In spite of the somwhat sensationalist title, this is a lengthy piece well worth reading to gain a clearer understanding of the reasons behind some the recent R shifts in South Texas (although it’s not limited to that often strereotyped region):
"Why Democrats Are Losing Texas Latinos"
By Jack Herrera
Texas MonthlyExcerpt, which undescores that larger shifts like that are (as is generally the case in electoral politics/voting behavior) driven by a combination of ideology, outreach, and identity-
There are three main theories on what’s driving Tejano voters’ shift toward Republicans. One, embraced in part by Cuellar, is that the movement toward Trump, who was uniquely attractive to some Tejano voters, was a fluke. Many down-ballot Democrats won a larger percentage of the vote in South Texas than Biden did. Tejanos I spoke with across the Rio Grande Valley—male and female—were attracted specifically to Trump’s brutish and unapologetic masculinity, his machismo. He also had a remarkable ability to reach people who felt left behind in an elite-driven economic system. And he benefited from the decision by Democrats to campaign by phone and text rather than in person. For all these reasons, some believe the 2020 results are unlikely to be repeated in 2022.
The other two hypotheses, however, suggest the party faces a more challenging future. According to Shor, the Democratic base has shifted recently in ways that might be hurting it among Hispanic voters across the country. In the past four years, Democrats have self-consciously invested heavily in the political priorities of progressive, well-paid, highly educated Americans who live in big cities and suburbs. Often maligned as “woke” politics, tacking left socially has helped Democrats attract and energize young white liberals, while at the same time alienating conservative and moderate Hispanic and, to some extent, Black Americans. While the Republican gains in South Texas were large enough to flip entire counties, Hispanic neighborhoods across the country—from East San Jose, California, to South Tucson, Arizona—also shifted toward the GOP, even as Democrats maintained comfortable leads in the final totals. The party historically has needed more than 60 percent of the Hispanic electorate to win on the national level. If it is losing conservative Hispanic voters, it could be facing an extinction-level event.
The final theory does not portend doom for national Democrats but is nevertheless dour news for the party’s chances of flipping Texas. Even if Hispanic voters across the country largely stay blue, Tejanos, like Cubanos in Miami, may be outliers: “The Rio Grande Valley is just super weird,” in Shor’s words. Though the language of “trying to be white” is crude and ascribes intent that may or may not exist, it’s clear that political anxieties were powerful enough to overcome traditional party allegiances in 2020. And that suggests that Tejano identity is changing. Tejanos, like the Irish Americans before them, may continue to align more closely with the interests shared by their Anglo neighbors than with those of immigrants and people of color.
Regardless of which theory proves most prescient, the Texas GOP is enjoying a ripe opportunity to court a large new bloc of voters. On a Sunday this spring, as the borderlands began to feel the first inklings of the stifling heat of summer, Tyler Kraus, the former chairman of the Webb County Republican party, drove out to South Laredo to canvass. It was well before he’d typically start going door-to-door in a nonelection year, and even though he wouldn’t be campaigning for Trump that day, he wore a red “Keep America Great” hat and was primed to get ugly looks. Neighborhoods in South Laredo are almost 100 percent Hispanic, and their residents are some of the poorest in the city.
The first question Kraus, who is Mexican American on his mother’s side, had for those who opened their doors was “¿Inglés o español?” Then he’d launch into a pitch in the prospective voter’s preferred language, usually framed around protecting the Second Amendment or opposing abortion. “We’re basically trying to tell them that the Republican party aligns with their values,” he told me.
https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/democrats-losing-texas-latinos-trump/
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