AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[SnowLabrador]

Does Sinema have a chance in the primary? I'm worried that her incumbency might be too much to overcome.

[SnowLabrador]

Dang it.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1644404121267580929
https://twitter.com/byelin/status/1644404825503723521

Her goal isn't to win reelection. It's to split the vote so that Republicans flip the seat. If we somehow hold Montana and Ohio, but lose the Senate because of Sinema, I'm going to be furious.

[SnowLabrador]

How would Paul Gosar do?

It really depends on how much of the vote Sinema takes, and from whom.

[SnowLabrador]

Sinema's fundraising numbers (even though Gallego's are better) indicate she is very likely running for re-election.

Great, that means we'll lose the seat to Kari effing Lake.

[SnowLabrador]

Sinema has decent odds of winning if her opponents are Gallego and Lake. Very easy to paint the far-left vs far-right vs centrist approach in that situation. Its like catnip for white suburbanites.

LMAO I'm sorry what? This is straight up delusional. Also, Gallego in no universe is comparable to Lake.

Agreed. The only question is whether Sinema takes enough votes from Gallego to elect Lake. My bet is she will.

[SnowLabrador]

I didn't expect that, wow. Hopefully he beats Lake in the primary, he's an easier opponent for Gallego. Lake will win the primary, though, most likely.

[SnowLabrador]

Man, I wish Sinema weren’t running. She adds a layer of unpredictability to this race that we just don’t need. She might take more votes from the red team, but she also might not.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/elizacollins1/status/1707382813551690013?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

She has my complete and total endorsement. For the Republican nomination. No matter what Sinema does, this is good news for the Gallego campaign.

Be careful what you wish for.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1709569396782272712

Sinema could have had an easy path to renomination, without even a challenge, and be favored for the GE. She didn't have to be a AOC 2.0, she just needed to vote like Mark Kelly. Instead, she chose to throw all away for attention.

She's trying to throw the seat to Republicans in exchange for a nice, cushy lobbying gig after she leaves the Senate. That's why she's going to run.

[SnowLabrador]

I wouldn't say Lake is a strong candidate, it's more that Arizona isn't that blue of a state yet. Plus Masters was just atrocious.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1713010589029793853

Not a great quarter for an incumbent senator in a marquee race. The COH number is good but I think most of that was raised before she went independent.

I think she's more than likely to retire and live off her leftover campaign cash or start some foundation to keep her relevant. COH is not really that impressive when you figure she is not getting any super PAC helping her out. Both sides spent like $50M each last year in AZ.

If she's going to retire, why did she file to run for reelection?

[SnowLabrador]

Man Republicans are really blowing this one lol. A less crazy republican would be very competitive here. Lake has no chance

Lake has a very good chance if Sinema runs, which she will.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/Carrasquillo/status/1786366640822612283

Community events aren't a bad idea. I just hope this doesn't come across as culturally insensitive pandering.