The Hill: Van Hollen targeting N.J. seats, but state GOP officials unafraid

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Geographically PA-3 looks similar to the old PA-21, but the GOP altered it just enough to be safe for English and more Republican. Check out the 2000 numbers:

old PA-21: Bush 49.2/Gore 48.3
PA-3: Bush 51.0/Gore 46.6

Yes, I know that. Note that I mentioned that it is now both a little larger and a little more Republican. Still, essentially, the same district though.

O/c English was safe anyway. I think it's more a case of making it easier to hold in non-fluke circumstances when it next opens up.

[Keystone Phil]

I'll swap a DINO for a RINO. You're just worried about what happens when your party loses touch with suburban America. You lost your majority because folks like Melissa Hart lost. Imagine what happens when the Mark Krik's and Charlie Dent's go down. Where will the GOP go?
They'll have to go back to the Deep South.

Suburban America is going to re-elect Gerlach. Suburban America will send Hart back. Suburban America will bring Fitz back.

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And the DCCC is the biggest joke at Gerlach campaign HQs. He has beaten them everytime. Let them "target" him...again.

Bush bailed him out in 2002. Duh.  Gerlach will have to rely on Romney to help him. LMFAO

Bush didn't bail him out in 2004 and 2006. Duh.

By the way, Romney won't win the nomination.

You're so wrong on so many things.



Again, how old are you?

[Keystone Phil]

Are you insinuating that Bush will be more popular in 2008? If so, why?

I am saying that Bush and Iraq might not be as important in 2008. You are jumping to way too many conclusions about the next election.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Suburban America will send Hart back. Suburban America will bring Fitz back.

LOL!

Ever heard of Ken Lucas?

[MarkWarner08]

I'll swap a DINO for a RINO. You're just worried about what happens when your party loses touch with suburban America. You lost your majority because folks like Melissa Hart lost. Imagine what happens when the Mark Krik's and Charlie Dent's go down. Where will the GOP go?
They'll have to go back to the Deep South.

Suburban America is going to re-elect Gerlach. Suburban America will send Hart back. Suburban America will bring Fitz back.

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And the DCCC is the biggest joke at Gerlach campaign HQs. He has beaten them everytime. Let them "target" him...again.

Bush bailed him out in 2002. Duh.  Gerlach will have to rely on Romney to help him. LMFAO

Bush didn't bail him out in 2004 and 2006. Duh.

By the way, Romney won't win the nomination.

You're so wrong on so many things.



Again, how old are you?

Why do you think Iraq won't be an important issue? Why do you resort to ad hominem attacks and then claim that Fitz and Hart will be back? Who do you think will win the GOP nod? Why do you attack and never explain? Are you sad that the conservatives lack a true leader? Are you sad the GOP has few ides for the future? Do you miss Tom DeLay and Denny Hastert?  Do you think 2008 will be a good year for Republicans? Do you still think McCain is a moderate?


If you said yes to any of those questions, you're denying reality.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

BTW am I the only one who thinks this ad is retarded?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NId_e1oOPy4

[MarkWarner08]

BTW am I the only one who thinks this ad is retarded?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NId_e1oOPy4

This was a good ad from Fitz.


Lois Murphy ran one of the worst campaigns of 2006 and she still got 49.4% of the vote.


Thank you to everyone who's talked about this race. This has been a fascinating discussion. If only the people of the 6th were as politically engaged as us...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No, it's extremely stupid because it's so blatantly obvious how he edited the clip so much to make Murphy look clueless.

[Mr.Phips]

I'll swap a DINO for a RINO. You're just worried about what happens when your party loses touch with suburban America. You lost your majority because folks like Melissa Hart lost. Imagine what happens when the Mark Krik's and Charlie Dent's go down. Where will the GOP go?
They'll have to go back to the Deep South.

Suburban America will send Hart back. Suburban America will bring Fitz back.

The Dems have just as good a chance to knock off Dent, Murphy(PA-18), and Gerlach.

[Reaganfan]

Iraq has been improving for the last week and a half....hopefully things are turning around.

