Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[Јas]

Just Dublin Bay North (with its huge ballot paper), Louth, Cavan-Monaghan, Longford-Westmeath and Healy-Raeland still without a first count result

Saving the best to last... the Rae-volution is on its way.

[YL]

Kildare South, count 4, quota 9,197, 3 seater

Heydon (FG) 10,321 and elected
O'Loughlin (FF) 7,905
Ó Feargaíl (FF) 7,166
Ryan (SF) 5,434
Wall (Lab) 5,154

Next step is the distribution of the FG surplus; I imagine this will move Wall ahead of Ryan and keep him in the race for a bit longer.

Indeed, count 5, two seats left

O'Loughlin 8149
Ó Feargaíl 7343
Wall 5806
Ryan 5485 and out

[Vosem]

Kildare South, count 4, quota 9,197, 3 seater

Heydon (FG) 10,321 and elected
O'Loughlin (FF) 7,905
Ó Feargaíl (FF) 7,166
Ryan (SF) 5,434
Wall (Lab) 5,154

Next step is the distribution of the FG surplus; I imagine this will move Wall ahead of Ryan and keep him in the race for a bit longer.

Indeed, count 5, two seats left

O'Loughlin 8149
Ó Feargaíl 7343
Wall 5806
Ryan 5485 and out

The SF votes probably go to FF ahead of Labour, right?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Wicklow's second count has seen Sean Brady (SF) and Simon Harris (FG) elected. The count has now adjourned for the night. Expect more adjournments over the next hour or so.

[YL]

Dublin Bay South Count 1

FG * Murphy , E 16.5% 6567
FG O'Connell , K 13.6% 5399
FF O'Callaghan , J 11.5% 4575
GP Ryan , E 11.4% 4529
RN * Creighton , L 10.7% 4229
LAB * Humphreys , K 10.6% 4205
SF Andrews , C 9.5% 3774
SD Lynch , G 6.7% 2652
AAA-PBP Mooney , A 4.4% 1728
IND Flynn , M 3.8% 1525

terrible result for lucinda.

Eamon Ryan must be in a strong position here for the Greens.

[ObserverIE]

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http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/comment-analysis/fionnan-sheahan-on-fgs-disastrous-strategy-coveney-varadkar-and-fitzgerald-emerge-with-little-credit-34492568.html

Well. I. Never.

This was the most metropolitan middle-class government in my lifetime, which seemed entirely concerned with looking after the economic interests of the metropolitan middle-classes and pandering to the whims and prejudices of the metropolitan middle-classes, all the while as the rest of the country sat outside in the cold and seethed.

And they're surprised that FF are back? Seriously?

[Јas]

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https://twitter.com/Evanis/status/703642121681637376

[YL]

Dublin West, count 4, 4 seater, quota 8391

Varadkar (FG) 9021 and elected
Chambers (FF) 7330
Coppinger (AAA-PBP) 7011
Burton (Lab) 6769
Donnelly (SF) 6188
McGuinness (Ind Alliance) 3405 and out
O'Gorman (Green) 2088 and out

[DavidB.]

Wow, that is quite a surprise, to me at least.

I have always been skeptical about the idea that FF would be toxic for transfers this time (some polls also indicated that FF would get quite some transfers) -- after all, the government was unpopular and it was the main opposition party, so sometimes it's just that simple. However, given the fierce anti-SF campaign I am a bit surprised that SF does relatively well (or at least not visibly worse than other parties) with non-first-preference SF voters too.

[SATW]

Sad to see Alan Shatter lose re-election

[DavidB.]

I am still wondering how parties try to maximize their number of TDs in constituencies. I have seen they sometimes try to convince voters from certain areas within the constituency to vote for candidate X and voters from other areas for candidate Y. Is this widespread? And are there any other tactics?

Sad to see Alan Shatter lose re-election

Yes, it seems a large percentage of the Irish electorate has Failed once again.

[YL]

Dublin Central count 6, 3 seater, quota 5,922

McDonald (SF) elected
Donohoe (FG) 3,945
Gannon (SD) 2,832
Fitzpatrick (FF) 2,655
Burke (Ind) 2,503
O'Sullivan (Ind) 2,377
Costello (Lab) 2,281
Perry (Ind) 1,492 to be eliminated

Count 7

Donohoe 3480
Gannon 3117
Burke 2822
Fitzpatrick 2810
O'Sullivan 2792
Costello 2345 and out

Counts 8 and 9 (McDonald's surplus)

Donohoe 4481
Gannon 3549
O'Sullivan 3214
Burke 3083
Fitzpatrick 2984 and out

[Јas]

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http://liveblog.irishtimes.com/84df9cbebb/LIVE-Election-2016-Count/

[DavidB.]

I don't understand why he mentions his function as Taoiseach. If FF becomes the largest party, which afaik cannot be ruled out at this point, Kenny won't lead the government formation process, right? Or how does this exactly work?

[DavidB.]

