Ireland by-elections, 2014

[ObserverIE]

Candidates named so far

Ivan Connaughton (FF - Roscommon-South Leitrim), general election candidate in 2011, elected to Roscommon County Council in May.

Cáit Keane (FG - Dublin South West), senator and ex-PD.

[joevsimp]

did many Progressive Democrats join Fine Gael?

[EPG]

Mostly, they became independents. Two of Fine Gael's new 2011 TDs were PD local councillors at the last general election. At least two others had been members, if briefly, in the 80s. Several FF councillors, and at least one FG councillor, in Dublin were active members in the 2000s. Elsewhere in the country, I think a handful of their politicians joined Labour but most retained their seats as independents. As for the membership - bigger than Labour's, if I recall correctly - it's hard to generalise but I would guess the vast majority did not join another party and voted FG or Independent in 2011.

[EPG]

Here are some maps of the seats up for grabs. The social-class indicator is the percentage excess of professional, managerial and technical workers over manual workers, a favoured indicator because it classifies farmers (farm size) in the same groups as urban workers. Among Dáil Éireann constituencies, it has a range of -11% to 42% (Donegal SW to Dublin S) with a median of 1% and a mean of 5%. It's 1% in Roscommon-South Leitrim and Carlow-Kilkenny, and -6% in Dublin South-West.

Dublin South-West


Urban, largely working-class, ignore the hills in the big empty area to the south. Tallaght comprises over half of this constituency, both the traditional area in the middle of the constituency and the newer Jobstown developments to the west. We talked about Tallaght here; to simplify, think of banlieues of Irish people in two-storey terraced houses. To its north-east across the motorway are established suburbs closer to the city, working-class Greenhills and bourgeois Templeogue, while to the south-east of Tallaght are Ballycullen and Firhouse, which are newer, more peripheral, middle-income suburbs.

First contested in 1981. Like many working-class areas, it became more competitive and "class-conscious" in that decade. Labour began the 1980s as the sole party here other than FF/FG, and got 18%; by 1989, the combined left reached 46%. In the interim, Mary Harney and the PDs shattered FG's support here as in the rest of west Dublin. Even FF held only one seat here from 1989 until the capital's love affair with Bertie began, then lost them all afterwards. In short, it has been very competitive, due as much to strong population growth (which weakened incumbency) as to changing class loyalties.

Dublin South-West's current representatives are 2 Labour, 1 Fine Gael and 1 Sinn Féin; Pat Rabbitte (Lab) was in cabinet and Brian Hayes (FG) was the ranking sub-cabinet minister. Hayes was elected to the European Parliament in May and Rabbitte was sacked in July. So now they will have no minister and, perhaps, two Sinn Féin TDs. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are nominating candidates from the well-off areas. Prosperous Rathfarnham to the east will be added to the constituency at the next general election, so there should be two seats available for this pair in Templeogue/Rathfarnham/Firhouse and three for everyone else in Tallaght. Paul Murphy, former MEP, will stand for the Socialist Party (I don't know what they are called any more). Labour have a candidate, but who cares?

Roscommon-South Leitrim


Here the vacancy is due to the European Parliamentary election of the radical Ming. Very socially libertarian, mildly populist, notable for his turbary rights advocacy, his long-term cannabis legalisation advocacy, and (more recently) his strongly anti-EU, anti-euro stance. Hard to politically classify other than Eurosceptic; he went far-left in the European Parliament but could as easily have shacked up with the Greens or Nigel Farage. Think Beppe Grillo, but limited to one constituency by the nature of STV.

After Roscommon and Carrick-on-Shannon, there are no towns with more than three thousand people. The suburbs of Athlone, Co. Westmeath in south Roscommon may be the single biggest urban area in the constituency. Very much the middle-Ireland of one's imagination - though note the increasing poverty in rural Leitrim and west Roscommon near Co. Mayo, where the land is stonier and farms are smaller, which is balanced by the professional profile of the outskirts of Athlone and Carrick-on-Shannon. Roscommon dominates the constituency in population terms; Leitrim, the smallest county in Ireland, was partitioned at recent general elections, leaving them with no representation in 2007-11, akin to anathema for one's county in the clientelist world of Irish politics!

Roscommon had been pushed around constituencies for years. Split between the two big parties, it was dominated by the Doherty-Leyden rivalry within Fianna Fáil from the 1970s to the late 1990s, whose vigorous, intra-party competition gave FF two seats until independents made a big breakthrough, first at local level in 1985 and then in the Dáil in 1989. Subsequently assigned to share a constituency with Longford. In my view, Longford-Roscommon was the worst constituency ever created in Ireland because the two counties are only connected by a pair of road bridges far from major urban centres. They both survived and now dwell with other partners. Leitrim, as mentioned, was partitioned North and South. Leitrim elected a Sinn Féin TD in the Sligo-dominated part in 2011 - anti-partition - coincidence?!?!?

2 Fine Gael, 1 independent at the last general election. One of the Fine Gael TDs quit the party over local hospital services and now hangs out in Lucinda Creighton's non-party parliamentary club for Fine Gael expellees. The winner of this by-election? The media are proclaiming it's Fianna Fáil, but who knows? I can't see why Sinn Féin should be ruled out so soon. There's also an independent turf-cutting candidate from Galway likely to stand. That was Ming's big issue here.

