2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Tekken_Guy]

Hmm: https://twitter.com/BecauseMiami/status/1695051876926959860

Both are incredibly popular - Cava probably just runs for Gimenez's open seat instead.

She’s a Democrat so it’ll be tough for her to win that seat. Ana Maria Rodriguez would be the favorite if she were to run.

[wbrocks67]

Emerson GCB R+1, 43-42

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I said Emerson is Hogwash, they have Slotkin leading by 6 pts over Mejer and haven't polled PA and WI

Let me tell you Baldwin def Clarke 51/47
Slotkin def Mejer or Craig 51/47
Casey def McCormick 54/46

That's 303 and Emerson has Slotkin up 6 pts

Then we have Brown on Facebook up 45/44
Ehr up 46/44
Tester was up 5 on Rosendale.

That's 51/49 S
Gallego 51/47 over Lake or 46/42

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's posted I posted it already Slotkin 42/36 over Mejer and 45/38 over James Craig it's a 303 map, by EMERSON AND THEY SAY TRUMP IS LEADING BY  10lies

Pollsters like to lie about how well Trump is doing only to make it seem competetive in an R Primary bump this is the same Trump that lost already in 2020

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Economist GCB tied, 42-42

[Gracile]

Brad Pfaff, the 2022 WI-03 Democratic candidate, is not planning on running for the seat next year:

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/08/30/2-top-western-wisconsin-democrats-wont-run-to-challenge-van-orden/70708957007/

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/maxpcohen/status/1699361808975355945?s=20

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ByChrisBrennan/status/1699397336126873706

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Economist GCB D+1, 43-42

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/ze05ewgo9y/econTabReport.pdf

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1699905664271913200

If the Georgia map is redrawn to make GA-6 (my current district) more favorable to Democrats, I think Richardson would be a good candidate, although it's possible Lucy McBath might move back to the 6th in that scenario, in which case McBath would be the strong favorite to be the nominee.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kunce is tied with Hawley we have 3 Vets that's gonna be in S Slotkin, Gallego and Kunce

[Person Man]

It’s insane how these races seem to be Lean D and the presidency is Lean R.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It’s insane how these races seem to be Lean D and the presidency is Lean R.

There's certainly no consensus that the presidency is Lean R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It’s insane how these races seem to be Lean D and the presidency is Lean R.

Lol, do you Doom all the time it's called voting not Poll, it's a 303/225 D map

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users sees polls tighting from a 415 Landslide to a 303 map they think Trump is gonna win it doesn't work that way because we gotta vote

[Person Man]

It’s insane how these races seem to be Lean D and the presidency is Lean R.

There's certainly no consensus that the presidency is Lean R.

Trump is doing pretty well right now though I don’t expect it to last.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It’s insane how these races seem to be Lean D and the presidency is Lean R.

There's certainly no consensus that the presidency is Lean R.

Trump is doing pretty well right now though I don’t expect it to last.

Polls aren't actual votes and you know that, some people think polls are actual votes we already voted out Trump

[Gracile]

Inside Elections released initial ratings for three competitive OH districts with the news that the congressional map will stay in place - OH-01 (Lean D), OH-09 (Lean D), and OH-13 (Tilt D). This article gives a rundown of the state of play in each district:

https://www.insideelections.com/news/article/ohio-house-democrats-defend-three-battleground-seats

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It’s insane how these races seem to be Lean D and the presidency is Lean R.

This is not a surprise, as Biden is a lot less popular than the generic Democrat. As it becomes clear that Biden will lose by October, undecided voters will start breaking towards Democrat downballot candidates to put a check on Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It’s insane how these races seem to be Lean D and the presidency is Lean R.

This is not a surprise, as Biden is a lot less popular than the generic Democrat. As it becomes clear that Biden will lose by October, undecided voters will start breaking towards Democrat downballot candidates to put a check on Trump.

Lol You Gov, Cygnal Harris X have Biden or Ds leading on GCB 52/48 he won 50/45 last time and he is leading DeSantis by 5 if he is leading DeSantis by 5 hr is leading Trump by 5 mot 2someone whom said Biden is gonna lose MN and Klobuchar is gonna help Biden win by 55/45, the unemployment rate is 4% the same 5% as Bush W got Reelection in 2004, oh and is the same Biden that beat Trump in both debates in 2020 and ran with Obama in 2008/12 and beat Palin and Ryan in debate


Polls aren't actual votes and our VBM is far superior than Rs that's why we won 20, it's stl VBM something Redban doesn't realize


Biden with Slotkin, Casey and Baldwin will easily carry 3 states 50/45 he won 50/45 last time you know that CNN poll is bogus it has Haley up 6 and Biden will crush her

[Progressive Pessimist]

It’s insane how these races seem to be Lean D and the presidency is Lean R.

This is not a surprise, as Biden is a lot less popular than the generic Democrat. As it becomes clear that Biden will lose by October, undecided voters will start breaking towards Democrat downballot candidates to put a check on Trump.

Voters have been that obtuse before. I mean, it's such dumb logic-why vote for someone you want to be "checked?" But I think it's a bit different now that Trump has already served as President and continues to be a divisive presence. His entire toxic persona somehow being deemphasized because Biden is unpopular is just so absurd to me.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Republicans got some good news in OH-13 where they have unexpectedly struggled a bit with recruitment thus far.  State Senator Kristina Roegner, who almost certainly would’ve cleared the field, she is an extremely right-wing under-performer who made her name by being aggressively anti-union and closely tying herself to Kasich’s failed effort to ban collective bargaining.  She’s likely gonna cost Republicans her State Senate seat one of these days as it is and would’ve been a terrible fit despite being nearly unstoppable in a primary. 

Given her popularity with the base, Republicans may have an easier time recruiting a solid candidate now that she’s made her decision.  OTOH, some folks like former State Senator Kevin Coughlin are already grumbling that they thought the legislature was gonna draw out Sykes and aren’t so keen on running now that it isn’t looking like a slam dunk win. 

I said it when Ryan Costello didn’t run as part of a temper tantrum over getting a non-gerrymandered district a few cycles back and I’ll say it now: folks who won’t run in a competitive race just b/c they’re salty about having to actually work for the win probably would’ve run lazy or weak campaigns anyway.  That said, Republicans may end up getting stuck with a passible, but decidedly non-A list candidate like Jane Timkin. 

If I were the NRCC, I’d go all out trying to recruit former State Rep. Anthony DeVitis (a consistent over-performer in a competitive district who scored impressive wins against a number of A-list opponents and just retired).  Yes, he was pretty vocally pro-life, but at least he has a strong track record in tough races until Democrats basically gave up b/c he beat one of our strongest State House recruits of 2014 with almost 60%.  Then again, he may not want to Re-enter politics idk. 

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/jamesd0wns/status/1701946015950000527

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/jamesd0wns/status/1701946015950000527

Nope, Sykes would have beaten her too. Extremely easy to paint as an out of touch partisan

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Economist GCB at D+2 this week, 44-42

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/xttgobsv8q/econTabReport.pdf