Wow, I find Kenny's tone in the interview to be extraordinarily smug for a politician, I am amazed (and the RTÉ journalist was impolite, and her questions very insinuating).

[YL]

Dublin West, count 4, 4 seater, quota 8391

Varadkar (FG) 9021 and elected
Chambers (FF) 7330
Coppinger (AAA-PBP) 7011
Burton (Lab) 6769
Donnelly (SF) 6188
McGuinness (Ind Alliance) 3405 and out
O'Gorman (Green) 2088 and out

Now finished, with Coppinger, Chambers and Burton elected on the fifth count, Burton 918 ahead of Donnelly.

Burton is the first Labour TD elected.

[MaxQue]

Dublin West, count 4, 4 seater, quota 8391

Varadkar (FG) 9021 and elected
Chambers (FF) 7330
Coppinger (AAA-PBP) 7011
Burton (Lab) 6769
Donnelly (SF) 6188
McGuinness (Ind Alliance) 3405 and out
O'Gorman (Green) 2088 and out

Now finished, with Coppinger, Chambers and Burton elected on the fifth count, Burton 918 ahead of Donnelly.

Burton is the first Labour TD elected.

Terrible. PASOK needed to be eradicated.

[YL]

Kildare South, count 4, quota 9,197, 3 seater

Heydon (FG) 10,321 and elected
O'Loughlin (FF) 7,905
Ó Feargaíl (FF) 7,166
Ryan (SF) 5,434
Wall (Lab) 5,154

Next step is the distribution of the FG surplus; I imagine this will move Wall ahead of Ryan and keep him in the race for a bit longer.

Indeed, count 5, two seats left

O'Loughlin 8149
Ó Feargaíl 7343
Wall 5806
Ryan 5485 and out

The SF votes probably go to FF ahead of Labour, right?

Wall got 1058 and the two FFers got 625 and 877 respectively, so they are both elected, and this constituency finishes 2 FF 1 FG.

[Јas]

Joan Burton re-elected at the close of counting in Dublin West.

She narrowly escapes becoming the third Tánaiste in a row to lose her seat.

She may however become the least successful Irish Labour leader ever.
The marker there is the 7 seats Labour won in 1932 from 7.7% of the vote.
The lowest ever vote share for Labour was 5.7% in 1933 which got them 8 seats.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Worst news of the day: Paul Gogarty is knocked out.

[YL]

Dublin Mid West, count 7, 4 seater, quota 8,621

Ó Brion (SF) elected
Fitzgerald (FG) elected
Curran (FF) 7,218
Kenny (AAA-PBP) 5,474
McNally (SD) 2,867
Gogarty (IA) 2,741
Keating (FG) 2,653
Tuffy (Lab) 2,355
Timmons (Ind) 1,318
Hennessy (WP) 613
Kivlehan (Green) 443
last two to be eliminated

Count 8 has been completed with no change in the order.  Timmons next to go.

Count 9, 2 seats left

Curran 7383
Kenny 6331
McNally 3235
Gogarty 3164
Keating 2725
Tuffy 2515 and out

Count 10, Keating overtook Gogarty

Curran 7685
Kenny 6542
McNally 3679
Keating 3640
Gogarty 3505 and out

Hard to see it not being Curran and Kenny getting the last two seats

[YL]

Apparently they are having a recheck in Kerry before the first count is announced: "at least another hour".

[Јas]

I don't understand why he mentions his function as Taoiseach. If FF becomes the largest party, which afaik cannot be ruled out at this point, Kenny won't lead the government formation process, right? Or how does this exactly work?

There isn't really a formal formation process.

The new Dáil will convene on 10 March.
First order of business will be electing a Chair (known by the Irish language title, Ceann Comhairle).

Second order of business will be electing a Taoiseach.
Each party is entitled to submit a nominee, each of which gets an up or down vote until someone gets a majority in favour. The house may adjourn if its clear nobody can get such a majority.

Until such time as someone gets such a majority, Kenny will remain as acting Taoiseach.

[YL]

Carlow-Kilkenny, 5 seater, quota 11669, count 8:

McGuinness (FF) 11903 and elected
Funchion (SF) 10970
Aylward (FF) 10030
O'Connor (FF) 9049
Phelan (FG) 8450
Deering (FG) 6940
Fitzgerald (FG) 5721
Phelan (Lab) 5596 and out

[DavidB.]

I don't understand why he mentions his function as Taoiseach. If FF becomes the largest party, which afaik cannot be ruled out at this point, Kenny won't lead the government formation process, right? Or how does this exactly work?

There isn't really a formal formation process.

The new Dáil will convene on 10 March.
First order of business will be electing a Chair (known by the Irish language title, Ceann Comhairle).

Second order of business will be electing a Taoiseach.
Each party is entitled to submit a nominee, each of which gets an up or down vote until someone gets a majority in favour. The house may adjourn if its clear nobody can get such a majority.

Until such time as someone gets such a majority, Kenny will remain as acting Taoiseach.

Thanks for explaining this