Florida vs. New York

[Tender Branson]

If the growth pattern for both states from last year are steady, then FL passes NY at the end of January/beginning of February. This year. Better said, in 3-4 weeks.

[Tender Branson]

The gap was 98.000 on July 1, 2013.

FL is growing at a pace of 19.300 every month.

NY is growing at a pace of 6.300 every month.

FL gains 13.000 every month on NY.

98/13 => 7.5 months.

FL will overtake NY in Mid-February.

[Tender Branson]

There's also an outside chance that FL overtook NY already in late 2013.

But for this, NY would have needed slower growth and FL faster growth than usual.

[Tender Branson]

There's also an outside chance that FL overtook NY already in late 2013.

Damn! I forgot to enter this option.

I would rate the chances of this about 20-30% only.

For example, if FL growth picked up to 300.000 (25.000 a month) and NY steady at 75.000 (6.000 a month), FL would have passed NY already in early December 2013.

But Q1 2014 is the most likely.

[Tender Branson]

Also, NC will pass MI in the next few weeks.

[Tender Branson]

*bump*

Do we know when this happened?

If we get the new figures for Mid-2014, it's pretty easy to calculate the exact date.

But I still stick with Q1, 2014 for now (read the beginning of the thread).