes, it will be a tough race but I do think Marit has a shot here with the right candidate.

[adma]

I'd say it could be more of a promiscuous progressive riding.  It was a 3 way race in 2018.  In 2022, the riding had a strong progressive incumbent, so no point in replacing her (Hunter) when everyone knew it was going to be a PC majority, so many would-be NDP voters voted for her.  But yes, it will be a tough race but I do think Marit has a shot here with the right candidate.

Yeah, in the name of "anti-Ford", Mitzie's incumbency rendered a NDP vote redundant.  But keep in mind that in the 2013 provincial byelection that brought Mitzie into Queen's Park in the first place, the NDP's Adam Giambrone made a controversially aggressive bid and finished a strong 3rd w/28.35%, 7.5 points behind Mitzie (and even w/a more nominal campaign in '18, they did not much worse than that and got within 6 points).

Plus going back to 2007, Scarborough-Guildwood saw the first provincial bid from the perennially-overachieving/never-quite-making-it Neethan Shan, and he got 21.9%, which was astronomical for that kind of riding in that particular election (and the NDP's *best* Scarborough result that year, better than even SSW).  Not to mention that impressions of relative '22 NDP success in Scarborough are skewed by Shan bidding for Scarborough Centre that year, and the '18 near-winner in S-Rouge Park reoffering (while Scarborough North simply had a better-than-usual candidate a la Shan and no Mitzi-type Liberal incumbent to hog the left oxygen).

So, in the event of a byelection *presently*, Scarborough-Guildwood is absolutely NDP-targetable--if it's been less-than-top-priority at other times in the recent past, it's due to various "circumstances" or to Scarborough more generally not always being that targetable a proposition for the party (one might argue that both 2011 federally and 2018 provincially "caught them by surprise" in Guildwood).

But one subtler detail behind Liberal strength in Guildwood, both in Mitzie's ability to survive '18 provincially and John McKay's ability to survive '11 federally: monolithic Liberal support in the Muslim zones around Markham & Lawrence even in the worst of times.  Not so much that it'd necessarily impede the NDP, though, given the 3-way marginality of both the '13 byelection and '18 (and '11 federally).

[DL]

But one subtler detail behind Liberal strength in Guildwood, both in Mitzie's ability to survive '18 provincially and John McKay's ability to survive '11 federally: monolithic Liberal support in the Muslim zones around Markham & Lawrence even in the worst of times. 

I was recently told that that heavily Muslim area along Lawrence is nicknamed Lawrence of Arabia (groan)

[DL]

Mitzi Hunter is running for Toronto mayor.  She must resign her seat in the Ontario legislature.  Risky move for her, if she doesn't win will she run again the by election to replace herself?  Or will Doug call a quick by election (maybe at the same time as Kitchener) so she can't?  ONDP have a shot in this Scarborough riding.

That mayors race is getting tight for progressives! Matlow, Bailoa, Hunter, Penalosa... Yes risky for her since she isn't a shoe-in to win at all given the other big names coming forward. Perhaps she will pull in the establishment OLP machine which might help her.

Makes sense to have Kitchener Centre and now Scarborough-Guildwood on the same day. But Guildwood is the second worst riding for the NDP last election, only Scar. Agincourt had the NDP polling lower. Not saying the NDP can't win or might not be competitive, it's just never been a top Scarborough target; if this were Scarborough Centre or Scarborough-Rouge Park I think it would be.

Penalosa is definitely progressive and one could argue that Matlow is as well. Bailao is NOT progressive at all. She her campaign is being managed by Nick Kouvalis who constantly tweets about his love for Donald Trump and for the Fords and she now works for a big developer. Hunter is not much of a progressive either (unless your definition of progressive is so broad that you consider John Tory to have been a progressive). In any case it seems Olivia Chow will run for mayor again and that will quickly suck all the oxygen out of the room on the left. If Penalosa insists on running he will quickly discover that 99% of the people who helped him and donating to him last year will drop him like a hot potato.

I suspect that if Mitzie Hunter is running she knows that winning is a long shot and that she has to burn her bridges at Queen's Park, but she had a pretty good job before politics and maybe she wanted an exit strategy from the prospect of four more years in a minivan party that has no official party status.  

