Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[NOVA Green]

Oregon Update:

We now have Two days worth of Ballots returned (Friday 10/20 and Monday 10/23).

33,342 DEM (50.4% D)- 18,514 REP (28.0%).

This was heavily driven by 4.1% of the RVs in Multnomah County having cast ballots, vs 2.4% Statewide Ballot Returns to date.

Heavily Democratic Counties such as Benton County (3.7% Ballots returned), Hood River (5.2% Ballots Returned), and Clatsop County (4.5% of Ballots returned) add a downstate flair.

Still heavily Democratic and large population Center Lane County is only at (2.3% of Ballots returned).

Heavily Republican Linn County is sitting at 2.6% returned, while overwhelmingly Republican Douglas County (Decent Sized population center is at only 0.9% returned).

Meanwhile, we have no real answers as to heavily Dem Washington County (2.1% Returned) in Federal Elections, but is obviously a place where the 'Pubs will need to crack some major Dem margins.

Flip over to Clackamas County (2.6% Returned) Southeast Portland 'Burbs and Exurbs plus Rurals.

Deschutes clocks in at 3.1% of Ballots returned in Central Oregon (Which is one of those Counties on my Dem flip list in 2020 with Trump on the Ballot).

Jackson County (Major Pop Center in CD-02) is only at 0.7%, and Josephine is only at 0.1%.

Plenty of time on the clock here, and generally voter turnout in Oregon, even in Midterms tends to be much higher than the Average, especially since VbM and AVR.

We can't read too much into these numbers yet, considering that some voters in rural areas, will put their ballots in the Mailbox and pay the extra Cents, certain larger more concentrated population centers, even downstate, might be more likely to just drop it in the local drop-box on the way home from work.

Certain Counties might have sent out ballots slightly earlier than others, etc....

Looking at the major Democratic Breadbasket Multnomah County the numbers are currently 62.7% D- 15.4% R....

Take it for what it's worth, thus far, and hopefully I'll be able to provide more detailed breakdowns by party by county, once we start to see the next wave of ballots roll in through Friday.

[NOVA Green]

OREGON UPDATE--- 10/25/18:

Here is where we are at of this morning's SoS update of total ballots returned by Party with a TOTAL turnout to date of 8.7%:



Now, let's look at the numbers by Oregon RV by Party in a VBM and AVR State:



Now, let's look at the EV to date:



Democrats appear to have an astounding, and virtually unprecedented EV lead to date....

Now, let's look at the Turnout differential to date (% of TOTAL  RV vs EV BY PARTY TO DATE)



Now, let's look at the Binary (Two-Party Returned Ballots by Party to Date by County).



This is actually a pretty astounding map for Multiple reasons:

1.) DEM leads in JACKSON and DESCHUTES, and MARION.

These are all major population centers in Downstate Oregon.

Sure, it could be that it is mainly just DEMS in places like Ashland, Bend, and Salem voting early, skewing these numbers.

2.) DEM leads in COOS, TILLAMOOK, and COLUMBIA

*** Some of this might be explained by Ancestral DEMS that have maintained their Party REG in these WWC former Union strongholds. ***

It is still noteworthy, however.

3.) These numbers don't tell the entire story, considering that currently PUBs only hold a + 10 TV lead in POLK and a + 7 TV lead in WASCO.

4.) PUBS must be most worried about CLACKAMAS, considering that DEMS are currently at 45.3% of TV Ballots returned to date vs 33.8% of TV Ballots returned to date by Registered PUBs.

Sure it could just be DEM strongholds in NW ClackCo jumping in early, and the Rurals and Exurban 'Pub areas jumping in later, but still worthy of mention.

5.) I'm starting to wonder to what extent Buehler is taking some hits from Evangelicals considering his support for Female Reproductive Rights during the May '18 OR-GOV Primary, and current political positioning.

Another Anti-Abortion measure is on the Ballot in Oregon, which is one of the most pro-choice states in the Union, and especially in light of his attempt to pivot centrist, will weigh on the minds of many voters after the recent Supreme Court Nomination battle....

Here's a link to a few maps I posted on "Culture War" Ballot Measures in Oregon over the decades...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=288717.50

Now, let's look at a map of OR-MAY '18 GOV PUB PRIMARY performance by County.



