EP elections 2014

[Tender Branson]

The Washington Post has an article about the FPÖ:

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[freek]

Expected result for the Netherlands by Peil.nl/Maurice de Hond (based on latest poll for the Second Chamber):



'kleine kans' = small chance, 'grote kans' = large chance.

[republicanbayer]

I doubt that the AfD, DPP and PS will join the ECR in its current form since the turkish AKP is a member of the AECR.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

I doubt that the AfD, DPP and PS will join the ECR in its current form since the turkish AKP is a member of the AECR.

AfD do not need to become member of AECR, to be a member of ECR group.
The whole situation is rather unclear until now. Today, the SPIEGEL reports that the talks between AfD and the Tory MEP went well, but that Cameron was forced by Merkel to promise not to do so.
So, nothing really new.

[justfollowingtheelections]

New poll from Greece (an exit poll from the municipal/periphery elections):

SYRIZA 27.4
ND 22.7
Golden Dawn 8.7
Potami 8.1
KKE 6.4
Elia 6.2
ANEL 4
DIMAR 1.4
Others 7.3
Undecided 7.8

And the exit polls for the Attica periphery:


and the Athens mayoral race:


The SYRIZA candidates as I mentioned in the predictions thread exceeded expectations while the ND candidates failed miserably.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Various recent polls of the UK...

YouGov/Sunday Times: Labour 27, UKIP 26, Con 23, LDem 9, Greens 9
ICM/Sunday Telegraph: Labour 29, Con 26, UKIP 25, LDem 7, Greens ?
ComRes/Sunday Mirror/Independent on Sunday: UKIP 35, Labour 24, Con 20, Greens 7, LDem 6
YouGov/The Sun: Labour 28, UKIP 25, Con 22, LDem 10, Greens 10

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Faymann (SPÖ) set a state reception today for Conchita (who won the Song Contest), probably to get his fair share of publicity ahead of the election and some coattails from her victory ...





It certainly helps if you take pictures with someone who has a 80% favorable rating now ...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

While it could certainly be argued that the Eurovision Song Contest is of more importance than the European Elections, general discussion of it and of the specific controversies of this year should be discussed in the off topic board, not here.

[Tender Branson]

While it could certainly be argued that the Eurovision Song Contest is of more importance than the European Elections, general discussion of it and of the specific controversies of this year should be discussed in the off topic board, not here.

But my post can stay here, right ?

(It's related to the election, with Faymann thinking of "getting some final boost") ...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's a 'lol politician cosying up to popular celebrity, hahaha' post, and they're fine.

[EPG]

An example of how Ireland is different: at least 3 out of 4 ALDE candidates are absolutely pro-life, even (explicitly or tacitly) when the life of the mother is at risk.

[Cassius]

An example of how Ireland is different: at least 3 out of 4 ALDE candidates are absolutely pro-life, even (explicitly or tacitly) when the life of the mother is at risk.

Yes well, Fianna Fail's main reason for being in ALDE is basically that there's no room at the inn in the EPP. I mean, it wouldn't really work having both FF and FG in the same European parliamentary grouping (even if these are irrelevant).

[Tender Branson]

I decided to do some election poster-tagging and flyering for "Europa Anders" ("A different Europe") this week, mostly in my district.

In Saalfelden and Zell am See (which in EP elections are SPÖ and former Martin strongholds), I will put a ton of "Social Democrats vote differently" posters up.

It's probably a bit too late already and it won't influence many people, but maybe some late-deciders.

EA is the Austrian leftist Tsipras affiliate.

 

 

They currently are at 2-3% in the polls, so they need every help they can get ...

(Greens and NEOS have their 2 seats safely anyway)

[sirius3100]

(Greens and NEOS have their 2 seats safely anyway)

In some polls NEOS isn't far away from a third seat. So EA getting one seat may hurt NEOS.

[Zanas]

(Greens and NEOS have their 2 seats safely anyway)

In some polls NEOS isn't far away from a third seat. So EA getting one seat may hurt NEOS.

Just lately, Neos has been dropping quite a bit and are nowhere near this third seat anymore.

[Tender Branson]

(Greens and NEOS have their 2 seats safely anyway)

In some polls NEOS isn't far away from a third seat. So EA getting one seat may hurt NEOS.

Good, if that would happen.

The problem with EA (and any small party) is that they don't have a lot of cash to finance their campaign, like the big parties have (SPÖ, ÖVP, FPÖ, Greens, NEOS all spend between 2-5 Mio. € each on this election, while EA only has 100.000€ alltogether). Remember that even NEOS has a wealthy millionaire backer to finance their campaigns.

So, they have to rely much more on volunteers to put up posters, give away flyers etc.