By the way, this political bickering between Phil and Mas is so much, I must say, "I'm Slim Shady, yes I'm the real Shady." Boo-ya all dog, I love George W. Bush...in 15 years, we will say, "Wow...he wasn't bad...he was a good president."

[Keystone Phil]

Why do you think Iraq won't be an important issue?

No, I'm saying that you shouldn't assume that it will be such a big issue.

 

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I'm debating points. You are the one throwing out stupid attacks when you can't win.

 

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McCain and how is that relevant?

 

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Look who is talking. I explain plenty and then you go find some hack counter point to everything. Like the environment issue.

 

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First off, you like to shift the topic more than anyone else on this forum. This argument is about Gerlach and PA 6 but, for whatever reason, you think I am frustrated about 2008 and want me to explode about it. You couldn't be further from the truth.

My leader for 2008, since Santorum and Pawlenty are not running, is John McCain. I am happy with that.

Why would I miss Haster or DeLay especially when I never cared for the latter of the two? Again, you are trying to bait me with something and I am quite literally laughing it off.

I don't know if 2008 will be good or not. I am not going to set my opinion in stone over a year in advance.

Looking at McCain's record, I always saw him an a center-right conservative maverick, not a moderate, so continue to make things up.

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And, of course, I win again because you are throwing your straw man tactics around. What a cheap hack.

BTW am I the only one who thinks this ad is retarded?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NId_e1oOPy4

This was a good ad from Fitz.


Lois Murphy ran one of the worst campaigns of 2006 and she still got 49.4% of the vote.


Thank you to everyone who's talked about this race. This has been a fascinating discussion. If only the people of the 6th were as politically engaged as us...

Hahahaha! You are pathetic! This ad was clearly about Pat Murphy and you, yet again, resort to your PA 6 hack comments!

Seriously, kid, look at your post and what we are actually talking about.

 But since we are, yet again, on the topic, answer this one for me: How was her campaign one of the worst run in 2006? She had the money, the big time backers coming in almost every week...how was it poorly run?


As for that ad, it was very good. Fitz's only mistake was saying how he approved of the message in a still, black and white image. It was regarded as one of the best ads of the cycle in this area. And it wasn't "blatantly obvious" that it was edited. They cut off at the ending, though.

 The only problem for Fitz was that he should have known that you have to run more than one ad.

[Smash255]

Iraq has been improving for the last week and a half....hopefully things are turning around.

By the way, this political bickering between Phil and Mas is so much, I must say, "I'm Slim Shady, yes I'm the real Shady." Boo-ya all dog, I love George W. Bush...in 15 years, we will say, "Wow...he wasn't bad...he was a good president."

Umm not really.  You do realize that everytime we have one of these offensives if the violence goes down for a short period of time it comes right back.  We have been down  this road one or two well HUNDRED times, what makes you think this will be any different and the violence won't come surging back like it hass EVERY OTHER TIME?

[Chesco ABB]

Hi. First post here. I figured I'd de-lurk and finally register as I live (and vote) in PA 6 (and also the 19th State Senate district). I think Dinniman would be the strongest candidate. He's not a flash in the pan, as he'd been a County Commissioner (guaranteed Dem spot) since the early 90s, and, would have a high level of name recognition here in Chesco and could  really cut into Gerlach's base here. He's been virtually the only elected Dem for that time. He's known for getting involved in worthy causes and has a good reputation in these parts, and got a fair bit of Republican support in the special election, soundly beating a strong candidate in Carol Aichele. (I wouldn't mind her taking over Dinniman's old seat, should he beat Gerlach.) I believe Dinniman would start as the favorite, and I'd certainly consider voting for him, and I've voted for Jim all three times that he has run for Congress. Should be very interesting to watch if Dinniman enters the race. Obviously, a lot would depend on the national mood in 2008.