I'm also not sure how much Hunter can rely on any Liberal "machine". I think we saw in last year's provincial election that the OLP machine is a Potemkin Village and it will also be split many different ways since Matlow, Bradford and Bailao are all also Liberals.

[adma]

I'm also not sure how much Hunter can rely on any Liberal "machine". I think we saw in last year's provincial election that the OLP machine is a Potemkin Village

Not to mention last week's provincial byelection.  "Hey!  You coulda Simon Hughes'd that loony-radical-left NDP candidate, and you didn't even come close!"

[adma]

And another thing about Scarborough-Guildwood: for all this Lib vs NDP chances talk, unlike Hamilton Centre, it *is* a seat where the Tories are viable in, and they'd *probably* look upon this as unfinished business from '18, especially.  (Indeed, back in the aughts a seat like this would have seemed more Tory-targetable than Scarborough Centre--though that's when the party's base was less Ford Nation ethnoburban and more Guildwood Village old-stock.)

[mileslunn]

Merrillee Fullerton is resigning https://twitter.com/DrFullertonMPP/status/1639335799136059411/photo/1 .  This is sort of a bellwether as narrowly went Liberal federally but PC provincially.  Was solid Tory a decade ago but like many suburban ridings has shifted left.  So this could be a good indicator if PC support holding up or falling.  And likewise also sign if OLP or NDP gaining.

[Hatman 🍁]

I doubt the NDP will really bother to contest Kanata, so it will be a real test to see if the Liberals can become relevant again. Of course, who will want to join the lifeboat?

I wonder if councillor Allan Hubley will run for the PCs. He's not very popular in his ward, only getting re-elected with 1/3 of the vote last year, so may want to make the jump to provincial politics.

The other local city councillors are fairly new, so may not want to make the jump to provincial politics. Then again, Jenna Sudds was in her first term when she ran federally. I don't think Sudds' successor is partisan, but the third city councillor in the area (Clarke Kelly) is a Liberal.

[DL]

Merrillee Fullerton is resigning https://twitter.com/DrFullertonMPP/status/1639335799136059411/photo/1 .  This is sort of a bellwether as narrowly went Liberal federally but PC provincially.  Was solid Tory a decade ago but like many suburban ridings has shifted left.  So this could be a good indicator if PC support holding up or falling.  And likewise also sign if OLP or NDP gaining.

Seems very suspicious that on a Friday afternoon while Biden is speaking she suddenly not only resigns from cabinet but also resigns here seat. Where there is smoke there is usually fire. maybe there was a story about to drop about her being a Beijing agent?

[adma]

Merrillee Fullerton is resigning https://twitter.com/DrFullertonMPP/status/1639335799136059411/photo/1 .  This is sort of a bellwether as narrowly went Liberal federally but PC provincially.  Was solid Tory a decade ago but like many suburban ridings has shifted left.  So this could be a good indicator if PC support holding up or falling.  And likewise also sign if OLP or NDP gaining.

A *very* tenuous and newfound-condition "sort of a bellwether" at best.  But technically, I'm not sure if this territory has been anything *but* Tory, for well over a century--of course, that's accounting for predecessor ridings that were much larger and more rural.  Yet these days, with growth and redistribution rural West Carleton is really the only truly "Tory-invulnerable" zone left; so yes, provincial history is no longer automatically-presumed destiny here.  Now, it's PC more generically because the Libs imploded and the NDP's still too quixotic an option--though in a Chandra Pasma era, who knows about the latter anymore.

I doubt the NDP will really bother to contest Kanata, so it will be a real test to see if the Liberals can become relevant again. Of course, who will want to join the lifeboat?

I'm actually not so sure about that re the NDP--after all, rather than reverting to 3rd place status quo a la Nepean or Carleton, they actually *kept* their 2nd place in K-C in '22; and if Melissa Coenraad were to stand again, it's hard not to imagine that she'd give it a serious run on Chandra Pasma coattails.  (And Kanata has a lively history of municipal Dipperdom most particularly through Alex Munter, even if it's scarcely translated to a provincial or federal level.)

