Democratic MI/MS election results thread (first results @8pm ET)

[IceSpear]

I have a feeling Bernie will win Michigan.  Lets hope I'm right!

Well, who can argue with that?

[IceSpear]

I have a feeling this could end up like Massachusetts - Clinton was supposed to romp there, and it ended up being very close. That said, I think she will have a decisive win, at least 52 to 48.

Um... MA was always going to be close?

I think this really is a case of margins. This is a big delegate state and a strong Clinton result will really screw Sanders leading into 15 March. I do think a 12-16% win is reasonable to expect. Anything closer than that Sanders will call a moral win, bigger than than... unlikely, but really hurts Sanders with similar states coming up.

MI is a state that Bernie needed to win even before he severely underperformed in the South. Which means he needs to win it even more now, and by a sizable margin. A Hillary win of any size would not be any type of victory, moral or otherwise.

[IceSpear]

I have a feeling this could end up like Massachusetts - Clinton was supposed to romp there, and it ended up being very close. That said, I think she will have a decisive win, at least 52 to 48.

Um... MA was always going to be close?

I think this really is a case of margins. This is a big delegate state and a strong Clinton result will really screw Sanders leading into 15 March. I do think a 12-16% win is reasonable to expect. Anything closer than that Sanders will call a moral win, bigger than than... unlikely, but really hurts Sanders with similar states coming up.

MI is a state that Bernie needed to win even before he severely underperformed in the South. Which means he needs to win it even more now, and by a sizable margin. A Hillary win of any size would not be any type of victory, moral or otherwise.

 Iowa like win tonight in Michigan would actually be very very bad for her

Iowa is actually a great example of what I'm talking about. That was supposed to be a double digit win for Bernie based on the demographics. The fact that it was actually so close was a coup for her.

Of course, if you're arguing about media narratives and momentum, you have a point.

[IceSpear]

I think we're probably looking at a 56-43 kind of result.

Even Robby Mook said it's going to be tighter

It's the expectations game. They also said they just wanted to win by more than 22 points (Bernie's NH margin) in SC.

That said, I expect a high single digit win for Hillary.

[IceSpear]

FTR, Bernie won the honest and trustworthy question 91-9 in MA.

[IceSpear]

Looks like Mississippi Democrats are being fooled for suckers.  Yawn whats new.

Nobody's getting fooled. Many (actually, most!) people just prefer Hillary Clinton. Is that so hard to understand?

[IceSpear]

It's annoying we're going to have to wait another full hour just because 4 HP counties in Michigan have their polls close at 9.

[IceSpear]

It's annoying we're going to have to wait another full hour just because 4 HP counties in Michigan have their polls close at 9.

No results? Won't some trickle in?

I think for exit polls. I could be wrong though.

[IceSpear]

I think Bernie takes this, even if the margin narrows.

Congrats to him and his supporters. One of the biggest upsets in political history. Pure craziness. He still has an extremely large uphill climb (even now, he's going to fall even further behind in delegates), but he won a state he needed to win and lives to fight another day.

I'm off to go take a drink.

[IceSpear]

I think Bernie takes this, even if the margin narrows.

Congrats to him and his supporters. One of the biggest upsets in political history. Pure craziness. He still has an extremely large uphill climb (even now, he's going to fall even further behind in delegates), but he won a state he needed to win and lives to fight another day.

I'm off to go take a drink.

It's not over yet.

It looks over from what I see. Hillary might narrow the gap, but it won't be enough.

[IceSpear]

I'm still not sure why people are ignoring the delegate math here. This does not close the gap for Sanders, not even close.

No doubt the delegate math is still extremely daunting. But this will keep him alive at the very least.

[IceSpear]

I'm still not sure why people are ignoring the delegate math here. This does not close the gap for Sanders, not even close.

This.

I've noticed that you never truly make any contributions to any discussions at all. Almost everything I've seen you do in these past few days is quote another Clinton's supporter's goalpost moving with the word "This." Why not try using your own opinions?

I just did before you posted this.

Fair enough. But still, a disproportionate amount of your posting activity is simply empty quoting other Clinton hacks.

Us "hacks" are still easily beating you Bernie "bots"

You only believe that because you seem to believe that there is no possible way for a superdelegate to switch endorsements. Yes, Clinton could theoretically reach the threshold using superdelegates, but if Sanders held the lead in pledged delegates, it's very likely that those superdelegates would switch over to Sanders. The superdelegates will likely have no effect whatsoever on the primaries.

Erm, she's going to have a ~220-230 pledged delegate lead after tonight. That's extremely difficult to overcome in a 100% proportional system.

[IceSpear]

Tonight is significant not because of delegates, not because of momentum, not because of bragging rights or upsets or whatever, but because of what it signifies. Michigan was the first big industrial Midwest state to vote. It's a harbinger of things to come in delegate-rich Illinois, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. I mean, if Sanders does as well in Cook county as he did in Wayne, he'll carry Illinois. If he does as well in Cuyahoga, he'll carry Ohio. If he does as well in Philly, he'll carry Pennsylvania. And so on. That's huge.

Hillary also won most Midwest states in 08. He has the same problem she had, but even bigger: it's not enough to overcome the Southern blowout.

[IceSpear]

MSNBC calls it for Sanders!!!

Biggest primary polling upset in modern history!!!

I'm looking forward to seeing the post mortems for this polling failure. It makes NH 08 look like a walk in the park.

[IceSpear]

Who knows if he'll get the nomination? Who knows how many states next week?

What I do know, and so should the rest of you, is that this isn't an Anti-Hillary movement. Bernie is for real and at this moment he has to be taken seriously. No state is safe for Clinton next week because the polls are not everything.

Don't get carried away now. If Mississippi was voting on the 15th rather than tonight, would the outcome there suddenly be in question?