Alberta Election 2019

[Tintrlvr]

For some reason it baffles me that there's a riding in Canada with a whopping 86% minority electorate. Or that there are 8 districts where they are a majority!

This is just in Alberta, too.

But Canada I believe has a slightly higher percentage of non-white people than the U.S. does (this is including First Nations, etc., who strictly speaking are not included in "Visible Minorities") and way more of course than anywhere in Europe. As a result, it's not surprising that there are many ridings that are majority VM/non-white. The UK has a much lower non-white population (around 13% in the UK vs. 27% in Canada) but also has a number of overwhelmingly non-white constituencies.

[mileslunn]

For some reason it baffles me that there's a riding in Canada with a whopping 86% minority electorate. Or that there are 8 districts where they are a majority!

This is just in Alberta, too.

But Canada I believe has a slightly higher percentage of non-white people than the U.S. does (this is including First Nations, etc., who strictly speaking are not included in "Visible Minorities") and way more of course than anywhere in Europe. As a result, it's not surprising that there are many ridings that are majority VM/non-white. The UK has a much lower non-white population (around 13% in the UK vs. 27% in Canada) but also has a number of overwhelmingly non-white constituencies.

Actually US depends on definition, if you count all Hispanics as non-white, US has a lower white population than Canada, but if you include Hispanics who are white, then I believe that is correct.  To be fair most Hispanics are mixed race to some degree and Hispanic is more heritage as opposed to any particular race despite the stereotypical image, one can be blonde hair and blue eyed Hispanic and likewise Black Hispanic.

As for Europe exactly, there are UK constituencies that are over 80% non-white so makes sense you would see some in Canada.  I imagine in France and Germany there are majority non-white constituencies and Netherlands, Sweden, and Belgium probably would if they divided theirs into constituencies of 100,000 people. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Hispanics are considered visible minorities on the Canadian Census (if they select Latin American).

[Njall]

For some reason it baffles me that there's a riding in Canada with a whopping 86% minority electorate. Or that there are 8 districts where they are a majority!

Our big cities aren't that White.

Indeed. Edmonton is actually 42.6% nonwhite (visible minority + aboriginal identity) and Calgary is 39.1% nonwhite. Even in Red Deer, nearly one out of every four residents is nonwhite.

Also, FWIW, when you include aboriginal residents in the count of minorities, you get 11 minority-majority districts (the 8 above plus Lesser Slave Lake, Edmonton-South, and Calgary-East). Another, Edmonton-Decore, was over 48% VM+Aboriginal at the 2016 census and may have surpassed 50% with population changes since.

[Lord Halifax]

What was the non-white share of the Canadian population back  in 2000?

[Njall]

What was the non-white share of the Canadian population back  in 2000?

According to the 2001 census, approximately 83.3%.

[mileslunn]

Hispanics are considered visible minorities on the Canadian Census (if they select Latin American).

True enough, although Latin American really can be any race as it is a melting pot of people from different parts of the world, only reason it is a separate category is most from that region tend to be mixed race.  Interestingly enough the US classifies people of Middle Eastern and North African ancestry as white whereas in Canada they are classified as visible minority.  If you were to use the US definition of white, countries like France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, and Sweden would probably be over 95% white while using the Canadian definition all of them are probably over 10% maybe as high as 15% non-white.  UK it wouldn't make as much of a difference as most non-whites there are South Asians or Black and Canada only a minor difference as Arabs and West Asians put together are about 1.5% of the population.

[mileslunn]

Kenney promises to drop corporate tax rates from 12% to 8%.  While it may not be the most pertinent issue not sure this is a huge vote getter.  Trickle down economics was very in vogue in the 80s and 90s but has sort of fallen out so while not your Hudak moment of firing 100,000 civil servants, I cannot help but think the NDP will probably use this against him and on this policy more will probably side with the NDP.  A cut to 10% or 11% would have faced some opposition, but not as much as this.  I think regardless of what one's views are on economics, the idea of cutting taxes for corporations and the rich and expecting more money is not a very popular policy and in fact Notley's scrapping the flat tax and raising corporate taxes by 2% had over 60% support in 2015 so good or bad idea, I cannot see this helping the UCP politically.  Although probably not fatal on its own, but if the numbers in his platform don't add up or the NDP can get several economists to blow it apart, I think things could get a lot more competitive.  Not sure if it will be enough for the NDP to win, but at least it creates an opening even if very narrow.

[Lachi]

https://twitter.com/660NEWS/status/1102732191992176640

Mandel has been vindicated.

[RogueBeaver]

Election call might be delayed for a spring session.

[Njall]

Is Brian Jean planning a comeback? Who knows! He might not even know!

Never a dull moment in Alberta politics.

[mileslunn]

I always expected the election to be held on May 31st anyways.  With the NDP's weak poll numbers better to wait and hope something trips Kenney up.  As for Brian Jean will be interesting what he announces too.  On the health care bill, will be interesting the details but the fact doing it now does kind of smack of desperation.  While privatizing health care is very unpopular, I don't think allowing private delivery or even private payment for diagnostic services is as controversial as it was 20 years ago.  Many still oppose it, but the polls I've seen show the public is more split on it rather than against it.  That being said if NDP has concluded they are going to lose, this would be very popular amongst their base so might help firm up their core support so they at least form a strong opposition.

[Njall]

The UCP's been feeling the heat lately, for a very particular reason. Here's the latest from MacLeans.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/kieranleavitt/status/1108032331917332480

[mileslunn]

Ipsos out with numbers from starting line and UCP well in front as expected but not an insurmountable lead.