[toaster]

Penalosa is definitely progressive and one could argue that Matlow is as well. Bailao is NOT progressive at all. She her campaign is being managed by Nick Kouvalis who constantly tweets about his love for Donald Trump and for the Fords and she now works for a big developer. Hunter is not much of a progressive either (unless your definition of progressive is so broad that you consider John Tory to have been a progressive). In any case it seems Olivia Chow will run for mayor again and that will quickly suck all the oxygen out of the room on the left. If Penalosa insists on running he will quickly discover that 99% of the people who helped him and donating to him last year will drop him like a hot potato.

The problem with politics and public engagement is precisely because people (like you) throw around these words progressive, left, right, based on pretty much everything BUT candidates' voting history, and positions on issues.  What issue makes someone "more progressive" than someone else?  What did Bailao vote against (or for) that makes her "not progressive at all" and Matlow and Penalosa "definitely progressive"?  Do some research on issues and decide, instead of just throwing this word around as a way to identify with (or against) a group.

[Hatman 🍁]

Merrillee Fullerton is resigning https://twitter.com/DrFullertonMPP/status/1639335799136059411/photo/1 .  This is sort of a bellwether as narrowly went Liberal federally but PC provincially.  Was solid Tory a decade ago but like many suburban ridings has shifted left.  So this could be a good indicator if PC support holding up or falling.  And likewise also sign if OLP or NDP gaining.

A *very* tenuous and newfound-condition "sort of a bellwether" at best.  But technically, I'm not sure if this territory has been anything *but* Tory, for well over a century--of course, that's accounting for predecessor ridings that were much larger and more rural.  Yet these days, with growth and redistribution rural West Carleton is really the only truly "Tory-invulnerable" zone left; so yes, provincial history is no longer automatically-presumed destiny here.  Now, it's PC more generically because the Libs imploded and the NDP's still too quixotic an option--though in a Chandra Pasma era, who knows about the latter anymore.

I doubt the NDP will really bother to contest Kanata, so it will be a real test to see if the Liberals can become relevant again. Of course, who will want to join the lifeboat?

I'm actually not so sure about that re the NDP--after all, rather than reverting to 3rd place status quo a la Nepean or Carleton, they actually *kept* their 2nd place in K-C in '22; and if Melissa Coenraad were to stand again, it's hard not to imagine that she'd give it a serious run on Chandra Pasma coattails.  (And Kanata has a lively history of municipal Dipperdom most particularly through Alex Munter, even if it's scarcely translated to a provincial or federal level.)

Alex Munter was quite popular in Kanata, but that only translated into strong municipal numbers, and Peggy Feltmate winning his seat in 2003 on his coattails. Her chosen successor did not win in 2010 though, and the ward has been stuck with the dud that is Allan Hubley ever since.  Anyway, Munter was popular not because he was a progressive, but because he was the Kanata's wonderkid of the late 1980s, forming a local newspaper at the age of 14, and winning a prestigious award from Brian Mulroney.

Anyway, given recent municipal and provincial numbers, I'd say the NDP's ceiling here is around 30%. Not enough to make it competitive, but might make things interesting in a 3-way race. But the Tories would win in a tight 3-way. The Tory floor is about 35%, so that doesn't leave any room for the Liberals, unless the Greens don't run.

[DL]

FWIW, I think Kanata-Carlton may have been the Ontario seat whose popular vote most closely matched the province-wide popular vote. It was PCs 43% and NDP and Liberals 24% each. and province wide the vote was PCs 41% and NDP and Liberals 24% each.

[adma]

I doubt the NDP will really bother to contest Kanata, so it will be a real test to see if the Liberals can become relevant again. Of course, who will want to join the lifeboat?

I'm actually not so sure about that re the NDP--after all, rather than reverting to 3rd place status quo a la Nepean or Carleton, they actually *kept* their 2nd place in K-C in '22; and if Melissa Coenraad were to stand again, it's hard not to imagine that she'd give it a serious run on Chandra Pasma coattails.  (And Kanata has a lively history of municipal Dipperdom most particularly through Alex Munter, even if it's scarcely translated to a provincial or federal level.)

Alex Munter was quite popular in Kanata, but that only translated into strong municipal numbers, and Peggy Feltmate winning his seat in 2003 on his coattails. Her chosen successor did not win in 2010 though, and the ward has been stuck with the dud that is Allan Hubley ever since.  Anyway, Munter was popular not because he was a progressive, but because he was the Kanata's wonderkid of the late 1980s, forming a local newspaper at the age of 14, and winning a prestigious award from Brian Mulroney.

