Kentucky (PPP): Trump +16

[Pollster]

Good news McGrath and Generic D is behind only by 47 to 44 margin, Senate race isnt Safe R

McGraths Political Career is OVER simply by running against McConnell. The last 3 Democratic Challengers who challenged Mitch never ran for Office after that.

Alison Lundergan Grimes ran for office and won a year later.

[Pollster]

Cross-posted from the Senate race thread:

Some phenomenal regional data here:

-Trump approval in KY-06 is 39/55, McConnell is 30/58. Biden leads here 52/40, and Generic Dem leads 54/36. We could definitely see Josh Hicks run a more competitive race than it currently appears to be.

-Trump/McGrath Generic Dem voters appear to be in KY-04, where Trump leads 53/40 but McConnell is tied 44/44. More specifically, in the Cincinnati media market (mostly Kenton/Boone/Campbell, plus a few rurals) Trump leads 51/40, while McConnell leads 45/42. Given Massie's notoriety, this district could be a sleeper for Dems on a very, very good night.

-The Lexington media market appears, as usual, to be a bellwether for the state. Trump leads here 54/40, McConnell 48/43. McGrath's high name recognition in the media market from 2018 is likely an early boon for her here.

[Pollster]

Cross-posted from the Senate race thread:

Some phenomenal regional data here:

-Trump approval in KY-06 is 39/55, McConnell is 30/58. Biden leads here 52/40, and Generic Dem leads 54/36. We could definitely see Josh Hicks run a more competitive race than it currently appears to be.

I just realized, if Biden’s really up by 12 in KY-06, that’s about how much Beshear beat Bevin by last year in the district. Which means Biden would pretty much have to be pulling numbers similar to the 65-35 Bevin got blown out by in Fayette County. That would be a pretty massive swing for a county that Romney almost won in 2012. Just goes to show how toxic Trump has been to educated whites in (sub)urban areas. Alternatively (or perhaps additionally), Trump has lost a lot of support in the more rural areas of the district, which he won in 2016. Meaning even a place like Woodford County could flip possibly.

Either way, it’s not a great sign for Trump. If he’s either getting clobbered in the suburbs, underperforming in rural areas, or both, it does not bode well for him nationwide. If even a state like Kentucky trends away from him to a significant degree he’s probably screwed.

Certainly. Also very important to remember that even lost races like KY-06 in 2018 have ramifications in the future if they are well ran - the organization and turnout infrastructure that McGrath built was a solid foundation for Beshear to build on, and appears to still be in place for both Biden and McGrath again in 2020. Ditto on the infrastructure Beshear appears to have built in KY-04.