UCP 53%
NDP 35%
Alberta Party 7%
Liberals 7%

[136or142]

https://twitter.com/kieranleavitt/status/1108032331917332480

Will the students still be in university?

The NDP probably should have released a budget first, although I can understand not passing one, as that would 'bind the next government.'

[Lachi]

After the sh**tshow that the UCP has had over the last few days, it'll be interesting to watch what happens to the UCP vote, considering that poll didn't really cover much if any of this period.

Notely couldn't have had a better opportunity to call this election even if she tried, as this will keep going throughout the campaign.

[DC Al Fine]

The UCP's been feeling the heat lately, for a very particular reason. Here's the latest from MacLeans.

Kind of reminds me of Watergate because both scandals seem so foolish and unnecessary. Jean didn't have much (if any) chance of winning even before the kamikaze.

[136or142]

ThinkHQInc poll
https://twitter.com/CTVMarkVillani/status/1108342170505887745


The NDP has done better with ThinkHQ polls than with Mainstreet Research polls, so, I don't know what to make of that.

However, it does seem possible the NDP could end up with a (slightly) higher share of the vote than they received in 2015.  Of course, were that to happen, they'd almost certainly still be defeated.

The main difference between this survey and the recent Ipsos survey is Edmonton.  The Ipsos survey had the NDP ahead 44-43%.  I believe that was for just the city of Edmonton.  This survey has the NDP ahead 52-34% for the entire Edmonton metropolitan area.  The NDP won all the Edmonton suburbs in 2015, but mostly by much tighter margins than the ridings in the city of Edmonton.  The only suburban Edmonton ridings where the NDP dominated in 2015 were the older suburbs of Sherwood Park and St. Albert (even though Sherwood Park is technically a 'hamlet' and not a city.)

[mileslunn]

ThinkHQInc poll
https://twitter.com/CTVMarkVillani/status/1108342170505887745


The NDP has done better with ThinkHQ polls than with Mainstreet Research polls, so, I don't know what to make of that.

However, it does seem possible the NDP could end up with a (slightly) higher share of the vote than they received in 2015.  Of course, were that to happen, they'd almost certainly still be defeated.

The main difference between this survey and the recent Ipsos survey is Edmonton.  The Ipsos survey had the NDP ahead 44-43%.  I believe that was for just the city of Edmonton.  This survey has the NDP ahead 52-34% for the entire Edmonton metropolitan area.  The NDP won all the Edmonton suburbs in 2015, but mostly by much tighter margins than the ridings in the city of Edmonton.  The only suburban Edmonton ridings where the NDP dominated in 2015 were the older suburbs of Sherwood Park and St. Albert (even though Sherwood Park is technically a 'hamlet' and not a city.)

UCP lead in Calgary is probably biggest barrier to the NDP as they need to win there or be competitive there to form government.  It does though seem no matter which poll you look at most 2015 NDP voters are either in the NDP or undecided column.   Their big problem is vast majority who voted PC or Wildrose in 2015 favour UCP so it woud be 52% to 41% if people voted the same as 2015 and UCP winning a pretty big majority, around 65 seats while NDP sweeps Edmonton but wins only a few outside.  Notley really needs to portray Kenney as too right wing and hope enough red Tories from the PCs switch over, but my guess is if they do switch it will be to the Alberta Party not NDP.  So she needs the Alberta Party to get in at least mid teens and all their gains from the UCP, none from NDP.

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet will have a poll out tomorrow morning, 10 PM (Alberta time) for subscribers only.  Hints are it will be a big shocker although with the recent news a much closer race or even tied wouldn't totally shock me.  Solid NDP lead would though.

[adma]

And...it's 50.7% UCP (-1.6 from Jan), 37.8 NDP (+9.3 from Jan), nobody else above 5%.

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ndp-gain-nine-points-since-january-but-ucp-lead/

Pretty nothingburger for a "shocker", unless you subscribed to the conventional wisdom that the NDP was due for a total pummelling because, 2015 aside, anything north of 30% for them in Alta is "unnatural".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ultimate banter outcome: fluke NDP re-election despite trailing significantly in the pv due to massive, useless UCP majorities in the countryside.

[136or142]

Ultimate banter outcome: fluke NDP re-election despite trailing significantly in the pv due to massive, useless UCP majorities in the countryside.

Not likely, Calgary and Edmonton Metropolitan Areas are roughly 2/3 of the ridings.  Only about 1/4 of the ridings are rural.  (The remainder are the smaller cities: Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Red Deer, Grande Prairie and Fort McMurray.)  However, as a bit of confusion, one of the ridings including the name Medicine Hat, and one including the name Grande Prairie are largely rural.  Not sure about Fort McMurray or one of the Airdrie ridings (Calgary suburb) or one of the St Albert ridings (Edmonton suburb.)

[136or142]

And...it's 50.7% UCP (-1.6 from Jan), 37.8 NDP (+9.3 from Jan), nobody else above 5%.

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ndp-gain-nine-points-since-january-but-ucp-lead/

Pretty nothingburger for a "shocker", unless you subscribed to the conventional wisdom that the NDP was due for a total pummelling because, 2015 aside, anything north of 30% for them in Alta is "unnatural".

The topline numbers are pretty much the same as the ThinkHQ poll, but the polls are quite different.

ThinkHQ Edmonton (CMA)
UCP: 34%
NDP: 52%

Mainstreet Edmonton
UCP: 39%
NDP: 38%

ThinkHQ Calgary (CMA)
UCP: 54
NDP: 33

Mainstreet Calgary
UCP: 45
NDP: 36