2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Non Swing Voter]

Dems have roughly a 120,000 vote lead in Florida as of now.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

Do independents generally lean a certain way in FL?

Should also note, in that map it looks like almost half of all independent voters are coming from 3 counties: Palm Beach, Broward, and Hillsborough.  So I'd guess the locked in independent voters are heavily Democratic right now.

[republican1993]

so are republicans expected to do well with early in person in florida starting in a few weeks and the early mail in ballot advantage is for the dems (asking for florida but also the other states as well)?

[Gass3268]

Dems have roughly a 120,000 vote lead in Florida as of now.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

Do independents generally lean a certain way in FL?

Typically more Democratic as they are younger are more likely to be non-Cuban Hispanic.

[Non Swing Voter]

so are republicans expected to do well with early in person in florida starting in a few weeks and the early mail in ballot advantage is for the dems (asking for florida but also the other states as well)?

hard to say.  Republicans usually do better in mail ballots while Democrats do better in early in person voting.  But covid has mixed everything up.  I'd still expect Democrats to do better in early in person voting.  Republicans really need to turnout massively on Election Day I think.

[Minnesota Mike]

Early/Absentee voting in Florida in 2016.

https://dos.myflorida.com/media/697363/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2016-gen.pdf

Voted By Mail:

Dem- 1,049,809
Rep- 1,108,053
Other- 574,213

Voted Early in Person:

Dem- 1,580,003
Rep- 1,425,309
Other- 869,617

Mail in Ballot sent but not returned.

Dem- 265,120
Rep- 201,144
Other- 149,621

The number of mail in ballot requests has skyrocketed this year especially among Democrats. About 5.3 mill ballot requests total with Dem requests outpacing Rep requests by 765K. The thing to watch is the ballot return rate, in 2016 Democrats actually requested more ballots but Republicans returned more. So far (very early) so good for Democrats as they have returned a higher percentage of their ballots. Democrats probably need to be 600-700K ahead in Absentee/Early voting to withstand the Republicans advantage on election day.

[republican1993]

so are republicans expected to do well with early in person in florida starting in a few weeks and the early mail in ballot advantage is for the dems (asking for florida but also the other states as well)?

hard to say.  Republicans usually do better in mail ballots while Democrats do better in early in person voting.  But covid has mixed everything up.  I'd still expect Democrats to do better in early in person voting.  Republicans really need to turnout massively on Election Day I think.

Yeah that's what i was thinking the republicans did well in 2016 with the mail in but dems always run up the score in early voting.. i guess we will see over the next weeks - if repbs r returning about the same as dems (as it is now) looks good for them even if they are only down ~100k

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I know it’s still super early, but the Georgia votes look very good for Biden so far. The whites/black number is roughly 56-34, which is much better than it was in 2018 when Abrams’ only lost by 1%. On top of that, nearly half of the Latino/Asian votes banked thus far did not vote in 2016/2018. Dare I say that it might be “just there yet”?

[republican1993]

I know it’s still super early, but the Georgia votes look very good for Biden so far. The whites/black number is roughly 56-34, which is much better than it was in 2018 when Abrams’ only lost by 1%. On top of that, nearly half of the Latino/Asian votes banked thus far did not vote in 2016/2018. Dare I say that it might be “just there yet”?

still early but something to look out for as we get closer to november

[republican1993]

On twitter someone said dems needs to be up by ~550k votes in early mail in to win the state or be competitive at least - does this sound right?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I know it’s still super early, but the Georgia votes look very good for Biden so far. The whites/black number is roughly 56-34, which is much better than it was in 2018 when Abrams’ only lost by 1%. On top of that, nearly half of the Latino/Asian votes banked thus far did not vote in 2016/2018. Dare I say that it might be “just there yet”?

One thing to keep in mind that the initial flood of absentee ballots hasn't even fully gone out in Georgia, let alone been returned.  We just got our ballots in Forsyth County yesterday, even though they were requested on the portal 8/28 and "issued" on 9/18.  I also heard that Gwinnett has mailed less than half of its ballots so far (it has a unique issue: larger envelopes that required a special printer because they are required to be printed in both English and Spanish -- the only county in Georgia with such a requirement.)