Besides, the ORF also favours the big parties in their formats: For example, their so-called "Elephant Debate" on Thursday night during primetime will only include SPÖ, ÖVP, FPÖ, Greens and NEOS), while minor parties only get to debate on Sunday at 11am (where nobody watches and is eating dinner).

Therefore EA will have problems getting anywhere near the 4% threshold, not to mention that they will need about 4.7%-5.3% to actually get a seat in the EP, due to our 18 seats and the D'Hondt method.

[sirius3100]

(Greens and NEOS have their 2 seats safely anyway)

In some polls NEOS isn't far away from a third seat. So EA getting one seat may hurt NEOS.

Just lately, Neos has been dropping quite a bit and are nowhere near this third seat anymore.

I know. That's why I wrote "in some polls". The sample sizes in polls are way to low to estimate the numbers to more than 1-2% accuracy anway. So any apparent small short term trends may just be statistical fluctuations.
NEOS also is a pretty new party and never before run at the EU elections, so I'm not sure if the pollsters already know how to interpret the raw data they got from the polling.

[Tender Branson]

Using the current polls, the D'Hondt calculator shows that ÖVP and SPÖ would get 5 seats each, FPÖ 4 and Greens and NEOS 2 each.

If either NEOS or Greens drop to around 10% or lower, their 2nd seat is in danger - especially if EA manages to get to 4.7% or more.

If NEOS and Greens remain at around 12-13% and EA still manages 4.7% or more, EA would likely get their seat from whoever comes in 2nd in the election (so, either ÖVP or SPÖ).

[Diouf]

Danish poll by Megafon for TV2 and Politiken

Unified Patent Court Referendum
65.4 % yes
34.6 % no

The no-side will probably increase further, but it looks like it won't be really close.

Liberals 24.2 % 3 seats
DF 21.5 % 3 
Social Democrats 21.1 % 3
People's Movement against the EU 9.4 % 1
Social Liberals 7.5 % 1
SF 6.2 % 1
Conservatives 6.1 % 1
Liberal Alliance 2.6 % 0

A quite low result for DF compared to the average of 27 %. The polls have tended towards all of the three small parties in the electoral alliances, Social Liberals, SF, and Conservatives, getting a seat but it's still by a very narrow margin.

The expected turnout is 56 %. In 2009, it was 59.5 %, but it was higher due to the referendum on the royal succession rules. Between 1979 and 2004, the turnout was between 46.2 % and 52.9 %.

[Jens]

N-VA will not join ECR if True Finns and DF are included. One of their main policy points is that they disassociate themselves with these groups entirely.

N-VA have not been officially kicked out of the greens yet. Just the head of lists of the two Green parties in Belgium have both said that they would find it ''uncomfortable'' having the N-VA in the same grouping.

I think the N-VA are waiting to see what CiU do. They are almost like for like in every aspect.

From what I hear from the Danish EGP-people, the thing is that the current N-VA MEP is quite moderate, but that is not the case with the comming MEP's - so N-VA politically will also distance itself from Greens-EFA

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10839448/My-rivals-should-be-hanged-for-treason-says-Ukip-candidate.html

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in case anyone here was considering voting for these people.

[Cassius]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10839448/My-rivals-should-be-hanged-for-treason-says-Ukip-candidate.html

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in case anyone here was considering voting for these people.

So, the man has a few drinks and goes on a big paranoid, hyperbolic, ultra-nationalist, anti-masonic, anti-Papist rant... that's what UKIP is all about. So, despite what one (ok, maybe a couple of dozen) candidate said, I'm still voting for them...

[Tender Branson]

I decided to do some election poster-tagging and flyering for "Europa Anders" ("A different Europe") this week, mostly in my district.

In Saalfelden and Zell am See (which in EP elections are SPÖ and former Martin strongholds), I will put a ton of "Social Democrats vote differently" posters up.

It's probably a bit too late already and it won't influence many people, but maybe some late-deciders.

EA is the Austrian leftist Tsipras affiliate.

 

 

They currently are at 2-3% in the polls, so they need every help they can get ...

(Greens and NEOS have their 2 seats safely anyway)

...

Got about 100 of these posters today. Time to put them up, because it's late anyway already.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

YouGov/The Scum

Labour 28, UKIP 24, Con 22, Green 12, LDem 10, Nat 3, BNP 1

[YL]

YouGov/The Scum

Labour 28, UKIP 24, Con 22, Green 12, LDem 10, Nat 3, BNP 1

There now seems to be another YouGov poll with Lab 27 UKIP 27 Con 23 LD 10 Green 8.  Also (get those pinches of salt ready):

Survation: UKIP 32 Lab 27 Con 23 LD 9 Green 4
Opinium: UKIP 31 Lab 29 Con 20 LD 5 (!) Green 5
TNS: UKIP 31 Lab 28 Con 21 LD 7