Anyway, given recent municipal and provincial numbers, I'd say the NDP's ceiling here is around 30%. Not enough to make it competitive, but might make things interesting in a 3-way race. But the Tories would win in a tight 3-way. The Tory floor is about 35%, so that doesn't leave any room for the Liberals, unless the Greens don't run.

As much as one might interpret an apparent NDP ceiling here, two consecutive 2nd places and 20something shares certainly isn't a foundation for not bothering to really contest Kanata--even if it winds up handing the seat to the Tories on a silver platter.  Maybe if you were speaking of a *federal* byelection, you'd be on the right track; but provincially, it'd be only if the Libs offered a clear, strategically superior candidate (a la Jeff Lehman in Barrie last year)

[adma]

Penalosa is definitely progressive and one could argue that Matlow is as well. Bailao is NOT progressive at all. She her campaign is being managed by Nick Kouvalis who constantly tweets about his love for Donald Trump and for the Fords and she now works for a big developer. Hunter is not much of a progressive either (unless your definition of progressive is so broad that you consider John Tory to have been a progressive). In any case it seems Olivia Chow will run for mayor again and that will quickly suck all the oxygen out of the room on the left. If Penalosa insists on running he will quickly discover that 99% of the people who helped him and donating to him last year will drop him like a hot potato.

The problem with politics and public engagement is precisely because people (like you) throw around these words progressive, left, right, based on pretty much everything BUT candidates' voting history, and positions on issues.  What issue makes someone "more progressive" than someone else?  What did Bailao vote against (or for) that makes her "not progressive at all" and Matlow and Penalosa "definitely progressive"?  Do some research on issues and decide, instead of just throwing this word around as a way to identify with (or against) a group.

Frankly, it depends on where, or how firmly, one sets the "progressive vs non-progressive" bar--and a lot of, shall we say, "Liberal types" like to present themselves as a "palatable progressive" option, because they know how the opposite of "progressive" is "regressive" or "conservative", which isn't all that desirable a place to be.  And they they can get *really* thin-skinned when the more explicitly progressive-aligned try to call them out as "non-progressive".

But put it this way: notwithstanding Chris Moise's endorsement, Bailao tends to be bunched up with Bradford in that safe, straddly middle spectrum.  And that she might have a progressive-ish gloss might be through the accidental-ish circumstance of her having represented the most naturally "progressive" ward in the city (and her replacement on Council, Alejandra Bravo, might be argued as more reflective of said ward's present-day "natural electoral condition").  But such people know that barring a "David Miller coalition", there's a certain ceiling to explicitly "progressive" support in Toronto, not unlike what's thwarted candidates from the left in places like Ottawa and Winnipeg.  Which is why they're safe-straddly-middle in the first place--and why they can opportunistically pivot to "progressive alternative" mode if the primary opposition winds up being Mark Saunders, much like George Smitherman was relative to Rob Ford in '10.

Incidentally, re Olivia Chow's failed '14 campaign: one factor I haven't seen raised re her failure was that her ability to "articulate" was hampered by a bout with facial paralysis, which made some people wonder whether she was trotted out to run before she was really ready to do so...

[toaster]

Penalosa is definitely progressive and one could argue that Matlow is as well. Bailao is NOT progressive at all. She her campaign is being managed by Nick Kouvalis who constantly tweets about his love for Donald Trump and for the Fords and she now works for a big developer. Hunter is not much of a progressive either (unless your definition of progressive is so broad that you consider John Tory to have been a progressive). In any case it seems Olivia Chow will run for mayor again and that will quickly suck all the oxygen out of the room on the left. If Penalosa insists on running he will quickly discover that 99% of the people who helped him and donating to him last year will drop him like a hot potato.

The problem with politics and public engagement is precisely because people (like you) throw around these words progressive, left, right, based on pretty much everything BUT candidates' voting history, and positions on issues.  What issue makes someone "more progressive" than someone else?  What did Bailao vote against (or for) that makes her "not progressive at all" and Matlow and Penalosa "definitely progressive"?  Do some research on issues and decide, instead of just throwing this word around as a way to identify with (or against) a group.

