Kentucky (PPP): Trump +16

[wbrocks67]

Trump 55
Biden 39

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/KentuckyResultsMay2020.pdf

Trump overall job approval is only 53/41 and virus approval is 52/42.

Trump won KY by 30% in 2016.

[pppolitics]

Trump 55
Biden 39

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/KentuckyResultsMay2020.pdf

Trump overall job approval is only 53/41 and virus approval is 52/42.

Trump won KY by 30% in 2016.

I didn't realized that the virus is so popular in Kentucky.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Biden is probably going to hit 40% in Kenton and Campbell.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good news McGrath and Generic D is behind only by 47 to 44 margin, Senate race isnt Safe R

[2016]

Good news McGrath and Generic D is behind only by 47 to 44 margin, Senate race isnt Safe R

McGraths Political Career is OVER simply by running against McConnell. The last 3 Democratic Challengers who challenged Mitch never ran for Office after that.

[Pollster]

Good news McGrath and Generic D is behind only by 47 to 44 margin, Senate race isnt Safe R

McGraths Political Career is OVER simply by running against McConnell. The last 3 Democratic Challengers who challenged Mitch never ran for Office after that.

Alison Lundergan Grimes ran for office and won a year later.

[Pollster]

Cross-posted from the Senate race thread:

Some phenomenal regional data here:

-Trump approval in KY-06 is 39/55, McConnell is 30/58. Biden leads here 52/40, and Generic Dem leads 54/36. We could definitely see Josh Hicks run a more competitive race than it currently appears to be.

-Trump/McGrath Generic Dem voters appear to be in KY-04, where Trump leads 53/40 but McConnell is tied 44/44. More specifically, in the Cincinnati media market (mostly Kenton/Boone/Campbell, plus a few rurals) Trump leads 51/40, while McConnell leads 45/42. Given Massie's notoriety, this district could be a sleeper for Dems on a very, very good night.

-The Lexington media market appears, as usual, to be a bellwether for the state. Trump leads here 54/40, McConnell 48/43. McGrath's high name recognition in the media market from 2018 is likely an early boon for her here.

[Alben Barkley]

Biden is probably going to hit 40% in Kenton and Campbell.

Wouldn’t be surprised. Also wouldn’t surprised if he hits 60 in Jefferson and maybe even Fayette, or at least high 50s. Franklin is very likely to flip too.

Would not even be stunned if Biden does about as well as Obama did in ‘08 if it turns out to be a good year for him. Meaning he hits around 40% statewide or slightly better. These numbers already suggest that’s possible.

[Alben Barkley]

Cross-posted from the Senate race thread:

Some phenomenal regional data here:

-Trump approval in KY-06 is 39/55, McConnell is 30/58. Biden leads here 52/40, and Generic Dem leads 54/36. We could definitely see Josh Hicks run a more competitive race than it currently appears to be.

I just realized, if Biden’s really up by 12 in KY-06, that’s about how much Beshear beat Bevin by last year in the district. Which means Biden would pretty much have to be pulling numbers similar to the 65-35 Bevin got blown out by in Fayette County. That would be a pretty massive swing for a county that Romney almost won in 2012. Just goes to show how toxic Trump has been to educated whites in (sub)urban areas. Alternatively (or perhaps additionally), Trump has lost a lot of support in the more rural areas of the district, which he won in 2016. Meaning even a place like Woodford County could flip possibly.

Either way, it’s not a great sign for Trump. If he’s either getting clobbered in the suburbs, underperforming in rural areas, or both, it does not bode well for him nationwide. If even a state like Kentucky trends away from him to a significant degree he’s probably screwed.

[Pollster]

Cross-posted from the Senate race thread:

Some phenomenal regional data here:

-Trump approval in KY-06 is 39/55, McConnell is 30/58. Biden leads here 52/40, and Generic Dem leads 54/36. We could definitely see Josh Hicks run a more competitive race than it currently appears to be.

I just realized, if Biden’s really up by 12 in KY-06, that’s about how much Beshear beat Bevin by last year in the district. Which means Biden would pretty much have to be pulling numbers similar to the 65-35 Bevin got blown out by in Fayette County. That would be a pretty massive swing for a county that Romney almost won in 2012. Just goes to show how toxic Trump has been to educated whites in (sub)urban areas. Alternatively (or perhaps additionally), Trump has lost a lot of support in the more rural areas of the district, which he won in 2016. Meaning even a place like Woodford County could flip possibly.

Either way, it’s not a great sign for Trump. If he’s either getting clobbered in the suburbs, underperforming in rural areas, or both, it does not bode well for him nationwide. If even a state like Kentucky trends away from him to a significant degree he’s probably screwed.

Certainly. Also very important to remember that even lost races like KY-06 in 2018 have ramifications in the future if they are well ran - the organization and turnout infrastructure that McGrath built was a solid foundation for Beshear to build on, and appears to still be in place for both Biden and McGrath again in 2020. Ditto on the infrastructure Beshear appears to have built in KY-04.

[Ferguson97]

Being down to +16 in a state you were +30 in is definitely good for your re-election prospects. No need to worry at all.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Being down to +16 in a state you were +30 in is definitely good for your re-election prospects. No need to worry at all.

It's not great, but it's not appalling IMO. In safe states, polling tends to underestimate the dominant party because the undecideds break favourably towards it.

[Reaganfan]

Being down to +16 in a state you were +30 in is definitely good for your re-election prospects. No need to worry at all.

It's not great, but it's not appalling IMO. In safe states, polling tends to underestimate the dominant party because the undecideds break favourably towards it.

