Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal
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Author Topic: Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal  (Read 106424 times)
Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #1325 on: November 01, 2018, 07:29:35 PM »

Oh calm down 40k isnít likely but 38k is which is fine.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1326 on: November 01, 2018, 08:07:11 PM »

I want Democrats to put this race away. They are clearly not doing that. We'll have to rely on the independents to actually win this, and I don't want to bet on independents.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #1327 on: November 01, 2018, 08:12:37 PM »

I want Democrats to put this race away. They are clearly not doing that. We'll have to rely on the independents to actually win this, and I don't want to bet on independents.

Sorry, but there's always going to be some uncertainty. Democrats are always going to need some Independents, just like Republicans need some (Republicans need to win more of them in Nevada than Democrats.) If you want elections to be determined only by intelligent, rational people, I suggest looking at other countries.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1328 on: November 01, 2018, 08:17:11 PM »

I want Democrats to put this race away. They are clearly not doing that. We'll have to rely on the independents to actually win this, and I don't want to bet on independents.

Sorry, but there's always going to be some uncertainty. Democrats are always going to need some Independents, just like Republicans need some (Republicans need to win more of them in Nevada than Democrats.) If you want elections to be determined only by intelligent, rational people, I suggest looking at other countries.

This is America dammit!
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1329 on: November 01, 2018, 08:18:50 PM »

Also, in 2016 at least, the real surge in voters came in the last 2 hours of voting after people got off work. Something to look out for tonight. though of course it isn't certain to happen.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #1330 on: November 01, 2018, 08:26:27 PM »

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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #1331 on: November 01, 2018, 08:29:22 PM »



Holy hell!
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #1332 on: November 01, 2018, 08:31:43 PM »

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Antonio V
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« Reply #1333 on: November 01, 2018, 08:52:33 PM »

If you want elections to be determined only by intelligent, rational people, I suggest looking at other countries.

lol, which ones? I've been following elections around the world for almost a decade and haven't seen much rationality.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #1334 on: November 01, 2018, 09:00:21 PM »

If you want elections to be determined only by intelligent, rational people, I suggest looking at other countries.

lol, which ones? I've been following elections around the world for almost a decade and haven't seen much rationality.

Touche, but at least some countries seem to have a little more common sense than this country, thus why we don't have President Hofer or Le Pen, for example. Point is, we're always going to need to win some "Independents" to vote Democratic for Democrats to win in this country. The thing is, though, even if Heller is winning Independents by 10 (lol), he's still behind, and all indications are that Democrats are going to win Independents, by and large.

I'd still say that 40K is doable in Clark. If Democrats have a decent day, they should get to 36K, and then if turnout is high and they get a good margin, 4K is certainly possible on Friday, especially when you add absentees.
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the Laramide Erogeny ⛰ (he/him)
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« Reply #1335 on: November 01, 2018, 09:01:41 PM »



Is there a universe in which Latino turnout surges but they don't lean heavily D? Seems like if they are energized, it's more likely than not that they're energized to vote for a Democrat (/against an incumbent R) than the other way around.

If you want elections to be determined only by intelligent, rational people, I suggest looking at other countries.

lol, which ones? I've been following elections around the world for almost a decade and haven't seen much rationality.

Touche, but at least some countries seem to have a little more common sense than this country, thus why we don't have President Hofer or Le Pen, for example. Point is, we're always going to need to win some "Independents" to vote Democratic for Democrats to win in this country. The thing is, though, even if Heller is winning Independents by 10 (lol), he's still behind, and all indications are that Democrats are going to win Independents, by and large.

I'd still say that 40K is doable in Clark. If Democrats have a decent day, they should get to 36K, and then if turnout is high and they get a good margin, 4K is certainly possible on Friday, especially when you add absentees.

France doesn't have a Le Pen because its electoral system doesn't suck balls, not necessarily because it's filled with more rational people.
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« Reply #1336 on: November 01, 2018, 09:06:43 PM »

Is there a universe in which Latino turnout surges but they don't lean heavily D?