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

On twitter someone said dems needs to be up by ~550k votes in early mail in to win the state or be competitive at least - does this sound right?

If you’re talking about Florida, then yes, I’ve seen the 500-700k vote advantage floated multiple places, and I see no reason to disagree with that. Republicans will turn out in full force on Election Day, so it is up to Dems to get as many infrequent voters banked away as possible to counteract that.

[Devout Centrist]

On twitter someone said dems needs to be up by ~550k votes in early mail in to win the state or be competitive at least - does this sound right?

Florida D's are hoping for a 600k+ edge. The assumption is that Republicans will win the election day vote 70-30.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I know it’s still super early, but the Georgia votes look very good for Biden so far. The whites/black number is roughly 56-34, which is much better than it was in 2018 when Abrams’ only lost by 1%. On top of that, nearly half of the Latino/Asian votes banked thus far did not vote in 2016/2018. Dare I say that it might be “just there yet”?

One thing to keep in mind that the initial flood of absentee ballots hasn't even fully gone out in Georgia, let alone been returned.  We just got our ballots in Forsyth County yesterday, even though they were requested on the portal 8/28 and "issued" on 9/18.  I also heard that Gwinnett has mailed less than half of its ballots so far (it has a unique issue: larger envelopes that required a special printer because they are required to be printed in both English and Spanish -- the only county in Georgia with such a requirement.)

That would be even better for Biden than these early numbers point to then.

Biden needs to win Gwinnett by around 20% and Cobb by 15% I think to have better than even odds. I think that is entirely doable. Also, getting 30% in your own Forsyth sounds doable based on the primary.

[republican1993]

On twitter someone said dems needs to be up by ~550k votes in early mail in to win the state or be competitive at least - does this sound right?

If you’re talking about Florida, then yes, I’ve seen the 500-700k vote advantage floated multiple places, and I see no reason to disagree with that. Republicans will turn out in full force on Election Day, so it is up to Dems to get as many infrequent voters banked away as possible to counteract that.

got it thank you! yes i meant florida 550k is a high number but puts a lot of pressure on repubs to come out on election day and who knows how covid will be in november when things are gradually getting worse...

[Non Swing Voter]

Seems like Atlanta votes haven't started trickling in either.  Not sure if that impacts the Georgia analysis above.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Seems like Atlanta votes haven't started trickling in either.  Not sure if that impacts the Georgia analysis above.

The 200k votes already banked are a very Biden-friendly looking cohort, so presumably the missing metro Atlanta votes would only exacerbate that.

[republican1993]

We also can't overexamine the Georgia Data it's going to be very pro-dem so the white vote will be a bit lower than expectations because republicans will be out on election day.

2016 exit polls had 30% with black vote in GA so 33% is okay without ATL not in yet, i guess if the black vote gets to 36/37 that's good going into election day.

[Non Swing Voter]

Seems like Atlanta votes haven't started trickling in either.  Not sure if that impacts the Georgia analysis above.

The 200k votes already banked are a very Biden-friendly looking cohort, so presumably the missing metro Atlanta votes would only exacerbate that.

That's what I was thinking.  I guess 200k is a fairly low number, but signs point to Georgia really being a battleground this year, possibly moreso than NC (as many here predicted).  Dems should really consider a massive investment in Georgia.  Two senate seats come along with this prize.

[Non Swing Voter]

We also can't overexamine the Georgia Data it's going to be very pro-dem so the white vote will be a bit lower than expectations because republicans will be out on election day.

2016 exit polls had 30% with black vote in GA so 33% is okay without ATL not in yet, i guess if the black vote gets to 36/37 that's good going into election day.

Wasn't 2016 basically 40% minority IIRC?  Like 30% Black 10% Asian/Hispanic/Other.  Seems to me if it was a 5 point race and Black goes up to 33% and the others go up to say 12% this is going to be a nail biter.  Especially because the white vote might shift slightly in Biden's favor too.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Seems like Atlanta votes haven't started trickling in either.  Not sure if that impacts the Georgia analysis above.

The 200k votes already banked are a very Biden-friendly looking cohort, so presumably the missing metro Atlanta votes would only exacerbate that.

That's what I was thinking.  I guess 200k is a fairly low number, but signs point to Georgia really being a battleground this year, possibly moreso than NC (as many here predicted).  Dems should really consider a massive investment in Georgia.  Two senate seats come along with this prize.