Look at a map of OR-MAY '18 GOV DEM PRIMARY performance by County (Hint: Ancestral DEMs stand out here).



6.) Now, in many parts of "Downstate Oregon", there are a significant number of Seniors, as Younger folks leave their communities for the "Big Cities" within the region.

We had a Special Election in Oregon on 1/23/18, (Ballot Measure #101) which was a relatively low turnout affair to protect the Oregon Health Plan, regardless of Republican attempts to gut the program.

This was an item where there was a much higher % of Seniors than average as an overall composition of the electorate.

Approves temporary assessments to fund health care for low-income individuals and families, and to stabilize
health insurance premiums. Temporary assessments on insurance companies, some hospitals, and other providers
of insurance or health care coverage. Insurers may not increase rates on health insurance premiums by more than
1.5 percent as a result of these assessments

I couldn't easily find the map I generated by County, but here's the link to the official OR SoS PDF by County.

https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/results/january-2018-results.pdf

How to continue to provide updates from OR....

NoVA GREEN

[NOVA Green]

OREGON UPDATE--- 10/26/18 EARLY VOTES BY MAIL

So massive dump of Mail In ballots since my last post Yesterday....

Currently we now have 13.3% of TOTAL Ballots returned in Oregon, and Democrats hold a + 50k Vote lead over Republicans...



DEM's currently hold a + 3.6% DEM Voter Turnout Advantage in Oregon when looking at the Total number of Registered DEMs / TOTAL number of REG DEM ballots returned vs RV REP / TOTAL REP Ballots returned...

Now let's look at the Turnout Advantage to Date by County in a Binary DEM vs REP scenario...



These numbers don't tell the entire story that I'm looking at, but regardless Early VbM numbers are looking extremely favorable for Democrats in Oregon, (Although is not necessarily an indicator of the OR-GOV Election Results)...

[NOVA Green]

OREGON- VOTE BY MAIL UPDATE 10/30/18 (AM)

Big dump of ballots to reflect votes mailed / dropped in neighborhood ballot collection boxes over the Weekend...

21.5% of Ballots have now been "officially received" by County Election offices.

DEMS currently lead in turnout by + 77.7k votes and + 13.1% D Margins (45.2% D- 32.1% R- 22.7% Other).




This only tells a small part of the Story.... now let's look at the Vote Share to date by Party REG, first wave of EVs, and then the large dump earlier today...



So, the curious thing about Oregon is not only that it is a 100% Vote by Mail (VbM) State, but additionally is now an Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) State, where every transaction that an Oregonian has with the State DMV as a Legal Resident of the State, will automatically register them to vote unless they chose to "opt-out".

If the Individual does not select to "opt-out" they will automatically be placed on the voter rolls as an NAV and the ballot will be sent to their home address on record that the Oregon DMV has on file.

What this has meant is a surge in voter registration, and likely voter turnout will be lower as an overall % in '18 compared to '14, although overall numbers will likely be higher....

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/02/us/politics/oregon-voter-registration.html

I am extremely curious about '14 vs '18 overall comparisons in Oregon as a direct result of this law, which other States in our Great Nation are considering as well....

Now let's look at the current "Enthusiasm Gap" by County in Oregon.

This is a calculation that takes the total # of REG DEM / # of EV DEM Ballots Received MINUS the # of REG REP / # of EV REP Ballots received.



These numbers obviously do not appear to be particularly friendly to Republicans at this fixed point in time and space...

Sure, in a Gubernatorial Election, in theory the 'Pubs might be able to swing enough Indies in Metro PDX, Mid-Valley, Southern Oregon, and Central Oregon to make the math work...

Certainly we need need to consider the Ancestral DEM voters of places like Columbia and Coos Counties, as well as potentially rural and small town communities in the Oregon Coast, Lane, Linn and Clackamas County, etc

Regardless DEMs look solid in all US-CDs currently represented, and I am extremely curious about potential margins in OR-CD-02...

DEMOCRATIC Leads in Jackson and Deschutes Counties stand out dramatically....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=304960.msg6495342#msg6495342

There are obviously various State House and Senate Elections in Play in Oregon, as well as other local elections (Currently it looks like the DEM candidate for Lane County Commissioner is 50-50 to make a 3-0 D in County Government in a very rural and resourced based District in Eastern Lane County that voted for Trump by decent margins)...