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #1337 on: November 01, 2018, 09:26:40 PM »


Latino Voter Turnout surges, especially in Texas are correlated with a dramatic increase in working-class Latinos voting, that at least in Tejas, tend to be much more overwhelmingly Democratic than Middle-Class and Upper-Middle Class Latinos, where Republicans (at least traditionally) in the State have tended to perform fairly well among that Demographic...

Too lazy to search through to find relevant Academic articles on this subject from back when I lived in Tejas in the early 2010s in Houston, but I'm sure they are still floating around the "Blogosphere somewhere".... Wink

Sure most of y'all posting on this thread are likely well aware of that, but there are tons of folks that lurk that might not be aware of that basic fact of Texas Latino Voting patterns in particular (Not that this pattern doesn't exist elsewhere in many parts of the US as well...)

So yeah... anyone who has questions on the subject can always take a vape rip or two spend an hour researching this subject from publicly available academic sourcing from articles that have been published over the past 10-15 Years.

Anyone out there looking for a Masters or PHD in Poly-Sci on Atlas, might well consider this as a potential research thesis, considering that this is still a hot topic (Perhaps even more so than it was when Bush Jr was Pres), and Academic Careers have been built on this very subject.
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GP270watch
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« Reply #1338 on: November 01, 2018, 09:48:25 PM »

I was hoping to see 2016 style footage of people turning out in droves all day long in Clark.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1339 on: November 01, 2018, 10:25:28 PM »

I want Democrats to put this race away. They are clearly not doing that. We'll have to rely on the independents to actually win this, and I don't want to bet on independents.

If you don't want to rely on independents, then I have bad news for you in AZ and FL, where Republicans actually lead in the early vote. Or in countless House districts that Dems are going to need to win the majority.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1340 on: November 01, 2018, 10:26:26 PM »

Point is, we're always going to need to win some "Independents" to vote Democratic for Democrats to win in this country. The thing is, though, even if Heller is winning Independents by 10 (lol), he's still behind, and all indications are that Democrats are going to win Independents, by and large.

All assumptions about how independents will vote are pure speculation at this point. We don't have any reliable data (the polls' subsamples are way too small to yield reliable estimate). So yeah, sure, maybe independents are voting for Rosen massively, or maybe they aren't, we just don't know.

But no, if Heller is winning big with independents, he almost certainly will win the election. He might be under now, but keep in mind that based on past elections the ED vote will be significantly more Republican than the EV.


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We'll find out soon enough. We'd definitely need at least 3K today and 4K tomorrow to get there. And even then, 40K is only a partial insurance. I was hoping for something a little above that just for extra safety.
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NUPES Enjoyer
Antonio V
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« Reply #1341 on: November 01, 2018, 10:27:26 PM »

I want Democrats to put this race away. They are clearly not doing that. We'll have to rely on the independents to actually win this, and I don't want to bet on independents.

If you don't want to rely on independents, then I have bad news for you in AZ and FL, where Republicans actually lead in the early vote. Or in countless House districts that Dems are going to need to win the majority.

Nevada is different. The early vote in other States is not even worth looking at.
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DTC
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« Reply #1342 on: November 01, 2018, 10:29:22 PM »

I want Democrats to put this race away. They are clearly not doing that. We'll have to rely on the independents to actually win this, and I don't want to bet on independents.

If you don't want to rely on independents, then I have bad news for you in AZ and FL, where Republicans actually lead in the early vote. Or in countless House districts that Dems are going to need to win the majority.

Nevada is different. The early vote in other States is not even worth looking at.


I'm pretty sure more people early vote in Arizona than Nevada... already 1.3 million votes in Arizona which is almost as much as the 1.4 million who voted in 2014

So actually Arizona matters more than NV, lol
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xingkerui
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« Reply #1343 on: November 01, 2018, 10:36:02 PM »

Point is, we're always going to need to win some "Independents" to vote Democratic for Democrats to win in this country. The thing is, though, even if Heller is winning Independents by 10 (lol), he's still behind, and all indications are that Democrats are going to win Independents, by and large.

