Post-debate focus group/polling stuff

[TheGlobalizer]

Flash polls = garbage.

[Alcon]

SurveyUSA

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2781429f-786e-4830-bf64-d896decf284c

California
Overall winner: 56-28 Obama (+28)
Truthful: 56-32 Obama (+24)
Angry: 70-15 McCain (+55)
Better vision: 62-31 Obama (+31)
One-liner: 42-33 Obama (+9)

Among independents, Obama takes it 55-29.  Democrats give him it 75-10.  Republicans give McCain the nod, 60-23.

In search of the Washington state version.

[J. J.]

These are by far the worst post-debate polls for McCain we've seen yet.

I really thought this was his debate, and I even think he may have won it.

Not a knockout blow, but a good performance. 

[Torie]

SurveyUSA

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2781429f-786e-4830-bf64-d896decf284c

California
Overall winner: 56-28 Obama (+28)
Truthful: 56-32 Obama (+24)
Angry: 70-15 McCain (+55)
Better vision: 62-31 Obama (+31)
One-liner: 42-33 Obama (+9)

Among independents, Obama takes it 55-29.  Democrats give him it 75-10.  Republicans give McCain the nod, 60-23.

Some of this is driven by who is watching, and the partisan divide of same (I suspect some McCain supporters find it too painful to watch anymore, which tends to exaggerate the numbers). At this point, the leitmotif is that swing voters want to believe in Obama, for obvious reasons. This is not an exercise of debate moderators assessing who won. But Obama does nothing to deflect folks from wanting to believe in him. Folks really want change now. They are frightened. And in that context, Obama is a more soothing shrink. Ask you Dad about that. He is like a massage of your head, when you are all strung out.

[War on Want]

These are by far the worst post-debate polls for McCain we've seen yet.

I really thought this was his debate, and I even think he may have won it.

I see you are supporting Obama, it's about time.

[War on Want]

This is much better than I expected but it shows how good McCain's Ayers attacks are and how well they perform with undecided voters.

[Alcon]

I think you're right about a bad sample in these polls, Torie.

California re-weighted to the most recent SUSA poll:

Obama 52%
McCain 30%

To 2006 exit polls:

Obama 53%
McCain 32%

To 2004 exit polls:

Obama 52%
McCain 32%

Of course, this assumes that Democrats, Republicans and independents are representative samples here.  Quite possibly un-so.

[Verily]

I was worried during the debate, but I think the negativity really hurt McCain. On par, McCain would have won the debate, but his tone didn't match the mood of the nation at all. The people wanted answers, and positive discussion. McCain's attacks on Obama would probably have been best brought out in the first debate or outside of the debate environment. In particular, McCain's attempt to bring up Ayers flopped dramatically, although some of his policy-based attacks were much stronger.

Anyway, not a big number-mover, but McCain's unfavorable ratings will go up, and Obama's favorable ratings will go up, and there might be a net shift of a point in Obama's direction. Certainly not what McCain needed. (Then again, I'm not sure this debate could have provided that; McCain should have gone positive and crossed his fingers that Obama would screw up.)

[Lunar]

Here's what TPM sez:

The first snap polls on the debate are out, and they're giving a resounding win to Barack Obama.

In the CBS poll of undecided debate-watchers, 53% say Obama won, only 22% say McCain won, and 24% say it was a tie.

The CNN poll was just read on the air, surveying all debate-watchers in general. It shows 58% saying Obama won, to 31% saying McCain won. Barack Obama's personal ratings are 66% favorable to 33% unfavorable, way ahead of McCain's score of 49%-49%.

Late Update: Some more numbers from the CNN poll were just read on TV. Obama was seen as stating his ideas more clearly by 66%-25%, was seen as the stronger leader by 56%-39%, and was more likable by 70%-22%. McCain did win in one category: He's the candidate who launched more attacks on his opponent, by a whopping 80%-7%.

Late Late Update: Independents, who made up 30% of CNN's sample, gave it to Obama 57%-31%, essentially the same as the overall margin for Obama.

[Boris]

Are these flash poll numbers more favorable to Obama than they were for Kerry after the first 2004 debate? It certainly seems that way; I personally thought it was about a tie, maybe a slight McCain win. Definitely not a slaughter like 2004 was.

[Eraserhead]

Are these flash poll numbers more favorable to Obama than they were for Kerry after the first 2004 debate? It certainly seems that way; I personally thought it was about a tie, maybe a slight McCain win. Definitely not a slaughter like 2004 was.

Yes, they are much more favorable than they were towards Kerry.

[MR maverick]

Obama hit McCain pretty good at the end when after McCain started talking about special needs programs .

How are you going to do that when you do a across the board spending freeze?

Owned McCain LOL

[Reds4]

Politico/IA has Obama winning the debate 49-46.. independents actually said McCain won by a margin of 51-42. Weird there would be such a huge difference in the polls. It will be interesting to see how the tracking polls react.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14618.html

[Eraserhead]

Politico/IA has Obama winning the debate 49-46.. independents actually said McCain won by a margin of 51-42. Weird there would be such a huge difference in the polls. It will be interesting to see how the tracking polls react.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14618.html

This was done by IA, so the mystery kind of solves itself right there.

[BlueSwan]

Are these flash poll numbers more favorable to Obama than they were for Kerry after the first 2004 debate? It certainly seems that way; I personally thought it was about a tie, maybe a slight McCain win. Definitely not a slaughter like 2004 was.

Yes, they are much more favorable than they were towards Kerry.

I think it's all about likability. Kerry trounced Bush in that debate, but a lot of voters simply didn't like Kerry. They found him dull and aloof. Personally, I thought he was brilliant, but I'd agree that he wasn't a man of the people. Obama, on the other hand, is as much an intellectual as Kerry, but his overall demeanor is way way more positive and optimistic. This is rewarded greatly by the voters at the moment. McCain might have performed well last night, but he lost on demeanor.

[HardRCafé]

Gore also allegedly won that third debate where he came up behind Bush and hovered over him.

[TheGlobalizer]

Regardless, debates aren't about immediate impressions, they're about lasting ones.

I think McCain had the sound bites, and some of his assertiveness works well to bolster himself and soften up Obama.  The "if you wanted to run against Bush" quote will stick, and I think some of Obama's rockstar persona is a little duller today.