I think Dems and the Biden campaign finally got their heads out of their asses and are investing heavily there now

[republican1993]

We also can't overexamine the Georgia Data it's going to be very pro-dem so the white vote will be a bit lower than expectations because republicans will be out on election day.

2016 exit polls had 30% with black vote in GA so 33% is okay without ATL not in yet, i guess if the black vote gets to 36/37 that's good going into election day.

Wasn't 2016 basically 40% minority IIRC?  Like 30% Black 10% Asian/Hispanic/Other.  Seems to me if it was a 5 point race and Black goes up to 33% and the others go up to say 12% this is going to be a nail biter.  Especially because the white vote might shift slightly in Biden's favor too.

yup i can see it being a nailbiter, or 1-2 point trump/biden win. the electorate was 60% white and 40% non-white in 2016, so it will be interesting to see how things trend go

[Rep Jessica]

Andrew Bond
@AndrewBond3
·
14m
Amazing how many ballots have come in so far today in FL. 538K (3.7% turnout) in this morning was 462K.  So 76K in so far today. I could see FL hitting 1M returned by Wednesday. Still under 1% in Brevard, Clay, Hernando, Miami, Orange, Pinellas, Polk, Santa Rosa, Seminole.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

[republican1993]

Andrew Bond
@AndrewBond3
·
14m
Amazing how many ballots have come in so far today in FL. 538K (3.7% turnout) in this morning was 462K.  So 76K in so far today. I could see FL hitting 1M returned by Wednesday. Still under 1% in Brevard, Clay, Hernando, Miami, Orange, Pinellas, Polk, Santa Rosa, Seminole.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Looks like dems are at 2016 levels or a bit lower in dem % compared to clinton from early observation -

Hillsborough - 51% clinton and in this data has dem at 52% 2020
Palm Beach - 56% clinton 61% dem 2020 (i'm sure this will drop once election day comes in so prob 56%-58% in 2020 or so)
Broward - 66% clinton 63% dem 2020
Osceola - 60% clinton 55% dem 2020 (heavily hispanic county)

curious how it will be when we get more data within the next two weeks.

[Non Swing Voter]

Andrew Bond
@AndrewBond3
·
14m
Amazing how many ballots have come in so far today in FL. 538K (3.7% turnout) in this morning was 462K.  So 76K in so far today. I could see FL hitting 1M returned by Wednesday. Still under 1% in Brevard, Clay, Hernando, Miami, Orange, Pinellas, Polk, Santa Rosa, Seminole.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Looks like dems are at 2016 levels or a bit lower in dem % compared to clinton from early observation -

Hillsborough - 51% clinton and in this data has dem at 52% 2020
Palm Beach - 56% clinton 61% dem 2020 (i'm sure this will drop once election day comes in so prob 56%-58% in 2020 or so)
Broward - 66% clinton 63% dem 2020
Osceola - 60% clinton 55% dem 2020 (heavily hispanic county)

curious how it will be when we get more data within the next two weeks.

I'm looking at turnout too.  I am curious what kind of turnout we will get in three areas: South Florida, the Panhandle, and Orange County + surrounding counties. 

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Andrew Bond
@AndrewBond3
·
14m
Amazing how many ballots have come in so far today in FL. 538K (3.7% turnout) in this morning was 462K.  So 76K in so far today. I could see FL hitting 1M returned by Wednesday. Still under 1% in Brevard, Clay, Hernando, Miami, Orange, Pinellas, Polk, Santa Rosa, Seminole.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Looks like dems are at 2016 levels or a bit lower in dem % compared to clinton from early observation -

Hillsborough - 51% clinton and in this data has dem at 52% 2020
Palm Beach - 56% clinton 61% dem 2020 (i'm sure this will drop once election day comes in so prob 56%-58% in 2020 or so)
Broward - 66% clinton 63% dem 2020
Osceola - 60% clinton 55% dem 2020 (heavily hispanic county)

curious how it will be when we get more data within the next two weeks.

Not sure I understand—Dems are turning in their ballots so far at greater rates than Republicans are. Your analysis also doesn’t include how independents vote, so comparing D returns to Clinton’s percentage is very misleading