[Keystone Phil]

Hi. First post here. I figured I'd de-lurk and finally register as I live (and vote) in PA 6 (and also the 19th State Senate district). I think Dinniman would be the strongest candidate. He's not a flash in the pan, as he'd been a County Commissioner (guaranteed Dem spot) since the early 90s, and, would have a high level of name recognition here in Chesco and could  really cut into Gerlach's base here. He's been virtually the only elected Dem for that time. He's known for getting involved in worthy causes and has a good reputation in these parts, and got a fair bit of Republican support in the special election, soundly beating a strong candidate in Carol Aichele. (I wouldn't mind her taking over Dinniman's old seat, should he beat Gerlach.) I believe Dinniman would start as the favorite, and I'd certainly consider voting for him, and I've voted for Jim all three times that he has run for Congress. Should be very interesting to watch if Dinniman enters the race. Obviously, a lot would depend on the national mood in 2008.

Great first post. Welcome to the forum!

Dinniman is a strong candidate. He is recognizable and did run a good campaign to run that Special election. However, I think Gerlach has the edge. It'll be tough. Let's see if he even runs.

[MarkWarner08]

Hi. First post here. I figured I'd de-lurk and finally register as I live (and vote) in PA 6 (and also the 19th State Senate district). I think Dinniman would be the strongest candidate. He's not a flash in the pan, as he'd been a County Commissioner (guaranteed Dem spot) since the early 90s, and, would have a high level of name recognition here in Chesco and could  really cut into Gerlach's base here. He's been virtually the only elected Dem for that time. He's known for getting involved in worthy causes and has a good reputation in these parts, and got a fair bit of Republican support in the special election, soundly beating a strong candidate in Carol Aichele. (I wouldn't mind her taking over Dinniman's old seat, should he beat Gerlach.) I believe Dinniman would start as the favorite, and I'd certainly consider voting for him, and I've voted for Jim all three times that he has run for Congress. Should be very interesting to watch if Dinniman enters the race. Obviously, a lot would depend on the national mood in 2008.

Great first post. Welcome to the forum!

Dinniman is a strong candidate. He is recognizable and did run a good campaign to run that Special election. However, I think Gerlach has the edge. It'll be tough. Let's see if he even runs.

Here's my honest, non-hackish opinion. If Dinniman runs, Gerlach will be in the fight of his life and has a 50/50 shot of winning. If virtually any other Democrat runs, Gerlach will finally win by a comfortable ( 2%+ margin).

PA-03: Phil English will win re-election, if he runs. his 53% closely tracks Bush's 54% in 2004. This district is a gerrymandered monstrosity that will elect a Republican, unless the Democrats find a strong candidate. The race reminds me of NY-24. Dems won because Mike Arcuri was an excellent candidate and because the GOP opponent inexplicably  supported raising taxes.

PA-04. Keystone Phil is nearly as sanguine about Melissa Hart's chances as  I am up Andy Dinniman's chances. I think Melissa Hart has a good shot of winning her seat back. The question is how well will Altmire deliver the pork and can Hart find a rationale for her run.  Jay Dickey narrowly lost his seat in 2000 and ran again in 2002 and lost by 20% Baron Hill narrowly lsot his seat in 2004 and ran again and won by 5% in 2006.  Why did Hill win and Dickey lose, because Hill had a message discipline and a indefatigable demeanor. If Hart wants it and runs hard, she can win -- otherwise, she'll lose.

PA-06. Here are the facts. Jim Gerlach only won 51% in 2002, a year where the GOP was soaring high and Bush had a 60% popularity rating. In 2004, Gerlach faced an unknown lawyer from Mont Co who won a surprising 49% of the vote. In 2006, despite Rendell and Casey's landslide, Bush's low approvals, the GOP's national collapse and the "Sixth Year Curse,"  Jim Gerlach survived.  WHy did he do so poorly in 2002 and  2004 and so well in 2006? Was it his campaign team, his opponents, his district's dynamics? What we do know is that Gerlach is a survivor with a tenuous hold on this district. If Dinniman runs, Gerlach will have to buy a new pair of running shoes.

PA-07. Curt  Weldon was a local institution, but an FBI scandal and a politically attractive opponent who raised $3.3 million dollars were a deadly combination for Weldon. The NRCC seems to be taking a pass on this race. It's possible this is Joe Sestak's seat for life.

