Seems like Hudson Valley (with exception of Rockland) and outlying areas are just bouncing back to Obama margins, maybe Clinton was just particularly weak here? Rensselaer, Columbia, Putnam and Otsego all have near complete vote counts and Biden is performing more than 10% better than Clinton in all these counties.
I doubt Trump's margin in Rockland holds up; there is a lot of mail-in vote left. Clinton was definitely weak in the exurban parts of the Hudson Valley, but I wouldn't be surprised if Biden doesn't beat her margin in Westchester.
Biden will still win Rockland but he's obviously not going to perform like he is like in other counties in the area. Unless a lot more Republicans are crossing over relatively in Rockland than other counties then Biden's margin in the county will be smaller than Clinton's (basing this off the absentee partisan return data).
I've been using REP/CON percentage of ballots to predict Trump's vote share and it has actually been very predictive in the counties reporting results. Few examples (final margins) -
Broome: predicted Biden+1.7% actual Biden+3.4%
Columbia: predicted Biden+17.5% actual Biden+16.0% (note, still around 1k outstanding)
Chautaqua: predicted Trump+18.4% actual Trump+19.9%
Monroe: predicted Biden+20.4% actual +20.8%
Putnam: predicted Trump+6.8% actual Trump+7.9%
Rensselaer: predicted Biden+6.85% actual Biden+6.82%
Right now I have Rockland at Biden+4.9%, possible it goes higher if the actual amount of returned ballots in Rockland is considerably higher than what was initially reported after election day, but they were already at about 75% return rate so it might not get too much higher.
