Paraguay 2013

[Famous Mortimer]

Happening April 21.

Most recent poll:

Horacio Cartes (Colorado Party, conservative) 42.7%
Efraín Alegre (Authentic Radical Liberal Party, liberal) 29.2%
Mario Ferreiro (Country Alliance, left-wing but split from Lugo) 9.6%
Lino Oviedo Sánchez (National Union of Ethical Citizens, right-wing populist, candidate replacing his recently dead uncle of a similar name) 6.2%
Anibal Carrillo (Frente Guasú, left-wing, Lugo partisans) 2.7%
Miguel Carrizosa (Beloved Fatherland Party, vague populist party) 0.5%
Lilian Soto (Kuña Pyrenda Movement, sounds like an indigenous based party) 0.2%

Looks like a return to the pre-Lugo party systems of Colorados vs. Liberals.

Additionally, while it may look like the Lugoites have crashed (and they have) it's not quite as bad as it looks when you consider last time they had the backing of the Liberals.

[Famous Mortimer]

I'm not too sure either.

Historically, it had the classic Latin American division between church/military/landowner backed conservatives (Colorados) and banker/small businessman backed Liberals.

It doesn't appear they had a neat city based rivalry like in Nicaragua, Colombia, Ecuador though.

As far as I can tell, it's left wing cities and right-wing countryside. That is to say, Lugo did better in the cities in the last election.

[Famous Mortimer]

Some interesting family melodrama taking place on the left.

Senator Carlos Filizzola, Interior Minister from 2011-2012, leads the Party for a Country in Solidarity and is backing Lugoite Anibal Carrillo.

His cousin, Senator Rafael Filizzola, Interior Minister from 2008-2011, is leader of the Democratic Progressive Party, which broke away from the Party for a Country in Solidarity. He's the Vice Presidential candidate of the Liberals.

[Famous Mortimer]

Among the other noteworth leftist parties:

The National Encounter, which was a significant third force upon the return of democracy, is backing the liberals.

The Revolutionary Febrerista Party, which traces its legacy back to a short lived left-wing military government in the 30s, is backing Mario Ferreiro.

The Christian Democratic Party is also backing Ferreiro.

Meanwhile, the Communists support Lugo's candidate.

[Famous Mortimer]

Does Venezuela?

Argentina has run-offs but with the stupid rule that you only have to win 40% to avoid one. Bolivia has a "run-off" where the Congress gets to decide between the top 2.

[Famous Mortimer]

It gets worse and worse.

Jorge Oviedo Matto resigned today to "avoid a disastrous precedent" as his removal was foreseen and imminent. There was apparently a sufficient majority in Senate to remove Oviedo Matto as the governing board of the Colorado Party had officially called the senators from the party to vote for the removal.

The new speaker of the Senate is Alfredo Jaeggli, previously the deputy speaker, who was elected during an extraordinary session that lasted less than two minutes (!) Jaeggli is a member of the Authentic Radical Liberal Party and was the only Liberal to vote last week in favour of the removal of Oviedo Matto. He should remained as speaker of the Senate until next June.

Ironically, Jaeggli was previously accused of being himself involved in a fraudulous sale of lands . In 2008, at the end of the presidency of Nicanor Duarte (Colorado Party), he tried to sale lands he didn't even possess to the Ministry of Public Works and Communications. The sale failed as the Ministry discovered that Jaeggli's land titles had been forged. Also, in the meantime, the Fernando Lugo administration took office with Efraín Alegre as new minister of Publics Works and Communications.

Efraín Alegre received the support of the Christian Democratic Party (center left), which supported Lugo in 2008 election. However, some membres of the party disagree and will rather support Mario Ferreiro.

Horacio Cartes is accused of owning a secret bank in the Cook Islands (the article is in English) and using it for money laundering. As the owner of a tobacco company, he is also strongly suspected to be involved in tobacco smuggling.

To add to that, both Cartes' and Alegre's sides claim that their leader will win the election and even give the number of votes they will receive.

So a pro-Liberal Colorado resigned and was replaced with a pro-Colorado Liberal?

[Famous Mortimer]

How many of Alegre voters were Lugo supporters willing to stop Cartes? Maybe 1/3.

Eh, the left has never been that strong in Paraguay. It seems like Lugo benefited from Liberal support in the last election more than the Liberals benefited from Lugo.

[Famous Mortimer]

Anybody know what the hell Beloved Fatherland stands/stood for?

I remember when they did really well in 2003, the NYT ran an article attempting to lump them in with the red wave.

More recently I only see them referenced to as conservative but with few further details.

I'm also surprised they ran someone other than Pedro Fadul, as I assumed it was just based around him.

[Famous Mortimer]

Also, to be a bit nitpick-y, the Democratic Progressive Party and the National Encounter Party are satellites of the Liberals now. As I pointed out earlier in the thread, the PPD leader was the Liberal VP candidate.

Probably shouldn't group them as part of a third force.

[Famous Mortimer]

The corrupt Kirchner regime had gay marriage before your country did.