SC-Data For Progress: Biden +9

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

So since tomorrow is Election Day, switching to returned ballots (plus in-person EV) makes more sense.

Based on the crosstabs we've seen from multiple polls, the EV (assuming over-representation of Sanders voters isn't a thing) would be something like Biden 40, Sanders 24.

SC Returned Mail Ballots + In-Person EV:
2016: Black 76.2%, White 23.0%, Other 0.8% (54041 votes)
2020: Black 62.1%, White 36.6%, Other 1.3% (70717 votes)

Raw Vote Change (% of '16):
Black: 106%
Hispa: 170%
Asian: 181%
Other: 191%
White: 208%

https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1233506205269733376

Quite a substantial increase in white voter share. Perhaps some of the polls that had lower AfAm vote share may not be as off in that respect as thought.

The lower the AA Turnout is, the tighter the margin between Biden and Sanders will be.

it may depend on where that lower AA turnout is.

If it's in the rural lowcountry, yeah, but if it's in Columbia, the difference will be more minor, imo.