Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[Јas]

Given Ireland is the land of STV, is there any advantage from being the largest party in terms of getting the Taoiseach seat?  Is  FG-FF grand alliance destined to have a FG Taoiseach then ?

There is no constitutional or legal barrier to the Taoiseach not being from the largest party in the coalition. The Taoiseach is simply whoever the majority of the Dáil elect to be Taoiseach.

It has, to date, never happened though. The closest situation though was 1948 when a multi-party anti-FF coalition came together, but the FG leader was not elected Taoiseach as he was unacceptable to the other members of the coalition. Instead another senior FG figure was acceptable and got the job.

[Јas]

I have a questions which I am sorry if had been answered earlier in the thread:  Did FG and LAB have an alliance agreement in the election where they will ask their supporters to mark the other party on their list right after the party they support? This way on the list FG voters would put LAB candidates right after the FG candidates and vice versa.

Informally, yes.

[Vosem]

How likely are AAA-PBP to split back into their constituent parts after the election? Alternatively, how likely are they to merge permanently? In fact, what are the differences between them?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

How likely are AAA-PBP to split back into their constituent parts after the election? Alternatively, how likely are they to merge permanently? In fact, what are the differences between them?

1) Extremely likely, they have before

2) Too many obstacles of personality and organization for that

3) They belong to different socialist 'internationals' and the PBP is a front name for the Socialist Workers Party (SWP) a group famous for entryism and trying to take over organizations.

[YL]

Kerry, 5 seater, quota 13213, count 10.

M. Healy-Rae (Ind) elected
D. Healy-Rae (Ind) elected
Griffin (FG) 12545
Ferris (SF) 12184
Brassil (FF) 11955
Deenihan (FG) 7849
Spring (Lab) 6139 and out

This looks pretty hopeless for Deenihan.  So presumably 2 H-R, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF.

[YL]

Longford-Westmeath, 4 seater, quota 11056, count 11

Troy (FF) elected
Moran (Ind Alliance) 9244
Burke (FG) 7251
Hogan (SF) 6110
Penrose (Lab) 6041
Bannon (FG) 5436
Gerety-Quinn (FF) 4764
Morgan (Ind Alliance) 4339 and out

Does Penrose have a chance here?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Antonio the Sixth]

Based on the remaining constituencies, it seems like the range of possible outcomes is something like that:

FG 49-52
FF 40-43
SF 20-26
Ind 20-22
Lab 6-8

[DC Al Fine]

A few coalition related questions. Apologies if these have been addressed already and I missed them:

1) Which parties are "untouchables" when it comes to coalition making?

2) I assume a FF-FG grand coalition would be electorally disastrous for both parties?

3) Are the independents' leanings known? Does the high number of them favour a particular party?

[YL]

Dublin Bay North, 5 seater, quota 12271, count 10

Bruton (FG) elected
Haughey (FF) 9311
Ó Ríordáin (Lab) 7299
McGrath (Ind Alliance) 6828
Lyons (AAA-PBP) 6682
Broughan (Ind) 6583
Power (Ind) 6237
Mitchell (SF) 5573
O'Callaghan (SD) 4587
Heney (FF) 3943
MacDonncha (SF) 3850 and out

This seems hard to call.  Mitchell could well go from eighth to third on the next count.

[YL]

Sligo-Leitrim, 4 seater, quota 12468, count 13

Kenny (SF) 14066 and elected
MacSharry (FF) 13227 and elected
McLoughlin (FG) 10529
Reynolds (FG) 10177
Scanlon (FF) 9554

The top two both have surpluses to transfer, which might well give Scanlon the advantage.

[Јas]

Updated Projection:

Constituency	FG	FF	SF	Lab	Other	Notes
Carlow-Kilk	2	2	1			RESULT
Cavan-Mon	1	2	1			RESULT
Clare	2	1			1 Ind (Harty)	RESULT
Cork E	1	1	1	1		RESULT
Cork NC	1	1	1		1 AAA-PBP	RESULT
Cork NW	1	2				RESULT
Cork SC	1	2	1			RESULT
Cork SW	1	1			1 Ind (Collins)	RESULT
Donegal	1	2	1		1 Ind (Pringle)	Last seat is still too close to call between Pringle and SF
Dub Bay N	1	1	1		1 IndAlliance (McGrath); 1 Ind4Change (Broughan)	Potentially subject to substantial change
Dub Bay S	2	1			1 Green	RESULT
Dub Central	1		1		1 Ind (O’Sullivan)	RESULT
Dub Fingal	1	1	1	1	1 Ind4Change (Daly)	RESULT
Dub MW	1	1	1		1 AAA-PBP	RESULT
Dub NW	1		1		1 SocDem	RESULT
Dub Rathdown	1				1 IndAlliance (Ross); 1 Green	RESULT
Dub SC	1		1		1 AAA-PBP, 1 Ind4Change (Collins)	Subject to Recount
Dub SW	1	1	1		1 AAA-PBP; 1 Ind (Zappone)	RESULT
Dub W	1	1		1	1 AAA-PBP	RESULT
Dún Laoghaire	3				1 AAA-PBP	RESULT
Galway E	1	1			1 IndAlliance (Canney)	RESULT
Galway W	2	1			2 Inds (Grealish, Connolly)	RESULT
Kerry	1	1	1		2 Inds (Healy-Raes)
Kildare N	1	2			1 SocDem	RESULT
Kildare S	1	2				RESULT
Laois	1	1	1			RESULT
Limerick City	1	1	1	1		RESULT
Limerick Co	2	1				RESULT
L'ford-W'Meath	1	1	1		1 IndAlliance (Moran)	Last seat too close to call between SF and FG
Louth	2	1	2			RESULT
Mayo	2	2				RESULT
Meath E	2	1				RESULT
Meath W	1	1	1			RESULT
Offaly	1	1	1			RESULT
Roscommon-Gal		1			1 Ind (Naughten); 1 IndAlliance (Fitzmaurice)	RESULT
Sligo-Leitrim	1	2	1			Last seat too close to call between FF and FG
Tipperary		1		1	1 WUAG, 2 Inds (Lowry, McGrath)	RESULT
Waterford	1	1	1		1 IndAlliance (Halligan)	RESULT
Wexford	2	1		1	1 Ind4Change (Wallace)	Last seat too close to call between FG and SF - Recount Monday
Wicklow	2	1	1		1 SocDem	RESULT
TOTAL	50	44	24	6	34