PA-08. We all agree Pat Murphy won because of the four letter word. Not a profane word, this word is Iraq. Had Iraq not been an issue, war hero Murphy would've lost by a large margin.  Murphy's decision to join the  Blue Dogs may foreshadow a movement to the right on economic issues. If this is his goal, he can probably get advice from Melissa Bean, a woman who should never have been reelected but who won because of her ability to obviate the tax issue.

PA-10. Don Sherwood's best defense was he didn't choke his mistress. The may be ok in a secular progressive district in New York, but it doesn't play in rural Pennsylvania.   What was so surprising about Chris Carney's 53%-47% victory was that Don Sherwood got 47% of the vote. This district is a solid 50% GOP district.  I'd rate this seat as a toss-up/leans GOP for 2008.

PA-15: Charlie Dent is an even better fit for this district than Pat Toomey. Dent is an economic conservative and a social moderate. He's well-liked by his constituents, his attentive to the needs of his district and he's an amiable fellow. In 2006, he only got 53% of the vote. This was largely because the wave shrunk the margins of Republicans nationwide. If the Democrats can find a strong contender here, they can make a race out of this. Otherwise,  Dent and Mark Kirk can join Jim Marshall and Gene Taylor in the "Our District's should be represented by a Congressman from the other party but they aren't because we're so personally popular" club.

PA-18. Where there's smoke, there's fire. If the corruption allegations with Tim Murphy stick, he could be the next Bob Ney. He also could be the next John Doolittle, an obviously corrupt congressman who survive because of the gerrymandering of the district.

 Keystone Phil,  I hope this shows I'm not always an annoying hack.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

PA-15: Charlie Dent is an even better fit for this district than Pat Toomey. Dent is an economic conservative and a social moderate.

Neither Dent or Toomey are a good fit for the district at all. Murtha would be, or that guy from the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area with the Polish name. Or as far as Republicans go, Chris Smith from New Jersey (how he gets elected there of all places is beyond me)

[Mr.Phips]

Hi. First post here. I figured I'd de-lurk and finally register as I live (and vote) in PA 6 (and also the 19th State Senate district). I think Dinniman would be the strongest candidate. He's not a flash in the pan, as he'd been a County Commissioner (guaranteed Dem spot) since the early 90s, and, would have a high level of name recognition here in Chesco and could  really cut into Gerlach's base here. He's been virtually the only elected Dem for that time. He's known for getting involved in worthy causes and has a good reputation in these parts, and got a fair bit of Republican support in the special election, soundly beating a strong candidate in Carol Aichele. (I wouldn't mind her taking over Dinniman's old seat, should he beat Gerlach.) I believe Dinniman would start as the favorite, and I'd certainly consider voting for him, and I've voted for Jim all three times that he has run for Congress. Should be very interesting to watch if Dinniman enters the race. Obviously, a lot would depend on the national mood in 2008.

Great first post. Welcome to the forum!

Dinniman is a strong candidate. He is recognizable and did run a good campaign to run that Special election. However, I think Gerlach has the edge. It'll be tough. Let's see if he even runs.

Here's my honest, non-hackish opinion. If Dinniman runs, Gerlach will be in the fight of his life and has a 50/50 shot of winning. If virtually any other Democrat runs, Gerlach will finally win by a comfortable ( 2%+ margin).

PA-03: Phil English will win re-election, if he runs. his 53% closely tracks Bush's 54% in 2004. This district is a gerrymandered monstrosity that will elect a Republican, unless the Democrats find a strong candidate. The race reminds me of NY-24. Dems won because Mike Arcuri was an excellent candidate and because the GOP opponent inexplicably  supported raising taxes.

PA-04. Keystone Phil is nearly as sanguine about Melissa Hart's chances as  I am up Andy Dinniman's chances. I think Melissa Hart has a good shot of winning her seat back. The question is how well will Altmire deliver the pork and can Hart find a rationale for her run.  Jay Dickey narrowly lost his seat in 2000 and ran again in 2002 and lost by 20% Baron Hill narrowly lsot his seat in 2004 and ran again and won by 5% in 2006.  Why did Hill win and Dickey lose, because Hill had a message discipline and a indefatigable demeanor. If Hart wants it and runs hard, she can win -- otherwise, she'll lose.