Frankly, it depends on where, or how firmly, one sets the "progressive vs non-progressive" bar--and a lot of, shall we say, "Liberal types" like to present themselves as a "palatable progressive" option, because they know how the opposite of "progressive" is "regressive" or "conservative", which isn't all that desirable a place to be.  And they they can get *really* thin-skinned when the more explicitly progressive-aligned try to call them out as "non-progressive".

But put it this way: notwithstanding Chris Moise's endorsement, Bailao tends to be bunched up with Bradford in that safe, straddly middle spectrum.  And that she might have a progressive-ish gloss might be through the accidental-ish circumstance of her having represented the most naturally "progressive" ward in the city (and her replacement on Council, Alejandra Bravo, might be argued as more reflective of said ward's present-day "natural electoral condition").  But such people know that barring a "David Miller coalition", there's a certain ceiling to explicitly "progressive" support in Toronto, not unlike what's thwarted candidates from the left in places like Ottawa and Winnipeg.  Which is why they're safe-straddly-middle in the first place--and why they can opportunistically pivot to "progressive alternative" mode if the primary opposition winds up being Mark Saunders, much like George Smitherman was relative to Rob Ford in '10.

Incidentally, re Olivia Chow's failed '14 campaign: one factor I haven't seen raised re her failure was that her ability to "articulate" was hampered by a bout with facial paralysis, which made some people wonder whether she was trotted out to run before she was really ready to do so...

So again, not a single position or voting record of any of these candidates is brought up to classify these people.  Most people don't care about these terms.  And if you do, please bring up a voting record to classify these people. Being "bunched up with these people" tells me nothing about how she has voted to make you perceive Bailao as right wing.  People voted for a candidate based on whether or not they heard if someone is progressive (or not) and then vote accordingly, without looking at voting record, or reading a candidate's platform, is a big problem with our electoral system.

[mileslunn]

Sad news, Derek Meyers of Regina-Walsh Acres has died https://regina.ctvnews.ca/sask-mla-derek-meyers-dies-following-battle-with-cancer-1.6332612 so at some point later a by-election there.  Way too young as only 45

[DL]

Sad news, Derek Meyers of Regina-Walsh Acres has died https://regina.ctvnews.ca/sask-mla-derek-meyers-dies-following-battle-with-cancer-1.6332612 so at some point later a by-election there.  Way too young as only 45

That is sad news. BTW: There is also already a vacancy in Regina-Coronation Park due to a resignation so between that and the passing of Meyers, sometime in the next few months Moe will have to call two byelections in very marginal Regina seats that the Sask Party won quite narrowly over the NDP.

[adma]

So again, not a single position or voting record of any of these candidates is brought up to classify these people.  Most people don't care about these terms.  And if you do, please bring up a voting record to classify these people. Being "bunched up with these people" tells me nothing about how she has voted to make you perceive Bailao as right wing.  People voted for a candidate based on whether or not they heard if someone is progressive (or not) and then vote accordingly, without looking at voting record, or reading a candidate's platform, is a big problem with our electoral system.

Note what I highlighted--they contradict one another, no?

Also note that I'm not the one classifying Bailao as "right wing"; I used, instead, "safe, straddly middle".  Plus, I know it's a big problem with our electoral system, but "it is what it is", and it's why party labels and affiliations, whether explicit or veiled, exist and define voting decisions.

Bailao is, fundamentally, a don't-shake-the-apple-cart Liberal.  As opposed to somebody NDP-affiliated or more broadly NDP-endorsed or "Matlow Liberals" who *are* prone to shaking the apple cart.  As far as being "right wing" goes: now, on a sliding scale, yes, she might indeed be closer to "NDP progressivism" than Mark Saunders conservativism--and the Chris Moise endorsement as well as her representation of Davenport bears that likelihood out--and she'd be to the left of John Tory as well, Kouvalis or no Kouvalis.  But whether she's in your particular comfort zone is up to you, and to the voter, to decide.

Sorry to be excessively diagrammatic; but I'm just being an observational bystander.  I'm not trying to convince *you* why you should or shouldn't vote for so-and-so, or to explain in detail the voting-record whys-and-wherefores; because that fine-toothed nitty-gritty is better handled elsewhere...