What states do you define as the Rust Belt?
It's easy to define the former Confederate States as the triangle that includes Virginia in the northeast, Florida in the southeast, and Texas in the west. However relevant the Confederacy is in the overall heritage of the United States, a political party that casts off 160 electoral votes will have a difficult time winning. Sure, Coolidge won in 1924 without winning a single former-secessionist state, and big -- losing only those and Wisconsin to a third-party nominee. (The former Confederate states had only 136 electoral votes in 1924).
OK, the South is no longer a political monolith. Texas and Virginia straddle regions. Florida has become a microcosm of America.
We are all Florida Man... that's sobering.