Hmm, I really don't see Gillespie doing all that well. While I know he over performed polls in 2014, he still didn't manage to unseat Warner. Considering that was a heavy Republican year, I would say his 2014 performance, 48.3%, is closer to a ceiling than it is a floor.
I disagree because the national GOP never really invested in that race, thinking it was Safe D. If they had, we very likely would have a Senator Gillespie right now. I think that Gillespie can win that race, even if Virginia is trending away from us.