Out for now...NoVa GREEN

[NOVA Green]

OREGON- VOTE BY MAIL UPDATE- 10/31/18

24.0% of Registered Voters have now returned their ballots officially into the hands of County Election Offices.

DEMS currently lead in Turnout by + 85.7k Votes.

Electorate to date is (45.0% D, 32.1% R, 22.9% OTHER)   +12.9% D LEAD

The DEM Margin lead will likely continue to shrink as REG NAVs/IND, and 3rd Party Voters start voting in greater numbers as they typically do closer to Election Day.

Turnout: 30.4 % of DEMs have already returned ballots vs 24.3% of PUBS and 16.8% of NAV/IND/3rd Party.

Let's look at the Graph of the Total Vote Returned by Party Registration with 10/30 vs 10/31 numbers, and raw % margins as proportion of overall Ballot Turnout.



So DEM TO numbers vs REP TO numbers dropped slightly (0.1-0.2% rounding), but DEMS still added an additional +10k RAW VOTE LEAD vs PUBS out of another ~70k Votes banked.

Sure in the OR-GOV election in theory PUBS might be able to capture 15% of REG DEMS in a best case scenario (Looking at Kate Brown's performance in the DEM primary in places like Linn County for example), and win 60% of NAV/Indies, but still even in that extreme scenario DEMs already lead by 85k Votes!!!

Ok--- that combined with the Democratic > Republican voter gap, in theory could present a scenario where suddenly there is a surge of PUB voters in the next short week.

Well, let's look at the Voter Turnout % by County to date:



One of the items that stands out dramatically are the Turnout numbers in Jackson and Deschutes specifically, considering these two counties account for an extremely large % of the Vote in OR-CD-'02.

My numbers from Yesterday called out the Turnout Gap in Jackson and Deschutes that just today went from a +2.2% DEM TO lead in Deschutes to a +2.6% DEM LEAD.

Jackson goes from a +4.4% D lead to a +4.5% D Lead....

Although unfortunately I can't track these numbers by CD-02, let alone by precinct/city, the results from OR CD-02 might well be closer than many have expected considering that DEM enthusiasm appears to be much higher in the major population centers of the district, despite it's reputation as a "Mountain West" style district.

Perhaps not a surprise, but we have yet to see a major "Latino Surge" among the Counties of the Columbia River Gorge, and SE Oregon, where in theory Latinos have some of the highest population percentages of most places in Oregon.

At this point, we have yet to see these results, although I recognize that in many parts of the Gorge and SE OR, there is large Latino Population that are Agricultural Guest-Workers with Mexican Visas under H 2-A.

Additionally, we need to look at Marion County which has a current voter turnout rate of only 21.9% and Washington County with a current voter turnout rate of only 19.3% (Despite being one of the most HRC Counties in Oregon!!!).

Time will tell, but bottom line working-class Oregonians are most likely to have shifted addresses, not updated their stuff with the DMV, and the Working Class population of Oregon is starting to become increasingly Latino at a statewide level among Registered Oregon Voters, especially among Younger Voters (Millennial and Gen Z).

I could go through the numbers further, but Knute needs to not only do well among Ancestral Dems in Small-Town & Rural "Downstate Oregon", win big among Indies "Downstate", AND generate decent margins among REG NAV/IND especially in Metro PDX.

Also, OR- CD-02 might well be a giant wild card with a prep DEM re-run in 2020 with Trump on the Ballot with higher turnout, AND we have a decent chance of flipping a State 'Pub seat in Nov '18 in the Factory Town in Downstate where I currently reside...

[NOVA Green]

Is there a universe in which Latino turnout surges but they don't lean heavily D?

Latino Voter Turnout surges, especially in Texas are correlated with a dramatic increase in working-class Latinos voting, that at least in Tejas, tend to be much more overwhelmingly Democratic than Middle-Class and Upper-Middle Class Latinos, where Republicans (at least traditionally) in the State have tended to perform fairly well among that Demographic...

Too lazy to search through to find relevant Academic articles on this subject from back when I lived in Tejas in the early 2010s in Houston, but I'm sure they are still floating around the "Blogosphere somewhere"....

Sure most of y'all posting on this thread are likely well aware of that, but there are tons of folks that lurk that might not be aware of that basic fact of Texas Latino Voting patterns in particular (Not that this pattern doesn't exist elsewhere in many parts of the US as well...)