Totals
50 Fine Gael
44 Fianna Fáil
24 Sinn Féin
  6 Labour
  6 AAA-PBP
  6 Independent Alliance 
  4 Independents 4 Change
  3 Social Democrats
  2 Green
  1 WUAG
  0 Renua
12 Independents

158 Total

[YL]

Longford-Westmeath, 4 seater, quota 11056, count 11

Troy (FF) elected
Moran (Ind Alliance) 9244
Burke (FG) 7251
Hogan (SF) 6110
Penrose (Lab) 6041
Bannon (FG) 5436
Gerety-Quinn (FF) 4764
Morgan (Ind Alliance) 4339 and out

Does Penrose have a chance here?

Count 12

Moran 10108
Burke 7633
Hogan 6643
Penrose 6360
Bannon 5955
Gerety-Quinn 5917 and out

Another close elimination, so possibly another recount.

[DC Al Fine]

Thanks for the answers. One other question just for fun: which politician/party is equivalent to Sanders/Paul? (i.e. They have a lot of young, loud supporters and do much better on the internet than in real life?)

[warandwar]

How likely are AAA-PBP to split back into their constituent parts after the election? Alternatively, how likely are they to merge permanently? In fact, what are the differences between them?

1) Extremely likely, they have before

2) Too many obstacles of personality and organization for that

3) They belong to different socialist 'internationals' and the PBP is a front name for the Socialist Workers Party (SWP) a group famous for entryism and trying to take over organizations.

To add a bit more, the CWI (SP's international, of which I am a former member) had a big fight in the 90s over entryism (it was Militant's international) and ended up pretty much denouncing the practice.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Based on the remaining constituencies, it seems like the range of possible outcomes is something like that:

FG 49-52
FF 40-43
SF 20-26
Ind 20-22
Lab 6-8

FG 49-52
FF 43-45
SF 22-24
Ind 22-24
Lab 6-8

[Јas]

Thanks for the answers. One other question just for fun: which politician/party is equivalent to Sanders/Paul? (i.e. They have a lot of young, loud supporters and do much better on the internet than in real life?)

Nobody springs to mind.


As an addendum to my previous post, I'd note that 5 years ago - without any deals or offers - Grealish, Lowry, Healy-Rae, and Mattie McGrath all voted in favour of Kenny for Taoiseach.

[Јas]

Cabinet Ministers who have lost their seats:

James Reilly (FG)   Minister for Children and Youth Affairs
Alex White (L)        Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources


Junior Ministers who have lost their seats:

Tom Hayes (FG)       Minister of State for Food, Horticulture and Food Safety
Gerald Nash (L)       Minister of State for Business and Employment
Jimmy Deenihan (FG)   Minister of State for the Diaspora
Kathleen Lynch (L)    Minister of State for Primary Care, Mental Health and Disability
Kevin Humphreys (L)    Minister of State for Employment, Community and Social Support
Paudie Coffey (FG)    Minister of State for Housing, Planning and Co-ordination
Ann Phelan (L)       Minister of State for Rural Economic Development and Rural Transport

[Јas]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0228/771409-labour-joan-burton/

[RodPresident]

Being junior party in coalition in Ireland is almost a suicide... Then this is a potato that everybody wants to throw away. Examples don't lack... Clann na Poblachta, Labour, Progressive Democrats, Greens are only a taste of that.
FF-SF would need a dozen of seats to be viable. Then, there are a lot of road maps... Labour, Social Democrats, Alphabet Left, I4C, IA, GP, Jackie's Childs...

[Јas]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.thejournal.ie/mcguinness-adams-2630892-Feb2016/

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Thanks for the answers. One other question just for fun: which politician/party is equivalent to Sanders/Paul? (i.e. They have a lot of young, loud supporters and do much better on the internet than in real life?)

In the last year the Social Democrats have sort of fit into that pattern.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Donegal: Thomas Pringle (IND) wins the final seat over the second Sinn Fein candidate. Final Result: 2FF 1FG 1SF 1IND

[Oakvale]

Thanks for the answers. One other question just for fun: which politician/party is equivalent to Sanders/Paul? (i.e. They have a lot of young, loud supporters and do much better on the internet than in real life?)

In the last year the Social Democrats have sort of fit into that pattern.

I think SF fit that better actually since the Social Democrats actually did do very well whereas SF kind of deflated in the last few months.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Thanks for the answers. One other question just for fun: which politician/party is equivalent to Sanders/Paul? (i.e. They have a lot of young, loud supporters and do much better on the internet than in real life?)

In the last year the Social Democrats have sort of fit into that pattern.

I think SF fit that better actually since the Social Democrats actually did do very well whereas SF kind of deflated in the last few months.

Oh yes, I forgot about Shinnerbots. The worst.