Yeah, remember Mike Braun in Indiana in 2018. Tied? +3? Down by 2? He ended up blowing it out.

[soundchaser]

Yeah, remember Mike Braun in Indiana in 2018. Tied? +3? Down by 2? He ended up blowing it out.

He won by less than 6 points, which isn’t exactly a blowout. If you add anywhere between 3 and 6 points to this poll for Trump, it still looks less-than-great.

[DaleCooper]

Being down to +16 in a state you were +30 in is definitely good for your re-election prospects. No need to worry at all.

It's not great, but it's not appalling IMO. In safe states, polling tends to underestimate the dominant party because the undecideds break favourably towards it.

Do they really underestimate by 50% though? I know this is just one poll and we're unlikely to get extensive polling from now till election day in Kentucky, but I would expect Trump, if he were to win by similar margins in this state to 2016, to be up by at least the low to mid 20s right now. Biden performing 7 points better than Clinton without his (probably small) share of the undecideds is bad news for Trump too.

[MT Treasurer]

It’s easy to ignore the fact that this is a President who can’t afford even minimal defections, something which seems to be completely lost on many people here—even Trump +25 in KY would probably indicate a narrow Biden win nationally, +16 is just landslide territory and icing on the cake. Also, we’ve literally reached a point where even if we foolishly and arbitrarily add 3 to 5 points for Trump to every single poll (including in battleground states like GA and TX, where polling isn’t exactly known for understating Republican support), it wouldn’t even be enough for him to just barely eke out another win with the right combination of states. Of course this entire practice also conveniently ignores that (1) national polling was comparatively accurate in 2016 and that the average of all the national polls has been devastating for Trump this year (but honestly it’s been that way since 2017), and that (2) certain polling biases are unlikely to continue indefinitely or at least not to the same degree.

[Nyvin]

Biden getting 39% in Kentucky would even be better than Obama 2012, and way better than Clinton's 33%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump fumbled the ball on this Pandemic and screwed up, his wife Elaine Chao, whom works with Trump and is Chinese, and Trump stereotypes Chinese people and Covid 19, has to lead or come close in a Rassy poll. Trump since Amash has dropped out cannot lead in it and losing by five. Even McConnell can lose in this 2008 environment

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Kentucky President by Public Policy Polling on 2020-05-15

Summary: D: 39%, R: 55%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[The Mikado]

Being down to +16 in a state you were +30 in is definitely good for your re-election prospects. No need to worry at all.

It's not great, but it's not appalling IMO. In safe states, polling tends to underestimate the dominant party because the undecideds break favourably towards it.

Sure, but this poll was 55-39. Let's say 3rd party in KY is 1% (not a very third party friendly state) and all of the other undecideds go Trump. 60-39 or a 21 point win in KY would be a pretty horrifying swing for Trump. If KY swung 9 points away from him, what going on across the river in Ohio?

Trump had really better hope this poll is horribly overestimating Biden, because if Biden's at 39 in KY, he's a HUGE bounce over Clinton in this sort of place.

[Annatar]

These polls in deep red and blue states always understate margins, final KY poll done Oct 25-30 had Trump leading Clinton 54-37, similar to this poll, 55-39, and Trump won not by 17% but 30%.

http://wkussrc.blogspot.com/2016/11/trump-paul-lead-in-commonwealth-with.html

Clinton didn't even hit the 37% she had in this poll, she got 33%.

People are forgetting in how many deep red states, Trump was doing 10-15% worse than Romney just a month before the election in the polls only to outperform Romney, polls failed really badly in red states in 2016, a Monmouth poll done on Oct 11-13 had Trump leading Clinton by only 4%, this was when the national lead for Clinton was only 6% so Indiana was trending D relative to 2012 if you took the poll at face value, the final Monmouth poll done a week before the election was 8% off in its final margin.

[Alben Barkley]

Being down to +16 in a state you were +30 in is definitely good for your re-election prospects. No need to worry at all.

It's not great, but it's not appalling IMO. In safe states, polling tends to underestimate the dominant party because the undecideds break favourably towards it.

There ain't that many undecideds in this poll, though. About as many as there were third party voters in 2016, in fact. And Trump's overall approval rating here, though slightly better than Biden's numbers (which are already significantly better than Hillary's), ain't great either. So it doesn't look like he has a whole lot of room to grow.

All I can say is that if Woodford County (home of Versailles, which here in Kentucky we call Ver-SALES) flips, I will drink so much bourbon it would be fatal to any non-Kentuckian.

[woodley park]

It’s easy to ignore the fact that this is a President who can’t afford even minimal defections, something which seems to be completely lost on many people here—even Trump +25 in KY would probably indicate a narrow Biden win nationally, +16 is just landslide territory and icing on the cake. Also, we’ve literally reached a point where even if we foolishly and arbitrarily add 3 to 5 points for Trump to every single poll (including in battleground states like GA and TX, where polling isn’t exactly known for understating Republican support), it wouldn’t even be enough for him to just barely eke out another win with the right combination of states. Of course this entire practice also conveniently ignores that (1) national polling was comparatively accurate in 2016 and that the average of all the national polls has been devastating for Trump this year (but honestly it’s been that way since 2017), and that (2) certain polling biases are unlikely to continue indefinitely or at least not to the same degree.

Exactly. Its almost as if the majority of Americans expected Trump to lose, were angrily surprised, and have only gotten angrier since. And Trump's intentionally done everything possible to make sure that they stayed angry.