So yeah... anyone who has questions on the subject can always take a vape rip or two spend an hour researching this subject from publicly available academic sourcing from articles that have been published over the past 10-15 Years.

Anyone out there looking for a Masters or PHD in Poly-Sci on Atlas, might well consider this as a potential research thesis, considering that this is still a hot topic (Perhaps even more so than it was when Bush Jr was Pres), and Academic Careers have been built on this very subject.

[NOVA Green]

Ok--- I know most of y'all are most focused on the hot button elections for US-SEN and GOVs in large States, etc.... but still being the Oregon Election addict I am, feel the moral obligation to share the latest Vote-by-Mail update from the great State of Oregon.

OREGON- NOV '18 GE UPDATE- EV data posted on the OR-SoS site as of 18:00 PST.



+ 124k Votes added since Yesterdays Update....  DEM RAW VOTE margins over REP RAW VOTE MARGINS increase from 85.7k to 98.5k.... (Crazy....)

In terms of % Binary Margins DEMS now only lead by +12.5% D vs +12.9% D Yesterday and + 13.0% D on 10/30 SoS Update.

Now, time to look at the overall Turnout to Date in Oregon by Party contrasted against RV numbers as a % of Total Registered Voters:



So, what we see here is that the Democrats have increased their % of DEM REG Voters compared to REP REG Voters from 35.8% of DEMs having already cast ballots vs 28.8% of PUBS.... MISC are now at 20.2%.

The Graph on the left are REG VOTERS by PARTY as a % of TOT REG VOTERS....

Ok--- on paper these numbers look extremely difficult for 'PUBS to overcome in a Statewide Election (OR-GOV), unless there is a combination of not only "Ancestral DEMS" in places like Coos, Columbia, Linn, Waco, Tillamook, etc voting in extremely high % numbers for Knute, combined with a minimal defection of REG PUBs from Metro PDX, and some of the larger Pop Centers in Downstate, and Knute winning 60% of Indies (Think Metro PDX especially).

Fine....

Let's look at the Total % of DEM Turnout by County of RV/EV (11/1 numbers, but OR always runs in arrears).



Ok--- where are the major gaps in DEM Turnout???

Heavily concentrated in the Willamette Valley, including the PDX "'Burbs" of Washington County, Multco (Heavily PDX), as well as the heavily Middle-Age and Younger parts of the Mid-Valley (Including places with significant Latino % of VAP)...

We see similar patterns of RV/EV DEM Turnout in heavily Latino places in Eastern Oregon, where DEMS are becoming a much larger slice of the electorate (Morrow, Umatilla, Malheur, & Crook).

In parts of Oregon with larger Senior Populations, we see extremely High levels of DEM turnout in the NW Coast, SW Oregon Coast, Grain Country in the Columbia River Gorge, and places like (Lake, Wallowa, & Harney), etc....

So--- overall DEM vs REP TO numbers went from a + 2.5% GAP on 10/30 numbers and are now a   
 + 6.9% D TO GAP based upon the 1/11 numbers.

Meanwhile the only places where the DEMs gained on the TO GAP were a small handful of rural Counties, but did increase numbers significantly in a handful of places:

Multnomah: + 0.2% D > Increase (10/30-11/1)
Washington: +0.1% D > Increase (10/30-11/1)
Benton: + 0.9% D > Increase (10/30-11/1)
Lane: + 0.2% D > Increase (10/30-11/1)
Yamhill: +0.3% D > Increase (10/30-11/1)

Problem for 'Pubs is these "handful of counties account for a significant chunk of the Vote Share in Oregon, and additionally indicate potential weaknesses among Indie Voters in the OR-GOV election, which is why Dem's slapped an additional +10k votes in the bank Yesterday...

All is not lost for the 'Pubs however, we saw movements when it comes to RV REP vs DEM TO in favor of the 'Pubs in Deschutes, Jackson, and Clackamas towards the 'Pubs, so maybe the Turnout Gap might be correcting in these relatively large Pop Centers....

Still, I would much rather be Kate Brown sitting with a +100k Dem lead in the bank, knowing that Knute would really have to run up the score with Indies and 'Pubs, and swing a pretty heft chunk of Ancestral Dems, minimize losses from 'PUB defections in places like Happy Valley, Lake Oswego, and certain precincts in West /SW PDX, North Eugene, East Medford, etc.