There is already a pretty large GOP field that is interested in this seat.  I keep hearing about this Ron Francis guy.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A blood primary greatly benefits Altmire.

That's basically a pro-life Democrat district. Altmire is a great fit.

[Keystone Phil]

Here's my honest, non-hackish opinion. If Dinniman runs, Gerlach will be in the fight of his life and has a 50/50 shot of winning. If virtually any other Democrat runs, Gerlach will finally win by a comfortable ( 2%+ margin).

Why couldn't you have sad that all along? I can deal with that. Gerlach would have a slight edge over Dinniman.

PA-07. Curt  Weldon was a local institution, but an FBI scandal and a politically attractive opponent who raised $3.3 million dollars were a deadly combination for Weldon. The NRCC seems to be taking a pass on this race. It's possible this is Joe Sestak's seat for life.[/quote]

Sestak has it for as long as he wants.

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I am worried that Carney could be a Holden but it's not likely to happen. The GOP should get this seat. As you said, it is quite an interesting sign that PA 10 doesn't like Dems if Sherwood can get 47%.

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PA 15 is fine for the GOP. Toomey was fine for the district especially since the district is more socially conservative than economically conservative (with an all around conservative being a better fit than a social moderate and economic conservative).

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If it becomes a problem, watch for the GOP to primary him.

 

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Why can't you always be like that? Seriously. I loved reading that analysis.

[Keystone Phil]

PA-15: Charlie Dent is an even better fit for this district than Pat Toomey. Dent is an economic conservative and a social moderate.

Neither Dent or Toomey are a good fit for the district at all.

The district isn't what it once was.

[Chesco ABB]

Great first post. Welcome to the forum!

Dinniman is a strong candidate. He is recognizable and did run a good campaign to run that Special election. However, I think Gerlach has the edge. It'll be tough. Let's see if he even runs.

Thanks, Phil. Dinniman's state senate seat is up in '08 anyway, and he's not getting any younger. (I'm guessing the State Senate seat would go GOP with Aichele or Curt Schroder, though the Dems would put up a fight.)If Andy has any designs on a Congressional seat, this would be the time. A moderate presidential GOP candidate would likely help Gerlach, but I think he needs all the help he can get, as he's just never established himself in this seat. We shall see.

[Mr.Phips]

PA-15: Charlie Dent is an even better fit for this district than Pat Toomey. Dent is an economic conservative and a social moderate.

Neither Dent or Toomey are a good fit for the district at all.

The district isn't what it once was.

It pretty much is. 

[Keystone Phil]

There is already a pretty large GOP field that is interested in this seat.  I keep hearing about this Ron Francis guy.

Politics1 mentions both Francis and Hart but it doesn't matter. If Hart wants it (and she clearly does), she has it. There won't be a serious primary on the GOP side in PA 4.

A blood primary greatly benefits Altmire.

That's basically a pro-life Democrat district. Altmire is a great fit.

Altmire is a good fit but Hart is going to prove that she is more personally popular.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

PA-15: Charlie Dent is an even better fit for this district than Pat Toomey. Dent is an economic conservative and a social moderate.

Neither Dent or Toomey are a good fit for the district at all.

The district isn't what it once was.

Then why'd it vote for Kerry (even though by the narrowest of margins)? I doubt it was because of social issues turning them off to Bush.

[Keystone Phil]

PA-15: Charlie Dent is an even better fit for this district than Pat Toomey. Dent is an economic conservative and a social moderate.

Neither Dent or Toomey are a good fit for the district at all.

The district isn't what it once was.

It pretty much is. 

For someone who has traveled through the district to see family many times, I see development in this old union area that doesn't match what it once was. The young professionals are moving in in droves. This isn't Joe Union territory anymore.

PA-15: Charlie Dent is an even better fit for this district than Pat Toomey. Dent is an economic conservative and a social moderate.

Neither Dent or Toomey are a good fit for the district at all.

The district isn't what it once was.

Then why'd it vote for Kerry (even though by the narrowest of margins)? I doubt it was because of social issues turning them off to Bush.

You'll never accept the argument but Pennsylvanians, for the most part, stick with their registration in Presidential elections.