Carlow-Kilkenny


I included maps of Carlow-Kilkenny because it might have a by-election if Phil Hogan of Fine Gael is appointed to the Commission, though it would probably be in 2015, I think. The major population centres are the county towns of Kilkenny and Carlow and, to the south, the suburbs of Waterford. Kilkenny has pretty good farmland and the town itself (which would much rather you call it a city, thanks to its now-obsolete Royal Charter of 1609) has a nice castle, a couple of Michelin stars, and is generally well-kept and attractive. Carlow is a more typical Irish town, serving as a small commercial centre for the surrounding countryside.

Both Kilkenny and Carlow follow the usual Irish pattern of having a low social-class profile in the centre of the towns, higher in the peripheral countryside, then trailing off to more mixed or median levels as the rural influence grows. This could have something to do with towns being the destinations for dispossessed younger sons of small farmers in the old days of subsistence farming (i.e. before the 1970s), or maybe just small-town bigshots preferring spacious houses with gardens.

This area had above-average unionisation of farm and industrial labour and therefore was strong for the Labour Party since independence - not at all safe at Dáil level, but always within reach. The big farmers' factions of the 1920s/30s (Farmers' Party / National Centre) did well here, too, whereas the small farmers in the 1940s/50s didn't even stand. Like other 5-seaters, the effective threshold was low enough to let small-party candidates win seats as they became more competitive (Farmers in the 1920s, PDs in 1987, Greens in 2007). Last time, it elected 3 FG, 1 Lab, 1 FF. It was Fianna Fáil's strongest constituency in the country in vote terms, stronger than even the constituencies that elected two FF candidates, but county loyalties ensured Carlow FF voters transferred strongly to the Carlow Fine Gael candidate whom they elected, rather than his Kilkenny FF rival whom he defeated!

[ObserverIE]

Greatly appreciate the maps.

A couple of small notes:

Roscommon-South Leitrim


Here the vacancy is due to the European Parliamentary election of the radical Ming. Very socially libertarian, mildly populist, notable for his turbary rights advocacy, his long-term cannabis legalisation advocacy, and (more recently) his strongly anti-EU, anti-euro stance. Hard to politically classify other than Eurosceptic; he went far-left in the European Parliament but could as easily have shacked up with the Greens or Nigel Farage. Think Beppe Grillo, but limited to one constituency by the nature of STV.

Farage I think not; he was quite vocal on the topic after the election:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Any association with braying English nationalism isn't going to go down well in Ireland, especially not in emigration-hit peripheral Ireland.

Joining the Greens was always unlikely because of the enthusiasm of the local franchise for the same turbary restrictions mentioned.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The very red dot in the north of Roscommon is Arigna, traditionally a coal-mining area.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Sentiment about Longford-Roscommon seconded; but the new Sligo-Leitrim-Donegal-Cavan monstrosity will outrank it after the next election. For anyone unfamiliar with Irish geography, the southern, smooth, part of the Longford-Roscommon border is smooth because it runs through the middle of a large lake.

Define "major urban centre" in the context of rural Ireland - Clondra/Tarmonbarry is not far from Longford town (pop. 8,000) and some of mid-northeast Roscommon up as far as Rooskey would form part of its catchment area.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

More prosaically, the only Leitrim-based candidate in the constituency with the advantage of a SF vote in Sligo town to bolster him.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

SF are relatively weak in Roscommon - they have one councillor in Ballaghaderreen in the very north-west of the county but I think he's somewhat elderly. Their 2011 candidate is fairly impressive but is based in Leitrim (Aghavas, the uppermost reddish dot on the Longford-Leitrim border) which moves out of the constituency at the next election. SF suffered badly in both Roscommon and nearby Longford from the Ó Brádaigh split in the late 80s and have never fully recovered.

Ming was able to combine the turf-cutting issue with the closure of Roscommon Hospital's ER into a general narrative of rural neglect by a Dublin-centred political establishment (and that narrative still resonates). I'm not sure that Fitzmaurice (who I assume is the Galway candidate you mention) will be able to tap into it as articulately as Ming did.

[ObserverIE]

Other candidates named so far:

Dublin South West:

John Lahart (FF), a councillor for the area to be added to the constituency at the next election (currently in Dublin South) and a former aide to a FF TD.
Pamela Kearns (Lab), one of the fifty-two councillors left standing after the May Massacre.
Paul Murphy (SP), co-opted as an MEP when Joe Higgins was re-elected to the Dáil in 2011 until he lost his seat in May.

Roscommon-South Leitrim:

John McDermott (Hospital Action Committee), campaigning on the issue of the removal of ER and other services from the local hospital in Roscommon. This has been an issue locally for over 20 years, electing a TD (Tom Foxe) in 1989 and is relevant everywhere except the very north of Roscommon and Leitrim (where Sligo is the nearest hospital) and to a lesser extent in the south (where Ballinasloe - also potentially vulnerable to downgrading - is the nearest hospital). Stood in 2011 performing respectably but was overwhelmed for the independent vote by Ming.