More to come....

[NOVA Green]

@NOVA what does the OR legislature look like? Any gains for Democrats you think are likely?

OR-Senate District 3 is certainly a possibility. It's an open seat that was represented by a Republican that includes Ashland, Medford, and some surrounding rural areas and smaller towns.

Most of the population lives in the Belt from Medford to Ashland...

Although Medford is the largest City in Oregon to vote it for Trump, he still won it with less than 50% of the Vote. It's also a relatively fast growing City.

Ashland is an overwhelmingly Democratic stronghold, and EV numbers overall point to an extremely strong DEM performance in Jackson County to date.

State Senate District 10 could potentially be interesting in a wave election, represented by a Republican in a fairly Democratic District including Salem & Keizar.

https://ballotpedia.org/Jackie_Winters

Still Jackie is fairly popular and has a reputation as a Liberal Republican, who frequently crosses over to vote for key Democratic policy initiatives.

Thus far Turnout in Marion has been lower than statewide averages, likely being driven down a bit by Turnout in the City of Salem, which is a relatively solidly Democratic City, but with a relatively large Younger and Latino population.

South Salem isn't as heavily Democratic as some other parts of the City, and there are some "exurban" type places within the LD.

It does include the City of Independence, which is basically a Sister City of Monmouth, and hence has a decent Student, Staff, and Faculty presence and pretty solidly Democratic City in most partisan elections.

(Unfortunately I can't break down turnout by Cities within Oregon at this point, solely by County so it gets trickier to assess based upon Early VbM numbers).

State Senate District 13 is tougher than it might appear on paper....

Sure it has a sliver of Democratic Hillsboro....

Wilsonville is a fairly fast growing Exurban City, which has gone from being a Republican stronghold in the late '80s and most of '90s to becoming a DEM leaning City.

Newburg in Yamhill County is an extremely fast growing Exurban City on the SW fringes of Metro Portland, and has started to shift Democratic at a fairly decent clip within just the past Decade.

Keizer is the largest population center within the District and is relatively WWC in terms of Educational and Occupational classifications (Although not nearly as Old as many lumped into the WWC Demographic.). It voted for Trump by ~ 10% in '16, and although I don't have the numbers at my fingertips it was less than 50% PUB, with significant 3rd Party defections. It's also a fairly "swingy" kind of place.

Where I say the District can get tricky is that the rural areas floating around the district are heavily Republican farming type precincts, and in statewide elections you're generally not going to see the types of farming in the Willamette Valley swing DEM (Other than maybe some Christmas Tree and Marijuana farmers, organic farmers, etc).  Grass-seed/Grains and livestock farmers in the Mid Valley tend to vote heavily Republican.

State Senate District 20 is an interesting DEM pickup concept....

It has a decent chunk of DEM strongholds in NW ClackCo, but also some of the most Republican rural parts of the County.

State Senate District 26 is potentially a more feasible DEM pickup opportunity, considering that it is a pretty solidly Lean DEM district overall in most elections both Federal and State elections.

You have a nice decent chunk of outer SE PDX, (Which is not an overwhelmingly Democratic part of the City), some relatively affluent, educated, and fast growing Exurbs out in Happy Valley/Damascus, and then the district stretches East and includes a wide variety of Rural Communities, and the Democratic stronghold of Hood River County.

So, to summarize:

1.) The battle to gain a Democratic Super-Majority in the OR-SEN is being fought on generally positive terrain for the Democrats in terms of Federal Level Elections


2.) The Portland Exurbs will be key to any massive breakthrough in the OR-SEN for the DEMs (And quite possibly the OR-GOV race). These are precisely the types of communities where we saw some of the biggest swings at the US PRES from '12 > '16 towards the DEMs.

*IF* OR DEMS can breakthrough at a Statewide level in these types of Communities, will likely play a key roll.

3.) Trump's regressive Taxation policies are likely to hit hard in many of these Districts, especially when the Taxman comes around in April... (Oregon has now Sales Taxes, a relatively high but progressive State Income Tax, doesn't mess around with fees for GVT services like many other States).

