Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Brittain33]

Neubauer is up by 5 points with 38% reporting on ddhq.

[Brittain33]

Once again, my Tuesday night involves following Limo around with plastic baggies to scoop up his 💩.

[Brittain33]

Statewide margin down to 3 with 55% in.

please explain to me how neubauer is going to win with all of dane and milwaukee in.

WOW is all in, too, and much of the territory out is in the 3rd district, like LaCrosse.

Doesn’t mean she’s certain to win but it’s not like the remaining territory is all rural death for Dems.

[Brittain33]

Hmmm. An apparent Neubauer over-performance in the driftless area has be reconsidering my call.

You don’t say.

[Brittain33]

Where's all the concern coming from? Aside from low turnout in Milwaukee, Neubauer seems to be doing fine, and should win barring a blowout in the Driftless.

Her lead is down to 20,000 in ddhq. I’d rather be her than him, but it’s just too close to feel comfortable.

[Brittain33]

How much of WOW is yet to report

JSOnline, which is running a bit behind ddhq, has literally all precincts except 1 in Waukesha. This is a rural fight now.

[Brittain33]

Reminder that while we have 1/3 of the precincts out on ddhq, there were 1 million votes cast in 2018 and already 915,000 cast this year.

[Brittain33]

1.4% margin with 70% in. This is going to be close.

90+% of the votes are in, though.

Hagedorn needs to make up 15,000 votes out of a maximum of 100,000 left, probably less than that.

[Brittain33]

1.4% margin with 70% in. This is going to be close.

90+% of the votes are in, though.

Hagedorn needs to make up 15,000 votes out of a maximum of 100,000 left, probably less than that.

Fair. Still not comfortable calling a favorite here.

Oh, I agree, I feel a little better for Neubauer but it’s too close. Especially if there’s an error or some unexpected batch of votes somewhere.

[Brittain33]

Neubauer leads by 11,000 out of 967,000 votes with 76% of precincts in.

997,000 votes were cast in Dallet-Screnock.

[Brittain33]

Neubauer leads by 11,000 out of 967,000 votes with 76% of precincts in.

997,000 votes were cast in Dallet-Screnock.

Are we sure Neubauer is still favored?

Not since the margin dropped to 4,000. I don’t know anything.

[Brittain33]

Bounced back up to 5500.

[Brittain33]

1.4% margin with 70% in. This is going to be close.

90+% of the votes are in, though.

Hagedorn needs to make up 15,000 votes out of a maximum of 100,000 left, probably less than that.

Ron Howard: there were 300,000 votes left.