All assumptions about how independents will vote are pure speculation at this point. We don't have any reliable data (the polls' subsamples are way too small to yield reliable estimate). So yeah, sure, maybe independents are voting for Rosen massively, or maybe they aren't, we just don't know.

But no, if Heller is winning big with independents, he almost certainly will win the election. He might be under now, but keep in mind that based on past elections the ED vote will be significantly more Republican than the EV.


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We'll find out soon enough. We'd definitely need at least 3K today and 4K tomorrow to get there. And even then, 40K is only a partial insurance. I was hoping for something a little above that just for extra safety.

Well, as I've said, if Heller wins (and Independents vote Republican), there's no blue wave, and we're probably headed for a bad night. But based on what we've seen since 2016, there's more reason to believe that they'll lean Democratic. Heller winning big among Independents, while not impossible, is highly unlikely.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1344 on: November 01, 2018, 10:37:29 PM »

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the Laramide Erogeny ⛰ (he/him)
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« Reply #1345 on: November 01, 2018, 10:40:05 PM »


Latino Voter Turnout surges, especially in Texas are correlated with a dramatic increase in working-class Latinos voting, that at least in Tejas, tend to be much more overwhelmingly Democratic than Middle-Class and Upper-Middle Class Latinos, where Republicans (at least traditionally) in the State have tended to perform fairly well among that Demographic...

Too lazy to search through to find relevant Academic articles on this subject from back when I lived in Tejas in the early 2010s in Houston, but I'm sure they are still floating around the "Blogosphere somewhere".... Wink

Sure most of y'all posting on this thread are likely well aware of that, but there are tons of folks that lurk that might not be aware of that basic fact of Texas Latino Voting patterns in particular (Not that this pattern doesn't exist elsewhere in many parts of the US as well...)

So yeah... anyone who has questions on the subject can always take a vape rip or two spend an hour researching this subject from publicly available academic sourcing from articles that have been published over the past 10-15 Years.

Anyone out there looking for a Masters or PHD in Poly-Sci on Atlas, might well consider this as a potential research thesis, considering that this is still a hot topic (Perhaps even more so than it was when Bush Jr was Pres), and Academic Careers have been built on this very subject.

Your analysis is much more coherent, but I was basing my thoughts entirely on Occam's Razor: it's simpler to assume that an energized pool of voters is Democrats (or rather, in a midterm, in the opposition party) than to assume they are Republicans/majority party, regardless of their race.
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NUPES Enjoyer
Antonio V
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« Reply #1346 on: November 01, 2018, 10:49:18 PM »

Point is, we're always going to need to win some "Independents" to vote Democratic for Democrats to win in this country. The thing is, though, even if Heller is winning Independents by 10 (lol), he's still behind, and all indications are that Democrats are going to win Independents, by and large.

All assumptions about how independents will vote are pure speculation at this point. We don't have any reliable data (the polls' subsamples are way too small to yield reliable estimate). So yeah, sure, maybe independents are voting for Rosen massively, or maybe they aren't, we just don't know.

But no, if Heller is winning big with independents, he almost certainly will win the election. He might be under now, but keep in mind that based on past elections the ED vote will be significantly more Republican than the EV.


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We'll find out soon enough. We'd definitely need at least 3K today and 4K tomorrow to get there. And even then, 40K is only a partial insurance. I was hoping for something a little above that just for extra safety.

Well, as I've said, if Heller wins (and Independents vote Republican), there's no blue wave, and we're probably headed for a bad night. But based on what we've seen since 2016, there's more reason to believe that they'll lean Democratic. Heller winning big among Independents, while not impossible, is highly unlikely.

We'll see. Again, that's just speculation. I refuse to be confident about any election outcome in the absence of hard data ever again. We've seen how far confirmation bias and wishful thinking have taken us in 2016.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1347 on: November 02, 2018, 12:03:51 AM »

Still waiting on Clark and Washoe numbers.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1348 on: November 02, 2018, 12:27:48 AM »



HOT DAMN
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #1349 on: November 02, 2018, 12:28:49 AM »



Now will you please calm the f[ink]k down??
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