4.) These voters want services from Government, such as K-12 Schools, Roads that are maintained for frequently long commutes, etc...

5.) If the Federal Government can't provide these services, Exurban communities will expect State Government to provide the funding gap, and will likely be extremely pissed off about any "local candidate" with an (R) next to their name on the ballot, because of the flawed priorities of Republicans at the Federal Level.

6.) Will it happen in Oregon at the Statewide level in 2018? IDK... if not 2020 will be a Year or reckoning in my home State.

Anyways... I'll have to take a peak at state House races this weekend, but that's at least a sneak preview of places we might see DEM gains to gain a Super-Majority in the OR-State SEN.

NoVA GREEN

[NOVA Green]

OR- NOV 18 GE UPDATE- NUMBERS as of SoS office posted 11/02/18 8:23 AM PST

Overall another decent day of ballots received, which is not unusual at this point in the race...

Another 94.2k ballots received, which isn't bad considering the early posing timestamp on the report.

DEM raw vote margins or PUB votes increased + 7k from 11/1 for a total binary DEM lead of +105.5k DFriday AM up from +98.5k D on Thursday.



   

Registered DEMs currently represent 44.3% of the total vote cast vs. 32.3% PUB and 23.4% NAV/3rd Party Voters.

DEMs currently lead 11.9% over PUBS as a % of total ballots cast.

I expect DEM % margins to continue sliding down for two main reasons:

1.) IND voters tend to vote later in the voting cycle than DEMs and REPs, so this will naturally lead to a greater decrease in DEM vote share (Since it is significantly higher than PUBs in OR).

2.) DEMs thus far have turned out in higher numbers than PUBS as a % of RV/EV (Which we'll get to in more detail shortly).

This isn't necessarily positive news for PUBs however, since a decrease in DEM % margins does not equal yet to a decrease in DEM raw vote margins.

It is particularly challenging for Buehler, since at this point to win statewide the math would likely have to involve a 15-20% defection of DEMs > REP, complete consolidation of the PUB base, and sweeping IND voters by huge margins....

TURNOUT UPDATE BY PARTY- 11/02 AM UPDATE





Ok--- So here we see that DEMs currently have a significant Turnout Advantage compared to Registered Republicans.

40% of DEMs have already had their ballots received by County Election Clerks vs 32.4% of PUBs and 22.9% of NAV / 3rd Party RVs.

Not only that, but the DEM vs PUB Turnout gap has continued to grow every day since 10/30 when it was only a +5.6% DEM vs PUB Turnout (TO) gap to a + 7.3% D TO Gap as of 11/2 AM.

This is in stark contrast to a DEM RV lead of only + 3.8% D as of 10/28.

So What's going on here?

Let's look at the Turnout Gap by County to see what opportunities might exist for Republicans to make overall gains....



Ok--- now, some folks might be confused and look at this map and say "What NoVA GREEN, that doesn't make tons of sense, just previously you showed that currently REG DEMs lead REG PUBs by +7.3% DEM, but this map doesn't reflect anything of that nature....

Key is look at where the DEMs lead in the Turnout GAP....

Collectively the three main counties of Metro Portland (PDX): Multnomah, Washington, and Clackamas, typically account for roughly 45% of the total state vote share in most elections...

1.) Multnomah: + 0.9% D vs R vote gap is huge in terms of overall DEM votes in OR
2.) Washington: + 0.6% D vs R Vote gap
3.) Clackamas: + 1.3% D vs R Vote gap

These are the very places where Buehler would need to perform well.

Now, let's move further downstate:

1.) Marion County: + 1.1% R vs D Vote gap

Key question here is what extent is this because of Rurals and smaller town parts of Marion, and highly DEM propensity voters in Salem are waiting until the last minute? (Entirely plausible, but remains to be seen if this is a place where in a non-PRES election year, we might well expect to see lower levels of younger/Latino turnout).

2.) Lane County: +3.2% D vs R Voter Gap

3.) Jackson County: +4.0% D vs R Voter Gap

4.) Deschutes County: +2.2% D vs R Voter Gap

So basically, the largest population centers in the State are currently experiencing a massive DEM vs PUB vote gap....

Now if we move down to relatively large (But more "Medium Sized Counties"), LINN and DOUGLAS we see PUBs with a +2.2 % R / +2.3% R vote gap...

