OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[It’s so Joever]

Give me an s!
Give me an a!
Give me an f,e, R!

[It’s so Joever]

Spicy hot take: This senate race will be much closer than expected (although the GOPer will win in the end) and will trick Atlas into thinking Ohio is still a swing state in 2024.

Quote this in a year and a half.

[It’s so Joever]

Watch Democrats waste Money here.

[It’s so Joever]

Somebody should probably follow up with Jay Dee and see if he still feels this way:


https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1495091506952159233

Ryan should press Vance hard on this in the Columbus and Cleveland media markets.

[It’s so Joever]

Regardless, there are TONS of Poles in Cleveland area. I have a hard time believing they are exactly pro Russia right now.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1577018237354639370

That’s because Thiel knows Ohio is safe lol.

[It’s so Joever]

The side which tried to use funding to tell themselves they can win is the side that will lose. See:
Wbrocks in OH-Sen and WI-Sen and SirWoodbury in GA-Sen

[It’s so Joever]

Tim Ryan is going to win and his performance against a merely bad but not garbage tier candidate is going to be more impressive than Fetterman.

We should be talking about this race a lot more, but we aren't because people are only concerned about seat #50, when in reality, the minimum expectation should be 51-52 (GA and PA are strong D, AZ pretty strong Lean), or an outside shot at 53. It's clear 50 is not enough to matter, and it's difficult to see gains in 2024. They're going to need that cushion now - win or lose in 24.

Lol this will age poorly.

[It’s so Joever]

In a D+0.5 to R+4 year there is no way a Democrat is going to
come that close nevermind win in a state that is R+2 to R+9

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri

Elections are about actual people, not numbers.

You of all people are saying this? Wow maybe Ryan will win!

[It’s so Joever]

In a D+0.5 to R+4 year there is no way a Democrat is going to
come that close nevermind win in a state that is R+2 to R+9

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri

Elections are about actual people, not numbers.

You of all people are saying this? Wow maybe Ryan will win!

Not sure why you singled me out (although I appreciate living rent-free in yet another person's head — you’re the third one today, actually), but I’ve never been a believer in uniform/linear shift, nor do I believe that elections are predetermined by PVI. My position is that in the vast majority of cases, it can be assumed that both sides will run a reasonably competent campaign, which will then usually lead to underlying 'fundamentals' such as state lean/trend, demographic composition of the electorate, and overall national environment tipping the scales one way or the other.

This, however, is not one of those cases. Here, we have a largely dysfunctional campaign and an extremely inept and entirely unappealing candidate who is reliant on outside groups to do the job/messaging for him — his own campaign is practically non-existent! We had a somewhat similar case in OH-SEN 2016, with the lopsided advantage being in favor of Republicans in that race, so it’s not like there is no recent precedent for this. It is entirely reasonable to argue that the underlying 'fundamentals' are too strong for campaign quality to make the difference in terms of binary outcome in the Ryan vs. Vance race, but I’d certainly urge people to move away from repetitive, simplistic, and frankly lazy approaches to elections like "NV is inherently inelastic/Titanium Lean D because it’s urban and always narrowly voted D in the past" or "OH is a Trump +8 state, nothing else even matters." I say this as someone who believes that Vance will win (even if by a very embarrassing margin, with Ryan leading for most of the night).

lol I don’t actually dislike you, you just have a reputation for having a…robotic view of the electorate. Anyways I don’t entirely disagree, patterns are meant to be broken, but I don’t think Vance’s campaign has been as bad as people are making it out to be.

[It’s so Joever]

On the day that a jury socked Alex Jones for nearly $1 Billion in damages to the Sandy Hook families, a reminder:

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1580292045742436352

Oh no, Vance criticized Rachel Maddow, I'm sure Ohio voters will hate that. /s

By the way, would you like me to post Rachel Maddow's commentary on the Covid vaccines?

you literally missed the entire part of the post. wow.

Oh, ok, you do want me to post Maddow dishing on the vaccines. At your service, then!

The point of the post was someone was trying to dunk on Vance for tweeting out that he considers Alex Jones a more reliable source of information than Rachel Maddow. This was supposed to be super clever and timely because Jones had a rough day in court today. Know what else happened today? A Pfizer exec testified to EU parliament that his company never tested the Covid vaccines to see how they affected transmission of the virus. Which brought this little gem from Maddow back to light:

https://twitter.com/jstylman/status/1580276759215624192

"The virus stops with every vaccinated person," Maddow said. Throughout the entire segment, she was as wrong as one can possibly be. The stuff she was saying wasn't believed to be true even by the manufacturers of the damn thing, but she was at her desk passing her wishful thinking off as absolute fact. Which is exactly the kind of thing JD Vance was criticizing.

So what flavor is the koolaid today?

I'm in Ohio, so it sure as s*** ain't blue.

Congrats on posting this on the one site that uses red for Ds and blue for Rs.

[It’s so Joever]

On the day that a jury socked Alex Jones for nearly $1 Billion in damages to the Sandy Hook families, a reminder:

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1580292045742436352

Oh no, Vance criticized Rachel Maddow, I'm sure Ohio voters will hate that. /s

By the way, would you like me to post Rachel Maddow's commentary on the Covid vaccines?

you literally missed the entire part of the post. wow.

Oh, ok, you do want me to post Maddow dishing on the vaccines. At your service, then!

The point of the post was someone was trying to dunk on Vance for tweeting out that he considers Alex Jones a more reliable source of information than Rachel Maddow. This was supposed to be super clever and timely because Jones had a rough day in court today. Know what else happened today? A Pfizer exec testified to EU parliament that his company never tested the Covid vaccines to see how they affected transmission of the virus. Which brought this little gem from Maddow back to light:

https://twitter.com/jstylman/status/1580276759215624192

"The virus stops with every vaccinated person," Maddow said. Throughout the entire segment, she was as wrong as one can possibly be. The stuff she was saying wasn't believed to be true even by the manufacturers of the damn thing, but she was at her desk passing her wishful thinking off as absolute fact. Which is exactly the kind of thing JD Vance was criticizing.

So what flavor is the koolaid today?

I'm in Ohio, so it sure as s*** ain't blue.

Congrats on posting this on the one site that uses red for Ds and blue for Rs.

You got me there. So much cleverness.

I know, I am known for being the cleverest. Whenever I open my mouth i say something so witty everyone laughs but in a good way and applauds because I really am the cleverest.