I'm going against the conventional wisdom here, but I'm not sure if RCV will end up helping Murkowski. She will obviously get into the general, but she is in significant danger of being the 2nd elimination by RCV. A lot of 2nd place votes don't help if you can't get into the final 2. A lot depends on who the Democrats end up running, because Murkowski is going to need 1st place votes from a significant chunk of Dems. I think people underestimate how much Murkowski's base support has collapsed since 2016, and not just because of Trump.
100%. If there's a strong dem and a strong other republican I could easily see Murkowski coming in 3rd.