These are both heavily Republican Counties, with significant rural components as % of County Vote Share, and even the respective largest Cities are Republican in most Statewide elections ( Albany & Roseburg), although do vote for Democrats for US-SEN and US-REP generally speaking....

Coastal Oregon is interesting, since not only is DEM Turnout higher in traditionally DEM counties, but also in Counties that have tended in recent years to support PUBs in many elections (Tillamook, Coos, Curry, etc...).

What I suspect is going on there is that because of the high % of Seniors along the Oregon Coast, that Health Care might well be a major issue, and impacting the overall "Republican brand", even among a chunk of their own voters....

DEM TO leads in Wallowa County are likely similarly explained.

Union County DEM TO lead might well be explained by a significant College student presence in La Grande, combined with a relatively high % of Public Sector employees overall.

NOW TIME TO LOOK AT POTENTIAL cannibalization of DEM Votes, by measuring shifts in DEM vs REP TO Margins from 10/31- 11/2....



This map suddenly starts to look potentially much more favorable towards PUBs, since it shows the trends over the past few days where a huge chunk of votes were cast...

Republicans have been making up the Turnout Gap dramatically at the County level in most parts of Oregon over the past week...

Problem is the trendline is moving the opposite direction in MultCo and WashCo, and the Northern Coastal Areas of Oregon.

Still, although the PUBs might well be able to close the Turnout Gap in many parts of Oregon, it is extremely doubtful that will be sufficient for Statewide races (OR-GOV, PUB sponsored ballot initiatives on Taxes, Abortion, and Immigration).

Additionally, there are key OR State Senate Districts that could well flip in Metro PDX, and potentially one in Southern Oregon that could give the DEMs a Super-Majority in the OR- State Senate....

Although Greg Walden is heavily favored for the US-HOUSE in OR-CD-02, all it takes are massive swings in Jackson and Deschutes, combined with keeping PUB margins low elsewhere, and flipping a high enough % of PUB leaning Indies to make it a Mid Single Digit race.

Since it's the Weekend before Election Day, and don't have to work today, had a few hours to spare running through numbers in greater detail, so here's one last map, which is the current breakdown of Votes Cast by Party as a % of the Total Vote (DEM-REP-IND in numbering conventions apply).

TOTAL TO % RV / % REG DEM- REG PUB- REG OTHER



So, if nothing else, something to throw in your Vape and ponder on... unfortunately I haven't located a method to break EV numbers down to the precinct based level yet, which is really where we might be able to talk in greater detail about State House and Senate level elections....

NoVA GREEN

[NOVA Green]

OREGON- 11/2/18 PM UPDATE: (Based upon County Data not yet uploaded to OR-SoS server)

Oregon Secretary of State doesn't update results over the Weekend, and obviously these "lazy public sector workers living off their posh wages and benefits have much better things to do, than provide updates to the Citizens of Oregon on the last election weekend" (Right--- we have a right to know these matters in order to prevent interference in the elections of Ecotopia you see)...

So, anyways aside from the joke above, we do have some numbers that I mined off of County websites regarding Total Vote numbers by many counties received through EOD 11/2/18....

The data that I do have does not break down upon partisan affiliation, but does at least create additional data point(s), and might provide a greater idea of what overall turnout modelling might look like in Oregon once all the votes are received and counted.

OK--- Let's start with a Map of Registered Voters by County in Oregon as of Oct 31st, 2018 as a % of TOTAL COUNTY VOTE SHARE...



So basically the Counties in Gray are virtually irrelevant to the outcomes of Statewide elections....

Although collectively they account for 6.1% of the RV Vote Share in Oregon as of October 2018, these are generally strongly Republican Counties, where the main question in general would be the extent of the PUB margins and Turnout, rather than the *IF* flip scene.

Generally most of these counties would only really be relevant politically in an OR-CD-'02 election, or an extremely close OR-GOV election or State Ballot initiative....

So... if anyone has been following my OR NOV '18 GE Turnout posts to Date, I have been extremely focused on Jackson and Deschutes County within OR CD-02 (As well as OR-GOV elections).

Jackson and Deschutes Counties alone collectively represent 10.5% of Registered Voters in Oregon, where thus far we have seen extremely high Turnout Gaps in favor of the DEMs... (Not to even get into the type of Upper-Middle Class Educated Anglo voters that have migrated to these parts of Oregon in recent years).