Emmet Scanlon (Independent), a 20something former FG activist from mid-Roscommon who didn't renew his party membership this year according to himself. FG is currently as well-regarded as Ebola in mid and south Roscommon which may not be unrelated to his decision.

[EPG]

Dublin South-West and Roscommon-South Leitrim expected on 10 October. Carlow-Kilkenny is not yet vacant.

[ObserverIE]

More candidates:

Dublin South West:

Cathal King (SF), a councillor since 2009 in Tallaght South. His selection was something of a surprise, with the expectation having been that Máire Devine, elected in May in Tallaght Central, would be the candidate.

Roscommon-South Leitrim:

Maura Hopkins (FG), elected as a councillor for the first time in May in north Roscommon (the end of Roscommon where FG are least toxic). The local FG organisation apparently believe that she is a "lovely girl". I will resist the obvious Father Ted joke here.

John Kelly (Lab): Former independent councillor from Ballaghadereen who was enticed onto the Labour bandwagon before 2011 and has since been a somewhat semi-detached member of the Labour Senate group. Had threatened as late as last week not to stand over the perceived neglect of Roscommon Hospital by the current government but seems to have been persuaded to change his mind.

Gerry O'Boyle (Ind): A publican and former auctioneer from Castlerea who's running for something called "Land League West" representing people in mortgage arrears.

[EPG]

More candidates:

Dublin South West:

Cathal King (SF), a councillor since 2009 in Tallaght South. His selection was something of a surprise, with the expectation having been that Máire Devine, elected in May in Tallaght Central, would be the candidate.

The surprise was because King had refused nomination a few months ago by declaring that a woman should be nominated, clearly meaning Devine. That lasted until he was apparently urged by other SF members to run. I'm sure it's an old, old story from apparently-uncontested nomination battles around the world.

[ObserverIE]

More candidates:

Roscommon-South Leitrim:

Tom Crosby (Ind): ex-councillor and unsuccessful general election candidate in 2002. Originally FF but fell out with the local organisation in the late 90s following a heated disagreement with the then local kingpin, although the disagreement didn't prevent his daughter from standing as a FF candidate in the local elections in Dublin City in 2009.

Dublin South West:

Nicky Coules (SWP t/a PBP): Having helped to sink the Judean Popular FrontSP's Paul Murphy's chances of re-election to the European Parliament in May, the People's Front of JudaeaSWP are now running one of their local councillors against him in the by-election.

[ObserverIE]

Roscommon-South Leitrim by-election debate with all ten candidates on now on RTÉ's Prime Time.

Maura Hopkins (FG)
Ivan Connaughton (FF)
John Kelly (Lab)
Martin Kenny (SF)
John McDermott (Ind - Health Action)
Michael Fitzmaurice (Ind - Turfcutters)
Emmet Corcoran (Ind - ex-FG)
Tom Crosby (Ind - ex-FF)
Gerry O'Boyle (Ind - "Land League")
Des Guckian (Ind)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Bump.

The two by-elections (Dublin South West and Roscommon-South Leitrim) are tomorrow. Both are two-horse races with one horse very favoured: SF in the former and FF in the latter being chased respectively by the Socialist Party and an Independent who has been set up as the successor to the previous incumbent, Ming Flanagan.

[EPG]

There has been no opinion polling and very little journalistic reportage. I think it is fair to say no-one has a clue as to either result, or if they do, they aren't saying, beyond what we know about party strengths from the local elections, as summarised above.

[ObserverIE]

Early indications from Roscommon-South Leitrim put Connaughton (FF) marginally ahead of Fitzmaurice (Ind - Ming) but likely to be overtaken on transfers.



In Dublin South West, it seems to be close between King (SF) and Murphy (SP).

[ObserverIE]

Update from Dublin South West:

[YL]

Who of the leading two is less transfer-repellent?

[ObserverIE]

Who of the leading two is less transfer-repellent?

The FG-voting matrons of Templeogue will hold their noses and transfer to the privately-educated middle-class Trotskyist ahead of the dreadful working-class Shinner.

Latest update:

[ObserverIE]

Latest:

[ObserverIE]

Half-way mark in Dublin South West:



...and in Roscommon-South Leitrim

[ObserverIE]

62/98 in Dublin South West:

[EPG]

One could end up as a second by-election this year in a suburban Dublin constituency electing a Socialist TD (which in Ireland means an anti-tax protestor).

The other could be the defeat of rural hospital populism by rural turf-cutting and hospital populism.

The fun thing about Irish by-elections is that normally no-one has a clue what will happen, unlike the UK where they poll constituencies and take all the fun out of them.

[ObserverIE]

100% tally in Dublin South West:



McMahon is an ex-FGer (his father was a TD) who failed to get a nomination for the local elections, was elected as an independent, and was being supported by the FG dissidents in the Reform Alliance.

80% tally in Roscommon-South Leitrim:

[ObserverIE]

91% in Roscommon-South Leitrim

[ObserverIE]

94% in Roscommon-South Leitrim:

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Looks like Fitzmaurice and Murphy have got this.