Now, currently 43% of RVs in OR reside in the Three Core Counties of Metro Portland (Multnomah, Washington and Clackamas)....

Marion (7.3% RV in OR) and Lane (9.4% RV in OR) stand out, as do the 10% of RVs in Mid-Valley (Yamhill, Polk, Benton, Linn)...

Now, we need to look at the current RV vs EV Vote Share by County in Oregon, to see which Counties have a significantly higher or lower % of Total Votes Returned to Date Vs TOTAL REG Voters...



So, here we see that actual RV vs EV Turnout is significantly lower in many of the most Democratic Counties within Oregon....

Washington County is HUGE, considering it represents 13.0% of RV and only 10.6% of Oregon RV ballots returned to date. It is also one of the most Democratic Counties in Oregon, so DEMS obviously need a massive pickup once all the ballots are counted Tuesday Night...

Multnomah County is also HUGE, considering that even a minus 0.3% RV/EV Vote share translates to potentially a +10k-20k drop off in DEM votes if these patterns hold come election day.

Marion County: This where we might be seeing a potential decrease in Latino Turnout, especially RV vs EV numbers.... Still plenty of young voters vote late in Oregon so a 7.3% RV vs 6.7% EV isn't necessarily indicative of anything.

Now, we do have a few additional numbers from County Websites in Oregon as of EOD Friday....

+66k New Ballots added from the following Counties....

These numbers are obviously favorable towards the Democrats, considering where the votes are coming from, meaning raw DEM numbers in MultCo and Lane County will significantly jack up DEM statewide margins, regardless...



Now let's look at the total % of ballots returned by County, using the Friday PM % numbers (RV/EV) vs the Friday AM numbers (RV/EV).



NoVA GREEN--- OFF

[NOVA Green]

Final update on TargetSmart nationwide early vote data (Focusing on the crosstab of Partisanship and Vote History) CONTINUED[size]


....[ SNIP].....

Thanks for posting all this!

Although we could certainly question their methodology, it does give us some interesting comparative data, especially for those State with a significant EV/VbM component.

[NOVA Green]

OREGON UPDATE for BALLOTS RECEIVED FROM COUNTIES to SoS 11/5/18 AM:

So huge update, from Oregon at a time where a huge chunk of ballots start to roll in before Election Day.

Oregon is a Vote by Mail State, but also includes Ballot drop boxes conveniently located in various parts of the State.

This means there might well be wide variations when it comes to exactly when ballots get technically received by the County Election Offices....

So these numbers were posted First thing Monday Morning. but likely do not include ballots not received through the Mail over the Weekend in many cases, as well as likely not including ballots deposited in drop boxes throughout the State....

So.... as of 8:15 AM according to the SoS, these are the raw numbers by party received to date:



We currently have 1.1 Million Ballots Received and Democrats lead by + 137k Votes.

This is actually pretty astounding, especially for a Mid-term election with no PRES or SEN race on the ballot....

Now let's look at total % of Votes received by the SoS by Party Registration Statewide.



Looks like the 'Pubs had a really bad day, when they needed to have a really good day....

DEMS currently lead (44.2% D) - (31.7% R)- (24.1% NAV/OTHER)   vs RV (35.6% DEM- 31.8% PUB- 32.6% NAV/OTHER).

How to explain: Let's start with the DEM vs PUB EV GAP by County to DATE---



Fine, so if one looks at the landmass of Oregon it might appear to be decent on paper, but reality is that these numbers do not appear at all to be favorable to Republican Candidates in most of the State....

Looks like Walden will likely hold on in CD-02, but Brown's margins will likely hold on +10 % D, despite the Upstate/Downstate Oregon dynamics...

Now obviously we are getting to point of discussing which Republican held OR-SEN and OR-REP seats might well flip....

Suburban PDX in WashCo and ClackCo not looking so friendly, and reality is that key OR-GOP Senate Districts are in heavily Exurban Districts in places where DJT isn't popular at all...

Other Districts in Mid-Valley held by GOP could well flip, not to mention main district in Southern Oregon (OR-SEN CD-03)....

Off for now, but at this point I'm extremely skeptical of a last minute Oregon 'Pub surge combined with massive defections of DEMs, and overwhelming Indie support.